Romania has adopted a draft law on unification with Moldova. What does this mean?

The lower house of the Romanian parliament has adopted a bill on unification with Moldova. The document received automatic approval, as it was not put to the vote for 45 days – this procedure is enshrined in the constitution. The majority of the country's residents really want to annex the neighboring republic, while in Moldova itself such an idea does not receive support. What the attempt of Romanian politicians to launch the unification process says is in the Izvestia article.

Controversial bill

• The draft law on unification with Moldova was submitted to the Romanian Parliament by the far-right political party S.O.S. Romania, which has 15 mandates in the 330-seat Chamber of Deputies and one representative in the 134-seat Senate. The document contains only four short articles. They indicate that the parliament has decided to unite the two countries, the Romanian government should start negotiations with Chisinau on this issue and notify other countries and international structures about it. At the same time, it is emphasized that border changes should take place peacefully.

• The bill received negative opinions from the Romanian government and relevant parliamentary commissions, none of the other parties openly supported it. However, it was unexpectedly adopted by the Chamber of Deputies. This happened because the bill was not submitted for discussion and vote within 45 days after its introduction. According to the Romanian Constitution, in such a case, the bill is considered to have been adopted by the "tacit consent" procedure. It acts in order to speed up the work of parliament and not leave bills lying for years without movement.

• At the moment, the bill is very far from being adopted. It has yet to be approved by the Senate, and there is no automatic adoption procedure at this stage. The probability that senators will vote for such a document is almost zero. In 2023, the Senate has already rejected such an initiative. In the event that the two Chambers cannot agree, a conciliation commission is convened, in which the Senate has the last word. If the parliament does approve the bill in full, it still needs to be signed by the President and published.

Attitude towards unification

• The unification of Romania and Moldova is not being discussed from scratch. The heads of both states support this idea and have publicly spoken positively about it. Romanian President Nicusor Dan has recently stated that if Moldovans support this project, Bucharest will agree. He recalled that in 2018, on the centenary of the unification of Romania and Bessarabia, the parliament had already adopted a declaration of readiness to adopt a positive decision by Chisinau.

• Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who is also a Romanian citizen herself, admitted that if there had been a referendum for the unification of the two countries, she would have voted in favor. According to her, unification would allow Moldova to immediately join the European Union, which is her main foreign policy goal as president. At the same time, Sandu has so far ruled out holding such a referendum in the foreseeable future.

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Chisinau is ready to abandon statehood

• The population of the countries treats the idea of unification in different ways. It is much more popular in Romania, where 72% of respondents want Moldova to join, according to recent polls. In the neighboring country, from a third to 40% of residents have a positive attitude towards joining Romania. Many are undecided, and almost half are against it.

• Although Romania is generally positive about Moldova's accession, the initiative is still being cautiously assessed at the political top. The country is currently in a political crisis after the ruling coalition collapsed in April and the government was dismissed. Dan has twice nominated candidates for the post of Prime Minister, but both times they were rejected by Parliament. A third unsuccessful attempt will lead to early elections, which Dan himself does not want, since the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) of George Simion, Dan's rival in the last presidential election, is leading in the polls.

• In the current conditions, playing the card of unification with Moldova only escalates the internal crisis and provokes mutual reproaches between political forces that do not want to give the initiative in this matter to each other. Failure in this difficult field will deprive any party of the sympathy of voters, and therefore, for the time being, unification is excluded from the agenda. No one seriously intends to return to him until one or another force succeeds in retaining power.

Consequences of unification

• If the unification of Romania and Moldova is given the green light, it will radically change the situation in both countries. Moldova will get what its current leadership is so striving for — membership in the European Union and NATO, access to European markets and funds. Residents of the republic will find themselves in a country whose GDP per capita is about three times higher, which gives higher salaries and pensions. Moldova would gain full integration with European energy systems and would remove the barriers that remain against Romanian investors willing to invest in the economy of the former Soviet republic.

Romania, on the other hand, will receive a geopolitical gain that hardly any other European country is capable of. It will increase its territory by 13% and its population by 2.5 million people (although many Moldovans already have a Romanian passport). This will strengthen Bucharest's influence both in Eastern Europe and in the European Union as a whole. The politicians who achieve this will be able to say that they have restored the historical order that existed from 1918 to 1940. Romania will also receive an additional security buffer by moving its border further east.

• At the same time, Bucharest will have to solve many problems, which are why the unification process is standing still. Romania will have to either independently or through EU funds finance the construction of infrastructure that will meet its standards. The example of German unification shows that the annexation of poorer territories creates not only economic problems, but also political ones.

Romania will also have to resolve the issue of Transnistria, which Moldova does not actually control. This part of the country is strongly opposed to joining Romania, and Russian military units are located there, which will not come under the control of NATO. The status of Gagauzia, which has its own autonomy in Moldova, will also be problematic, while in Romania itself such a status is not provided for national minorities.

What does this mean?

The attempt by individual MPs to raise the issue of unification with Romania is a reflection of the internal political crisis in the country. This topic is widely discussed, and therefore it is actively used by various political forces, including due to the peculiarities of Romanian lawmaking. However, real unification, no matter how it is supported and no matter what advantages it gives, is too complex and risky a process to be expected in the foreseeable future.