Make a block: The United States is drawing the Gulf countries into close cooperation with NATO

The Americans can convince their Arab allies of the need to deepen cooperation with NATO, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. It is for this purpose that Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have been invited to the alliance's summit, which will be held on July 7-8 in Turkey. One of the central topics of the meeting will be the settlement of the Iranian issue. However, so far, no region has been better off from the presence of NATO in it, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Meanwhile, on June 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio completed a three-day visit to the Persian Gulf states. Analysts note that it was important for the United States to smooth out the corners and show the appearance of a unified position on negotiations with Iran.

Rubio's Middle East Tour

On June 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio completed a trip to the countries of the Persian Gulf — the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain. It became the first mission of this level after Washington and Tehran signed a framework agreement a week earlier and stopped the war. The parties have moved on to a 60-day stage of technical negotiations, which should result in a final document. Iran expects to gradually lift restrictions and regain access to frozen assets, and Washington, according to the White House, in exchange has reached an agreement to admit IAEA inspectors and completely curtail the uranium enrichment process.

Marco Rubio said that the Gulf states had shared with him "some serious concerns." The fact is that the memorandum focuses only on the nuclear dossier. And Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian stoked the fears of the United States' Arab allies when he said that Tehran would never compromise on its missile potential.

A separate painful point of negotiations is the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has made it clear that there will be no former status quo: representatives of Iran claim that the strait is now "controlled" by the Islamic Republic, and Tehran and Oman are already working on a fee for passage. Marco Rubio responded harshly: no country has the right to take money for using international waterways and no fees will be included in the deal. The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, of course, do not support the idea of payment.

It is also important that the countries of the region were actually excluded from drafting the agreement. They are invited to support the already prepared text and take on some of the risks. The main purpose of Rubio's visits, as noted by experts interviewed by Izvestia, is to smooth out the corners and show the appearance of a unified position. At each stop, Rubio repeated: The United States "will not do anything that would undermine the security of long-standing allies in the region."

It is characteristic that during the entire tour, the US Secretary of State did not raise the issue of the $300 billion Iran reconstruction fund, which is mentioned in the signed memorandum. And Rubio did not ask for contributions from partners to this fund, although the memorandum itself suggests that they will pay part of the bill.

According to Bloomberg, Rubio even approved the sale of air defense interceptor missiles and other weapons to Middle Eastern partners for $25.8 billion, which is three times the amount announced by the US administration last week.

With his visit to the Middle East, Rubio tried to consolidate the perception of victory, which is difficult to consider so obvious, says Prokhor Tebin, director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

"On the eve of the 250th anniversary of the United States and after the last summit of the Group of Seven, the American administration needs to politically and legally consolidate the perception of this success," he said. — It is necessary to consolidate political success, reformat relations, consult and inform partners in the region, and outline further ways of cooperation — energy, investment, and military.

NATO Summit in Turkey

The United States may continue to work with its allies at the NATO summit in Turkey, which will be held in Ankara on July 7-8. Bloomberg previously reported that the alliance had invited Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait to participate. These states are NATO partners included in the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative program. One of the central topics of the summit will be the situation around Iran.

A few weeks after the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, NATO held an emergency meeting with partners from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Then the parties agreed to step up joint work on combating UAVs, protecting critical infrastructure and counterterrorism. The commander-in-chief of the NATO joint forces in Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich, reported that the alliance would send part of the air defense systems from Europe to the Middle East.

On June 24, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with US President Donald Trump at the White House. Rutte noted that Washington's allies provided logistical support to American troops during the operation in Iran. As an example, he mentioned Bucharest Airport, which temporarily stopped accepting civilian flights to serve US military aviation. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai responded by noting that the NATO Secretary General's words actually confirmed the bloc's participation in the US operation.

"NATO is actually going beyond its responsibility, and it has not been hiding it for a long time," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. — So far, no region has been better off because of the presence of NATO in it.

Qatar has already confirmed its participation in the NATO summit. The representative of the country's Foreign Ministry, Majid al-Ansari, called Doha one of the parties to the Istanbul initiative and recalled the "ongoing partnership" with the alliance. At the same time, as noted by Omani researcher Abdullah Baaboud, the Persian Gulf countries do not intend to openly provoke Iran and retain space for mediation and balancing between major powers, and the formation of an "Arab NATO" or collective defense based on the alliance is not planned.

— If the issue of closer cooperation arises again, it means that there is such a desire at least in the alliance. The Arabs will certainly cooperate more, but, I believe, not to the extent that NATO wants," international political scientist Elena Suponina explained to Izvestia.

There are several reasons for restraint. Monarchies value the diversification of foreign relations — relations with China, Russia and other players — and will not go to programs that could complicate these relations. Internal differences in the region are also affecting: some Arab countries still have political restrictions on participation in certain alliance formats, which they are not ready to lift in order to accelerate their rapprochement with NATO.

The caution of monarchies is also explained by the fact that previous security guarantees have already failed. During the war, Iran attacked all six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council with varying intensity. According to media reports, about 2.8 thousand missiles and drones were fired in the UAE alone.