Negotiating stress: Will the US and Iran reach a deal on time

About two weeks have passed since Iran and the United States signed a symbolic memorandum. But progress is still modest. Tehran and Washington are talking about a deal, but the multiplying problems only complicate the work of diplomats and push the parties to a new armed conflict. As a result, the 60-day period allotted for the development of a guarantee mechanism may not be enough. Especially considering Israel's tough stance.

Recent clashes have not disrupted the talks

Over the past week, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz several times, as well as attacked violating vessels (for example, the Taiwanese container ship Ever Lovely). Tehran motivated its actions by the fact that the opponents allegedly violated the fifth paragraph of the memorandum by organizing "green corridors" through the territorial waters of Oman. The United States, under the pretext of violating Tehran's obligation not to interfere with navigation, responded with strikes against military infrastructure — radar and air defense systems, and UAV depots became targets. At the same time, the parties stressed that they consider the operations as "preventive".

At first glance, the exchange of blows did not really have an impact on the interaction of the parties. On June 29, the Axios news agency, citing closed sources, reported that Washington and Tehran had agreed to stop the attacks and hold additional high-level talks on June 30. This meeting is designed to preserve the previously reached agreement, which remains the basic agenda for diplomats of both countries.

On the other hand, the current round of escalation has led to changes in negotiation strategies. In particular, the meeting was moved from Switzerland to Qatar. In addition, the agenda has narrowed. Initially, it was supposed to discuss other pressing issues, including the future of the Iranian nuclear program. However, in light of the recent clashes, they decided to return to eliminating the "ambivalent interpretations" of the provisions of the memorandum.

According to the White House press service, Qatar will host not only high-level meetings (at which the American delegation will be led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff), but also technical consultations "on sensitive issues." It is also noted that the initiator of such meetings was US President Donald Trump, who "really wants the peace process to end."

The situation in Lebanon and Gaza

The situation in Lebanon remains a serious deterrent. Iran insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of this country be fully ensured. Otherwise, the negotiations, according to Iranian officials, are "meaningless." Washington is playing a trick and is trying to turn the Lebanese conflict into a separate track, shifting responsibility for eliminating the threat from Hezbollah from Israel to Beirut, thereby turning the confrontation into an internal issue.

One of the steps towards this was the signing of the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement in the last decade of June. According to the document, Israel confirmed the absence of claims against Lebanon and declared its readiness to partially withdraw its troops. But on condition that Hezbollah's infrastructure is destroyed before leaving. At the same time, Israel retained freedom of action in the "security zone" it created in southern Lebanon, up to the right to conduct operations without the consent of Beirut.

The agreement was expected to attract criticism in Lebanon. Opponents of the deal accused the authorities of betrayal. Hezbollah did not accept its terms either: representatives of the movement called the document "humiliation" and said they would sabotage its implementation. Thus, the real effectiveness of diplomatic measures is questionable.

At the same time, turbulence around the Gaza Strip is intensifying. According to an Israeli military intelligence report, excerpts from which were distributed by regional media, Hamas has significantly increased the production of explosive devices and defensive equipment, restored the combat capability of previously disbanded battalions, and also intensified field training of special forces soldiers (including the Nuhba detachment).

According to a number of indirect signs, Israel also recorded the deconservation of the largest tunnels under the Palestinian exclave. The Israeli army says it is still pursuing a limited escalation tactic, launching rare artillery strikes on the exclave, but this is provoking public anger even more. Moreover, the victims of the latest attacks were exclusively civilians.

The resumption of fighting in Gaza can seriously increase the overall tension in the Middle East and accelerate the involvement of the United States, Iran and Israel in a new intense conflict, political analyst Advan Hisham believes. Iran and most of the groups loyal to it entered into this confrontation precisely under the pretext of protecting the interests of the Palestinian people. New Israeli attempts to disrupt the status quo in Gaza will provoke retaliatory steps and sooner or later draw Iran into a new war, he said.

There is less and less time for negotiations.

Iran and the United States have about six weeks left to agree on a scheme for peaceful coexistence. Without this, the transformation of the symbolic memorandum into a long-term mechanism for regional settlement will be questionable.

At the same time, Trump's public position remains unstable, and his rhetoric changes dramatically depending on the dynamics of the regional situation. For example, the day before, the American leader had once again openly threatened Tehran with annihilation. Given the fact that, according to the Flightradar24 monitoring system, the activity of American aviation in the Middle East has increased significantly, statements about the "military option" do not seem groundless. This raises concerns in Tehran: conservative politicians suggest that, under the guise of negotiations, the United States is preparing for a new round of confrontation. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that the previously announced technical consultations in Qatar "have not been confirmed." At the same time, the diplomat did not comment on the information about the meeting with Kushner and Witkoff.

However, despite the fears, clashes are still far away. According to political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev, the parties seek to impose their own rules of conducting "psychological confrontation" on each other, which expands their tools of political and military-diplomatic influence.

At the same time, both Tehran and Washington are still trying to keep in line with the "peace process" in order not to provoke too serious an escalation. Going beyond the controlled limits of the conflict is not in the interests of either side, and therefore Iran and the United States will cling to the "peaceful framework" to the last and avoid real fighting. However, this tactic has a serious drawback: if the parties simulate the negotiation process instead of a real search for a compromise, the accumulated problems will sooner or later gain critical mass. And this, in turn, is fraught with a new major war in the Middle East.