The Doctor of Sciences estimated the probability of a collision of the asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is one of the potentially dangerous objects for the Earth, but the probability of its collision with the planet remains extremely low and does not exceed a fraction of a percent. Sergey Chumakov, Doctor of Sciences, educator and teacher, told Izvestia about this on June 30.

According to him, at the current stage of observations, the risks are assessed as minimal, but the possibility of a collision cannot be completely ruled out yet, since the parameters of the orbit continue to be clarified.

"This means that the risks are small, but there is no question of their complete absence yet, and vigilance should not be lost," Chumakov said.

The expert added that the asteroid's movement is influenced not only by the gravitational forces of the Sun and Earth, but also by the attraction of other planets, which can gradually adjust its trajectory. He stressed that if such an object falls to the Ground, an explosion comparable in power to a tactical nuclear charge is possible.

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"The fall of an asteroid to Earth, the size of which is identical to 2024 YR4, can indeed lead to extremely serious consequences: the explosion that will occur will be significantly more powerful than the power of a tactical nuclear bomb," the expert said.

According to him, the key refinement of the trajectory is expected in 2028, when the asteroid will approach the Earth again and become available for more accurate observations. The Doctor of Sciences added that such objects are regularly recorded in near-Earth space, but most of them do not pose a real threat, although they require constant monitoring.

On June 25, Chumakov, in a conversation with Izvestia, denied the existence of such a phenomenon as a "micromoon." According to him, the terms "micromoon" and "supermoon" appeared more in popular culture and the media than in professional astronomy.