Interest-bearing time: Small businesses are massively switching to floating-rate loans

Russian entrepreneurs are increasingly rejecting fixed-rate loans in favor of loans whose terms are linked to the decisions of the Bank of Russia. As of May 1, their share reached 65%, although at the beginning of the previous year it was at the level of 45%, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. At the same time, on June 19, the regulator lowered the key rate by only 0.25 percentage points to 14.25%, while simultaneously tightening the signal regarding further monetary policy. As a result, the business runs the risk of maintaining a high credit burden for longer than expected. Why companies rely on floating interest rates and how justified their expectations are — in the material of Izvestia.

Why does a business choose floating rates

Representatives of small and medium-sized businesses are increasingly switching to floating-rate loans. According to the Bank of Russia, as of May 1, their share in the total debt of SMEs reached 65%. For comparison, at the beginning of 2025, this figure was 45%, and a year earlier — about 36%. At the same time, the first massive floating-rate lending programs began to appear only in the early 2020s.

The vast majority of current loans to SMEs at a floating rate are completely dependent on the decisions of the Bank of Russia — 80% of loans are linked to the key rate. The lower it is, the less interest entrepreneurs pay.

However, at the meeting held on June 19, the regulator took an unexpected step for many, reducing the "key" by only 0.25 percentage points, to 14.25%. The Central Bank also noted that the expediency of further rate cuts is questionable, and the regulator may take pauses at subsequent meetings. Because of this, businesses risk being left with a high interest burden for longer than expected, experts warn.

Choosing floating rates is not so much a conscious strategy as an adaptation to reality, says Alexander Shkarupa, brand director of the Dynamics event agency. When the fixed percentage was 20-23%, and the floating percentage was a key plus 2-4%, the choice was obvious — the business took a "reduction ticket."

This rate provides the company with flexibility in debt management and reduces the cost of loans, but the business gets maximum benefits only when the key rate is continuously going down, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.

In general, loans with floating conditions have already become the standard for corporate clients, confirmed economist Andrey Barkhota. When the key payment schedule is lowered, it is recalculated — the monthly contribution is reduced or the term is shortened. At the same time, the spread (the difference between the loan rate and the key rate) remains constant, whereas with a fixed rate and refinancing, it can grow. Under constant conditions, the loan value is reviewed only in case of restructuring.

Step in place: The Central Bank will not lower its key rate below 12.5% by the end of the year

How did the Bank of Russia's signals change the rate forecast and why is the regulator not at all concerned about current inflation?

What are the risks for SMEs due to the slow decline in key

The main danger of floating—rate loans is the gap between market expectations and the real pace of the Central Bank's policy easing cycle, Alexander Shkarupa warned. The Bank of Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to take pauses at the slightest inflationary signals. If the rate reduction cycle drags on for a year longer than expected, the company will carry the maximum load for another 12 months. For a business with a profit margin of 10-15%, this threatens significant losses.

These concerns were confirmed on June 19: a decrease of 0.25 percentage points did not meet the expectations of market participants, said Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics. Taking into account the harsh rhetoric of the regulator, forecasts of the future trajectory of the key have also become less optimistic.

A decrease of only 0.25 percentage points is a signal that the period of cheap money will not come soon, Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom—Trust investment company, agreed. Now the floating rate is no longer perceived as an opportunity to save money, and for most borrowers it will be a source of high interest costs. This is especially dangerous if the safety margin of the companies was small.

When applying for a floating–rate loan, many organizations calculated a reduction in a key step of 0.75-1 percentage points, said financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. However, the regulator chose a more cautious tactic. In addition, the expected growth in purchasing power did not happen, the expert added.

Microenterprises with an annual turnover of up to 15-20 million rubles are at particular risk, whose profitability may not cover the increased payments on short loans, warned Vasily Kutyin, Director of analytics at Ingo Bank. Among the areas that are particularly sensitive to falling demand are catering, offline trade, small—scale construction and household services. In these segments, the problem is getting worse: an increase in payments is superimposed on a decrease in revenue, and the safety margin is depleted faster.

The volatility of the key rate and possible pauses in the regulator's decisions will continue to carry increased risks for SMEs, said Anastasia Rusakova, Director General of the NOVAK Association and a member of the Public Council of the Ministry of Finance.

What to expect from betting next

Despite the deterioration of expectations, the trend towards lower interest rates has not changed. In the future, they will still decrease, Boris Kopeikin emphasized. This means that floating-rate loans will remain in demand, although they will become less attractive at the moment.

When choosing a loan, businesses should evaluate the transparency of cash flow, access to government support, and planning horizon, Vasily Kutyin noted. If a company has stable forecasts and can respond quickly to changes, a floating rate will still be more profitable. The planning horizon is no less important: for short—term projects, such loan terms may be more reasonable, and for long-term projects, a fixed interest rate is often preferable due to the uncertainty of the future interest rate, the expert concluded.

The floating rate is best suited for trading and services where the financial cycle is short and prices are indexed faster, said Alexey Kurasov, Head of Finama's Corporate Finance department. The fixed rate will be more relevant for industries, agriculture, logistics with thin margins and long investment horizons (3-7 years), Alexander Shkarupa added. Concessional loans from the Ministry of Industry and Trade are best suited for startups, Natalia Milchakova concluded.

In the future, if the key rate remains at a relatively high level, but the market expects it to decrease further, the share of floating-rate loans may exceed 90%. Such a scenario looks quite natural for the current market conditions, said Pavel Samiev, a member of the Presidium of Opora Russia and chairman of the Financial Markets Committee.

The trend towards using floating rates will continue, Natalia Milchakova agreed. According to her forecast, the share of such loans could reach 70% by the end of the year. Moreover, the trend will continue, even if the Central Bank does not change the key one for several months in a row, says Angelina Krasheninnikova, head of the credit department at Tochka Bank. While the business is still waiting for the "key" to decrease further, the demand for such products will remain high.

Pavel Samiev holds a different opinion. According to him, if the decline in the key rate slows down, the business will be forced to return to fixed products. Alexey Kurasov expects a move towards a normal 50-50 distribution between fixed and variable rates by the end of the year.

Floating interest on a loan is not a guarantee of savings for a business, but a tool that requires constant monitoring and preparedness for the unexpected, experts agreed. The key reduction cycle may drag on, and then companies that have relied on a rapid easing of the Central Bank's policy may find themselves trapped in expensive money. Experts advise entrepreneurs to weigh all options before signing a contract and lay a financial cushion in case of increased payments.