Energy step: Russia may join a major project in Guatemala

Russian business can join the implementation of large-scale energy projects in Guatemala. As Izvestia found out, Gazprom is negotiating to participate in a tender for the development of this sector of the country's economy — in particular, the construction of thermal power plants, coastal LNG terminals and gas supplies is being discussed. However, experts warn that the strong political influence of the United States in Guatemala may hinder the implementation of these plans. In addition, problems may arise during the transportation and payment of LNG. What are the prospects for Russia's entry into energy projects in Central America? See the Izvestia article.

Russia is ready to develop Guatemala's energy sector

Central America has long been considered a zone of U.S. influence, but in a multipolar environment, Russia offers the region pragmatic partnership, technological sovereignty, and protection of critical infrastructure. Cuba and Nicaragua remain the main strongholds of the Russian Federation here. Other players — Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala — adhere to "pragmatic neutrality." All of them are economically dependent on the United States and are therefore trying to find alternatives.

Gazprom is currently conducting preliminary consultations with the Guatemalan side on participation in projects related to the entire energy complex of the country, such as electricity generation and fuel supplies, a diplomatic source told Izvestia.

— The Guatemalan government has announced a tender. Gazprom is holding preliminary consultations, bearing in mind possible participation in the tender for the development of the country's energy sector," he said.

Izvestia also sent a request to Gazprom.

In late 2025 and early 2026, the Government of Guatemala conducted the largest tender in the country's history (PEG—5) for projects that would generate 1,400 MW of electricity. The winners were 48 companies, both local and from Spain, the USA, Colombia and other countries.

However, almost the entire volume was taken by renewable energy projects, mainly solar power plants. Projects based on gas-fired electricity generation lost out because they were more expensive to implement.

But in the end, the Association of Electricity Producers, a local NGO that represents the interests of Guatemala's private energy sector, and investors told the government that without adapting regulations to the gas sector, the country would face an energy shortage. Solar plants cannot generate energy 24 hours a day. The authorities agreed that price should not be the only factor in winning the tender.

Besides, there was another problem. In parallel with PEG-5, the authorities launched an energy transfer tender (PET-3). It failed: only one application was received, which did not meet the technical requirements. This means that even the winners of PEG-5 (especially solar plants) run the risk of encountering a "discharge restriction", that is, they will not be able to supply all the generated energy to the grid due to a lack of transmission capacity.

As a result, by the end of 2026, the Guatemalan authorities have scheduled a new tender (PEG-6) to contract about 300 more MW of guaranteed capacity and simultaneously resolve the issue of electricity transmission infrastructure.

In order to launch gas-fired thermal power plants, Guatemala needs to resolve an infrastructure impasse. There are no main gas pipelines and terminals for receiving LNG in the country. Therefore, we will have to build a full-fledged infrastructure chain from the sea terminal to the thermal power plant, as well as resolve the issue of gas supply.

The participation of Russian companies in this particular tender is currently being discussed.

Gazprom's likely export to Guatemala has specifics: the company can supply medium-tonnage LNG, said Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. Since the republic is just starting to build terminals, it is not yet able to receive large tankers, which require deep-water ports and powerful regasification plants. At the initial stage, the local infrastructure will be able to service only small or medium-sized vessels, for which the medium-tonnage "approach" is designed.

The main candidate for sending fuel is the LNG Portovaya medium-tonnage complex, Yushkov added. Due to the inclusion of the US plant in the sanctions list, direct legal supplies are limited, but there is an option with transshipment of gas to ships of third countries. However, even without a direct contract with Guatemala, Gazprom will benefit, the analyst stressed.

According to him, large—scale LNG supplies to the Guatemalan market from a large number of countries will partially free up space in other markets where Gazprom currently operates, such as Japan, South Korea, and China, which is a priority for the company, the expert added.

For a legal presence on the market, Gazprom can supply high-tech equipment for the construction of thermal power plants from scratch through its subsidiaries. Another option is to enter Guatemala's ready—made facilities as a service operator: manage digital systems, carry out maintenance and modernization. Pavel Maryshev, a member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society, confirmed that when replacing coal-fired and fuel-oil thermal power plants with gas-fired ones, Russian experience, technology and expertise will be very useful for the Guatemalan side.

Risks for the Russian Federation in cooperation with Guatemala

Such a technological and raw materials partnership carries serious risks, as Guatemala remains a long-standing U.S. ally in the region. According to Yushkov, the authorities of the republic may refuse to cooperate due to the threat of secondary sanctions from Washington.

It is theoretically possible to find a sea route bypassing the ports controlled by the Americans, but logistics control is not limited only to the port infrastructure, warns Maryshev. Any transport corridors leading to Central America are located in the zone of strategic influence of the United States, and if desired, the White House can severely restrict international shipping here.

Viktor Kheifets, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, looks at the situation more positively. He believes that Guatemala will move towards economic rapprochement with Moscow in those areas that do not overlap with the key interests of the White House, for example, the construction of LNG infrastructure or occasional fuel supplies.

The "red lines" for Washington would be the republic's strategic partnership with Russia, the creation of a free trade zone, or large-scale military-technical cooperation with the construction of military bases, but such scenarios are excluded today, the expert emphasized.

Attempts at economic rapprochement between the Russian Federation and Guatemala are taking place after a protracted recession. A noticeable cooling in relations began in the spring of 2022, interrupting the peak period of cooperation. By the end of 2021, the mutual trade turnover soared by a record 129%, exceeding $222 million, thanks to major contracts in the supply of fertilizers and nickel mining.

However, the status of Washington's key ally forced Guatemala to react harshly to its actions. It became the first state in the region, whose leader (at that time Alejandro Giammattei) personally visited Ukraine in the summer of 2022 and completely froze contacts with Moscow at the highest level. Following this, the United States stepped up financial monitoring of the region, blocking key joint projects with the Russian Federation, including investments in Guatemalan nickel mines. But the republic has not joined the direct anti-Russian sanctions.

The political dialogue and trade and economic ties between the two countries are now being restored, the Izvestia diplomatic source added. Humanitarian cooperation is at the forefront. Guatemala is regularly visited by Russian creative teams, exhibitions, concerts and readings of Russian classics are held here. The principle of "culture paves the way for business" helps to bypass Washington's political barriers.

The Central American energy system is in deep crisis due to the deterioration of networks, the high cost of fuel oil and droughts that paralyze the operation of hydroelectric power plants. In addition to Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras are actively looking at LNG imports. In addition, the region is showing interest in low-power nuclear power plants (ASMM) up to 300 MW. Rosatom, the world leader in this niche, is already discussing similar projects with Nicaragua. Another viable direction will be the modernization of local obsolete hydroelectric power plants. Russian companies have extensive experience in the production of powerful turbines and generators, and the supply of industrial equipment for dams is unlikely to provoke strong protest from the United States.