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- Part of the reckoning: almost half of the debts are owed by Russians with three loans
Part of the reckoning: almost half of the debts are owed by Russians with three loans
Almost half of all Russian debts are held by borrowers with three or more loans, Izvestia found out. Although their share is gradually decreasing, the stability of the banking system largely depends on this group. Many of these loans were issued in 2023-2024, even before the Central Bank tightened its debt restrictions, and are now overdue. The risks of bankruptcy of such borrowers are great and how the growth of bad debts affects other bank clients are described in the Izvestia article.
How well are Russians credited
Currently, about 11.3 million people are paying off three or more loans. Moreover, they account for about 47% of all Russians' loan debts, according to data from the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia.
This share has been decreasing in recent years, but at a slow pace and still remains very significant. As a result, the stability of the banking system now depends on 8% of citizens.
The average debt level for borrowers with three or more loans is about 1.6 million rubles, said Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB. This is three times higher than for clients with a single loan.
The real risks are created not by the number of loans, but by the high workload, the Bank of Russia clarified. We are talking about those who spend more than half of their income on debt servicing. Not all borrowers with three loans can be classified in this category, the Central Bank emphasized.
The regulator is working to reduce the proportion of borrowers with a high debt burden. Restrictions began to be introduced back in 2023, but at first they affected only customers who sent more than 80% of their income to payments. For those with a share exceeding 50%, the limits were earned only in the second half of the year.
At the same time, similar measures began to take effect for mortgages and car loans only in 2025. Up to this point, creditworthied Russians had more opportunities to apply for such loans.
The bulk of the debt owed by borrowers with three or more loans was formed in 2023-2024, when the restrictions of the Central Bank were just beginning to work, said Nikita Kulagin, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Sovcombank. Among such clients, there are those who received a loan before that time, but less than a quarter of them, the press service of Sberbank clarified.
Loans issued in late 2023 and early 2025 are now gradually maturing into arrears, according to the materials of the Bank of Russia. For example, the risks of mortgages issued during the overheating of the market in 2023-2024 are still being realized.
Who takes out more than three loans
Not every borrower with three loans is in debt, said Pavel Zholobov, senior director of NRA Ratings of financial institutions. However, it is among such clients that the proportion of borrowers who spend more than half of their income on debt payments is high.
Usually we are not talking about three identical cash loans, explained Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. Most often, a person simultaneously pays off a mortgage or car loan, uses a credit card, and has a consumer loan or installment plan.
For example, a family buys an apartment in a new building with a mortgage, then takes out a consumer loan for repairs, and then makes installments for furniture and household appliances, said Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency.
Many clients from this group actually have preferential mortgages at a low rate, Dmitry Gritskevich said. Such a loan could have been issued three to five years ago, and due to the increase in salaries, the monthly payment ceased to occupy a significant part of the family budget. This allows a person to take out additional loans.
In some cases, we are even talking about two large loans at the same time. The Bank of Russia pointed out that many families have been servicing two mortgages for five years or more under the program for families with children.
What risks do borrowers with three loans pose?
Now, the loans of the past years are really maturing among the most heavily indebted Russians, said Nikita Kulagin from Sovcombank. However, the associated risks are partially mitigated by the Central Bank's measures.
Banks have actually stopped issuing loans to customers with extremely high debt loads, Pavel Zholobov concluded. This has limited the influx of new risks. But the accumulated debt is decreasing slowly, since such borrowers almost never repay loans ahead of schedule, and delinquency among them occurs quite often.
The old loans will remain on banks' balance sheets for a long time, the expert added. Mortgages and car loans are issued for a long time, and credit cards often remain open even with a small debt.
If a person has a stable income and there are no delays, such a burden can remain manageable. The problems begin when a significant part of the salary is spent on payments, a credit card becomes a constant source of money, and one debt is covered at the expense of another, Vladimir Chernov noted.
However, even the most stable borrowers may face problems, Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency, reminded. Banks are not always able to predict layoffs, prolonged illness, or a decrease in a client's income.
Pavel Zholobov believes that the main trigger for the increase in arrears may be the deterioration of the labor market situation. While unemployment is at a low level and wages are rising, most Russians are coping with payments. But a reduction in employment or a reduction in premiums can dramatically impair their ability to service debts.
An increase in the number of defaults is also possible if the macroeconomic situation worsens, Vladimir Chernov noted. If inflation starts to eat up a significant portion of salaries again, and rates remain high, delinquency may increase.
In this case, banks will have to allocate more funds to reserves and take an even tougher approach to selecting new customers. This can make it difficult to obtain loans even for bona fide borrowers.
However, banks themselves are not interested in massive defaults of their clients, so they are ready to meet borrowers halfway and offer restructuring programs, VMT Consult clarified. Sberbank recalled that credit holidays and other support programs are available for clients in difficult situations.
Pavel Zholobov is confident that 8% of Russians will not have a systemic banking crisis due to the concentration of debt. The bulk of the debt is concentrated in the largest systemically important banks, which have sufficient capital reserves to cope with such risks.
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