Conversational plan: why is the EU imitating Moldova's European integration

Moldova will not be admitted to the European Union until at least 2030, and the last bilateral summit with the EU is just a screen for supporting Maia Sandu, the country's parliament told Izvestia. Integration is hampered by high levels of corruption and a weak economy, and the EU is well aware of this. But at the same time, Brussels is actively drawing the country into its space through investments, energy and infrastructure projects. According to experts, the purpose of all this is solely to reduce Russia's influence in the region. However, there will not be a quick and complete break between Moldova and the CIS, some of the ties remain important for the country's economy.

Problems of Moldova's European integration

On June 22, the EU–Moldova summit was held in Brussels, the first after the opening of the Fundamentals negotiation cluster. It includes key issues for future EU membership: the rule of law, the work of democratic institutions, public administration reform, fundamental rights and economic criteria. As a result, Brussels confirmed its readiness to promote Chisinau's accession as reforms are implemented.

In the meantime, the EU is trying to maximize the republic's involvement in the pan-European space in other formats. We are talking about the gradual integration of the country into the EU's internal markets, connection to investment programs, energy and infrastructure projects. The EU remains Moldova's largest trading partner: in 2025, it accounted for more than half of the country's trade turnover, which exceeded €7 billion. On January 1, 2026, Moldova joined the European Free Roaming Zone and also joined the Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA). The modernization of the Moldovan army continues through the European Peace Foundation.

In 2025, the EU announced a large-scale €1.9 billion growth plan for Moldova for 2025-2027. According to the European Commission, by June 2026, Chisinau had received €504 million of these funds, and the recent EU-Moldova investment conference allowed projects worth up to €641 million to be announced.

At the same time, the EU–Moldova summit is more political support for Maia Sandu than a real step towards the country's accession to the European Union, said Bogdan Tsyrdea, a member of parliament from the opposition Party of Socialists. Chisinau is joining the EU not separately, but in conjunction with Ukraine, and this, according to him, makes the prospects for joining even more uncertain.

— There will be no integration in 2028, 2029, or 2030. Many European officials have already said that there can be no talk of any European integration of Ukraine while fighting is going on there. And Moldova itself has stated that it is not going to dissociate itself from Ukraine and will go with it to the end," the deputy said.

And the EU needs not so much Moldova as the opportunity to separate it from the Russian Federation. As noted by Natalia Kharitonova, a researcher at the Russian State University of Economics, Brussels is motivated by the desire to minimize Russian influence in the region. According to key technical and legal criteria, Chisinau does not meet EU standards.

Why Moldova is not ready for the EU

The republic is objectively not ready to join in a number of ways, agrees Nicole Botistianu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Among the main obstacles are institutional weakness, the vulnerability of the national economy and the inability of the state apparatus to quickly adopt EU standards.

The European partners demand from the Moldovan authorities tough evidence of the independence of the judicial system from political elites and oligarchic groups. Brussels places a special emphasis on strengthening relevant anti-corruption agencies and transparency in the financing of political parties.

In practice, all these transformations stall. Relevant European structures point to delays in verifying the integrity of judges who will have to consider cases of senior officials. In the Corruption Perception Index from Transparency International (the organization is considered undesirable in the Russian Federation), Moldova scored only 42 points out of a possible 100, ranking 80th out of 182 countries.

Transnistria remains the main political obstacle to Moldova's accession to the EU. Chisinau is trying to resolve this issue through the gradual economic subordination of the region. Since 2024, companies from the left bank of the Dniester River are required to pay customs duties to the budget, although they were previously exempt from this for almost a quarter of a century. The authorities are also pushing for the abolition of tax benefits for Transnistrian enterprises, including the gradual introduction of VAT and excise taxes on the import and sale of goods.

— Attempts to resolve the issue with Transnistria are extremely clumsy, ill-conceived and rather declarative in nature. They are rejected by Tiraspol because they do not correspond to the original agreements, they also do not take into account the position of Pridnestrovie and Russian interests," Kharitonova believes.

Formally, Brussels does not consider the Transnistrian issue to be an unambiguous problem. But still, they are not eager to accept a divided state with an unresolved conflict inside. This creates legal, political and security risks: where the border of the application of European law lies, how to control customs, what to do with the external military presence and how to take into account the position of the region beyond the control of Chisinau.

The risks are added by deep internal socio-political polarization, says Artyom Purchun, an employee of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics. In particular, opposition forces are traditionally strong in Gagauzia, harshly criticizing the course of the ruling PAS party. Recently, Chisinau has launched a harsh pressure campaign against them, for example, by jailing the head of the autonomy, Yevgenia Gutsul. This clearly demonstrates that not all Moldovan society accepts the European vector, which creates pockets of resistance within the country.

How Moldova is moving away from Russia

In parallel with Moldova's European integration, ties with Russia and the CIS are being dismantled. Chisinau is consistently withdrawing from the previous formats of cooperation. Since 2023, Moldova has not actually participated in the work of the CIS, and in 2026, the authorities began officially withdrawing from the Commonwealth.

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Moldova's withdrawal from the CIS is destructive from an economic point of view. According to Moscow, there is an attempt to distance itself from Russia completely behind this decision.

— All these summits are held with the electoral goal of supporting the rating of Maia Sandu and the ruling Action and Solidarity party. The second goal is to show Moscow that this is a zone of influence of the European Union. But Brussels no longer has enough resources to keep this entire conglomerate of states on its periphery," said Bogdan Tsyrdea.

According to the MP, there is a "game of symbols and influence" going on around Moldova: the EU is trying to expand its presence on the eastern periphery, but at the same time it is facing a shortage of resources and crises within the union itself.

However, a complete and simultaneous break with the CIS should not be expected, Kharitonova believes. According to her, even after the statements about the withdrawal, Chisinau made it clear that it would remain involved in part of the agreements. First of all, we are talking about the socio-economic sphere.

— If they had managed to withdraw from all the agreements at once, of which there are more than three hundred, the economy would have died very quickly. They can't afford it," Kharitonova said.

According to the expert, Chisinau is actually copying Georgia's tactics after 2008: Tbilisi left the Commonwealth, but retained the most profitable economic preferences. Thus, Moldova is trying to solve a twofold task — to demonstrate loyalty to Brussels and a final break with Moscow, while avoiding the immediate collapse of its own industry and trade.

Bilateral contacts with the CIS countries will remain, but with the current political vector of Chisinau, there is no reason to expect normalization of relations with Russia in the foreseeable future.