German Wave: Berlin's militarization policy threatens Germany's neighbors

Berlin's militaristic course and plans to create a leading army in Europe are fraught with serious consequences for Germany's neighbors, who so far prefer to remain silent. This was stated to Izvestia by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko. According to him, Germany's current policy "strongly smacks of revanchism" and radically violates the country's peace obligations under the Moscow Treaty of 1990, according to which no threats should emanate from German soil. The strengthening of Germany's military power worries the countries bordering Germany, mainly France and Poland, experts say. However, if they used to be afraid of German military aggression, today they are afraid of the loss of the political and economic balance of power in Europe.

Militarization of Germany

Berlin's policy of creating the leading military army in Europe and abandoning previous peace commitments resembles revanchism. This was stated to Izvestia by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko.

—The aspirations that have already been officially formulated as Germany's policy (that it will be the leading military army in Europe) — all this strongly smacks of revanchism," he told Izvestia.

The diplomat noted that Germany's current militaristic policy radically redefines the very foundations on which the modern German state was built and united. The second article of the Moscow Treaty of September 12, 1990 legally fixed Germany's commitment that "only peace will come from its land."

— All this is now being radically revised. They say that "that's it, we don't owe anyone anymore, a new stage has begun, Germany has paid for everything." And this, of course, is fraught with the most serious consequences not only for European security, but also for Germany's neighbors, who are still silent," Alexander Grushko said.

Germany continues a large-scale rearmament program, which gained momentum after the proclamation of a course for a "change of epochs" (Zeitenwende). It aims to transform the Bundeswehr into the strongest conventional army in Europe by 2039. Germany's regular military budget for 2026 is a record €82.7 billion (plus an additional €25.5 billion from the special fund). It is expected that by 2029 it will grow to €153 billion, and in the long term, Berlin is ready to spend up to 5% of GDP on defense.

The transformations relate not only to the growth of purchases and staffing of the German army. For the first time since the Second World War, Germany is permanently deploying a military contingent abroad. We are talking about an armored brigade in Lithuania with a total strength of about 5,000 troops. The deployment of the force began in 2024-2025, and the unit is expected to reach full combat readiness by the end of 2027.

Concerns about the strengthening of the Bundeswehr

On the one hand, the Western elites, who aim to comprehensively support Kiev and inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation, welcome Germany's plans to increase spending on the army. On the other hand, Germany's large-scale rearmament program is already causing concern among Germany's neighbors, experts say. If they used to be afraid of German military aggression, today they are afraid of the loss of the political and economic balance of power in Europe.

— This is especially true for Poland and France. Although it would seem that France, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, may not be afraid of strengthening German military potential, economic considerations are valid here, namely— competition between military manufacturers in Germany and France. Of course, Paris will be concerned that German competitors will feel better than French ones," said Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at MGIMO.

Paris is most afraid that Berlin will convert its new military might into sole political leadership in the European Union, says Alexei Chikhachev, associate professor of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University.

— The French political class and the expert community have an underlying fear that Germany will seize the status of a military and political leader within the EU in the foreseeable future. Traditionally, French diplomacy has become accustomed to the informal division of leadership in the EU: within the Franco-German tandem, the economic weight is on Germany's side, and France is responsible for military-political and foreign policy initiatives, the analyst believes.

The expert notes that German purchases of ready-made American weapons, such as airplanes, run counter to France's concept of Europe's "strategic autonomy" and the support of European (primarily French) manufacturers.

As for Poland, its attitude towards strengthening German military power is also twofold. Of course, the country's leadership does not see the threat of a German attack. The current authorities are completely determined to expand military cooperation with the Germans. In mid-June, the Ministers of Defense of Poland and Germany, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh and Boris Pistorius, signed a new agreement on defense cooperation, including cooperation in the field of military exercises.

At the same time, the national Conservative opposition has a deep historical distrust of Germany. Former Polish Prime Minister from the Law and Justice party Mateusz Morawiecki explicitly emphasized that the transformation of Germany into a leading military force poses hidden threats to Warsaw. The strengthening of Germany's military power in the future may allow Berlin to begin deciding the fate of Eastern Europe behind Warsaw's back, as it has happened in history, Polish political analyst Mateusz Piskorski believes.

"Germany is implementing projects developed by external players, in particular the United States, namely that part of the American establishment that earns money through the militarization of certain countries," he told Izvestia.

Reaction to the rise of German power

In order to balance the influence of Germany, France is betting on the creation of new alliances and coalitions, including with Poland. For example, in 2025, the Treaty of Nancy was signed, which brought the military and strategic partnership between the countries to a new level. It strengthens cooperation in the field of the defense industry, and also involves cooperation in the development of civilian nuclear technologies and energy. Alexey Chikhachev notes that France is also betting on strengthening its military partnership with the United Kingdom.

"In recent years, Paris has clearly indicated its intention to bypass Germany through various combinations and coalitions within the European Union and with the participation of the United Kingdom,— he said.

France also uses the expansion of its "nuclear umbrella" to European countries as a political instrument of influence. Negotiations are underway, including with Poland. The official desire to become part of the French system was expressed in the countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States (in particular, in Lithuania and Estonia).

The rapid strengthening of Germany's military power poses a new challenge for Europe. German militarism provoked two world wars in the 20th century. However, the situation has changed now. Statements about the rapid rearmament of Europe, which have been voiced by politicians over the past few years, run into the harsh reality of military factories, bureaucratic procedures and national ambitions.

After World War II, the United States became responsible for the security of Europe, which affected the state of the European military-industrial complex. As the German newspaper Die Welt notes, despite record injections into defense and rhetoric about "vital necessity," the European military potential, especially in the Bundeswehr, is still far from being in a state that allows us to talk about full combat readiness for protracted conflicts.