European embarrassment: EU failed to discuss dialogue with Moscow
Serious disputes have broken out behind the closed doors of the Brussels EU summit: European leaders are trying to decide whether it is time to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia. At a two-day meeting on June 18-19, most countries unexpectedly voted in favor, and the French embassy confirmed to Izvestia that Europe was seriously preparing for dialogue. However, there is no consensus — some participants still consider the moment inappropriate. But experts say that this is not a split at all: European capitals are no longer arguing about whether to communicate with Moscow, the whole intrigue lies in the details — when and in what format.
The EU is arguing about negotiations with Moscow
In the EU, disagreements have emerged again on the issue of negotiations with Russia. At the summit on June 18-19 in Brussels, most of the countries of the association called for the start of a dialogue with Moscow, according to media reports. The seriousness of the intentions of the European community to join the settlement was confirmed to Izvestia by the French Embassy.
— The war in Ukraine directly affects the security interests of Europe. In this sense, the participation of European countries in the process of a lasting and just settlement of the conflict is inevitable," the embassy told Izvestia.
Moscow, for its part, does not use this wording — Russia is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine.
However, in Paris, according to leaked information, they considered the moment for such contacts unsuitable. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Estonia stand in solidarity with France in this. The reason for the latest disagreements among Europeans allegedly became reports of attempts by the office of the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, to establish a diplomatic channel of communication with the Kremlin. The media reported that Costa's chief of staff, Pedro Laurti, twice spoke on the phone with a senior official close to Vladimir Putin. Costa emphasized that substantive issues were not discussed: it was only about keeping an open channel for communication.
Opponents of the initiative considered such a step "erroneous." They are confident that dialogue right now will ease the pressure on Russia. In Moscow, this may be seen as weakness — as if Europe is ready to negotiate, ignoring the real situation at the front. The Baltic states, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe are sounding the alarm: any official contacts with the Kremlin, in their opinion, risk splitting the EU and undermining general support for Ukraine.
No matter what contacts Costa's office builds with Moscow, the European Union, as an institution, cannot independently conduct full-fledged negotiations on military and political issues, said Timofey Bordachev, professor at the Higher School of Economics and program director of the Valdai Club. This role should be assigned only to EU member states.
According to Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, the consensus among European countries is still to inflict a "strategic defeat" on the Russian Federation.
"The only difference between them is when to try to impose their conditions on Russia: some believe that the right moment has already developed for this, others believe that pressure needs to be continued," he explained.
And there was no longer any disagreement on the main topic of the summit, Ukraine. Vladimir Zelensky personally came to Brussels, with whom the EU leaders discussed further support and the negotiation process on Kiev's accession to the European Union. According to media reports, EU members also agreed to extend economic sanctions against Russia for 12 months at once, having previously extended them for only six months.
What is the current situation with the negotiation process on Ukraine
While Europe is arguing, the United States is getting down to business. On June 14, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a 55-minute telephone conversation. The formal reason was the 80th anniversary of the American president, but the key topic, as expected, was the Ukrainian settlement. Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed: Trump has explicitly stated his willingness to work with Kiev and European allies.
US President's special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are indeed planning to come to Russia in the near future, but the date of the visit is unknown. So far, American negotiators are closely involved in the Iranian settlement and should start work on the main agreement with Tehran. After that, they will be able to switch to Ukraine.
At the same time, the American side has been making ambiguous signals all this time. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to Congress in early June, said that the United States was not a neutral participant in the process, as it supported Kiev, supplied it with weapons and maintained sanctions against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the words of his American counterpart were surprising. However, the head of Russian diplomacy admitted that the American approach to the settlement could be adjusted again, as it happened after Anchorage. "Now everyone is talking about the spirit, that the spirit has worn off. Spirit, it has nothing to do with understanding. The understandings were clear," Lavrov said.
Formally, the main channel of communication with Moscow now remains with the United States. But it is difficult to completely exclude Europe from the settlement: it is the EU that finances a significant part of Kiev's support and participates in the discussion of future security guarantees. In addition, the financial burden of assistance to Ukraine increasingly falls on the Europeans, including the purchase of weapons and the development of their own defense production.
The Russian Foreign Minister spoke eloquently about the role of Europe in his article "Ukraine, Europe and Global Security." The minister said that European countries want to negotiate with Russia based on their own demands, rather than seeking a compromise. According to him, Europe's real goal is not peace, but an attempt to "freeze out" the conflict, preserve Kiev as an anti—Russian foothold and gain time to build up military capabilities.
Can negotiations start in 2026
Moreover, Europe still cannot decide who will represent it in possible negotiations — there is not even an agreed list of candidates. There are a variety of names in the media: from current politicians like Antonio Costa, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and head of EU diplomacy Kai Kallas to retired heavyweights Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, Sauli Niinisto and Jean-Claude Juncker.
The E3 format — France, Germany and the United Kingdom - was discussed separately. But it also raises questions: London has long distanced itself from the European Union after Brexit, and the format itself does not represent all the countries of the union. Vladimir Putin called former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder a possible mediator, but this option was actually rejected in the EU due to the proximity of the politician to Russia.
Most likely, full—fledged EU-Russia negotiations should not be expected in the foreseeable future. Instead, several lines will develop parallel to each other. The first is American: through Witkoff and Kushner. The second is European, through Costa's office or a separate representative, if the EU countries do agree on his mandate. The third is the direct contacts of major European powers with Moscow. It is important to emphasize that Moscow has never rejected any options.
Anyway, a full-fledged negotiation process to end the conflict in 2026 is impossible, Dmitry Solonnikov believes. There must be a specific scenario for this. The first is when one of the sides wins, and the other agrees to discuss the conditions for ending the war from the position of the losing side. The second is when both sides have exhausted resources and are ready to fix the status quo. To date, neither the first nor the second conflict has developed in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
