The economist assessed the consequences of possible changes to the family mortgage

Family mortgage conditions in Russia may change as early as July 1. Among the measures discussed are the introduction of a differentiated interest rate depending on the number of children in the family, a reduction in the maximum loan term from 30 to 15 years, as well as the possible abandonment of the excess limit mechanism. This was announced to Izvestia on June 29 by Julian Ovechkin, head of the mortgage department at Level Group.

One of the most significant changes may be the transition to a differentiated rate. It is assumed that families with one child will receive less favorable conditions compared to borrowers with many children. According to the expert, even a moderate rate increase can significantly affect housing affordability.

"If today, with a loan of 8 million rubles for a period of 30 years, the monthly payment at a preferential rate is about 48 thousand rubles, then at a rate of 12% it can increase by more than one and a half times — up to 83 thousand rubles per month. For many families, such a financial burden will be critical," the economist noted.

A reduction in the maximum loan term may have an additional impact on the solvency of borrowers. If the mortgage is indeed issued for a maximum of 15 years instead of the current 30, monthly payments will increase even more. According to calculations, with a loan of 8 million rubles and a term of 15 years, the monthly payment can reach 96 thousand rubles, which is actually twice the current burden under the preferential program.

"The combination of a higher rate and a shorter loan term will lead to a noticeable decrease in the availability of the program. First of all, it will affect families with one or two children, who today form a significant part of the demand in the primary housing market," Ovechkin stressed.

Fifteen-year capital: the authorities will limit the term of the preferential rate on the family mortgage

Why was it decided to reduce it to 15 years and how will this affect housing affordability?

Another measure under discussion is the abolition of excess limits on family mortgages. Currently, the program allows you to apply for loans for amounts exceeding the basic limits. Such transactions account for about 10-15% of all family mortgage loans.

Excess limits are most popular in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large cities, where the cost of housing is significantly higher than the national average. If this option is canceled, some buyers will either have to increase the initial payment or choose more affordable properties.

The expert noted that as a result of possible changes, the family mortgage program may focus more on supporting large families. For families with one or two children, the conditions for buying a home may become less attractive and affordable.

For developers and the real estate market, this means the need to find new tools to stimulate demand. Developers can make more active use of installment programs, their own subsidized rates and additional discounts. It is also possible that special offers may appear and the pricing policy may be adjusted for individual projects to maintain sales levels.

Ovechkin said that the final parameters of the reform will be of significant importance for both home buyers and the construction industry as a whole, as family mortgages remain one of the key drivers of demand in the primary real estate market.

The authorities plan to limit the duration of the preferential family mortgage rate to 15 years. This follows from the draft rules for providing banks with compensation for lost income on housing loans for families with children, which was studied by Izvestia on June 24. The authenticity of the document was confirmed by two sources in the banking market.

Nikita Bakhcheev, Managing Partner of Promplan Group, noted on the same day that the reduction in the share of preferential mortgages in the total volume of loans should be considered as an adjustment of the market by the regulator, and not as a refusal to support certain categories of citizens. According to him, it is important to separate citizens who purchase housing for their own needs and investment buyers.