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- More valuable than uranium: what will lead to the closure of the US access to the best AI model
More valuable than uranium: what will lead to the closure of the US access to the best AI model
The US administration has decided to close access to the flagship model of artificial intelligence Mythos from the company Anthropic for foreign users. The company itself showed obvious displeasure about this decision, but was forced to comply. This step means Washington's final rejection of the concept of a single global Internet. The White House's decision will provoke a large-scale migration of businesses to American jurisdiction, as well as trigger the formation of a shadow market for computing power. These and other consequences of the fateful ban are described in the Izvestia article.
The essence of the restrictions and the position of the parties
The peculiarity of the new model, the Anthropic, is that it has almost crossed the threshold of autonomy. Mythos is classified as a full-fledged AI agent. The architecture of the model allows it not only to respond to requests, but also to independently write complex software code, test it, deploy it on servers, and manage multi-level financial or logistical models without intermediate human control. On internal benchmarks in software engineering tasks (SWE-bench), the model demonstrated a successful problem solving rate of over 92%, reducing the level of critical errors to values of less than 1%. In pharmaceuticals and materials science, the algorithm can simulate molecular structures for weeks without human intervention. Access to such a tool gives the company a multiple advantage in productivity, allowing you to automate the work of entire departments of analytics, programming and customer support.
The order of the American regulators imposes a strict ban on providing access to the Mythos model (and the related Fable ecosystem) to any individuals and legal entities that are not residents of the United States. The US administration motivated this step with national security considerations. According to officials, the computing and analytical capabilities of the new generation of AI have reached a level where algorithms can be used to create complex malicious software code, develop biological weapons, and conduct cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. Advanced neural networks are officially equated to strategic weapons, the export of which poses a direct threat to the state.
The company Anthropic reacted to the decision of the authorities by publishing an official explanation on its website. The startup's management confirmed its full agreement with the requirements of the regulator, emphasizing its commitment to the principles of safe AI scaling. The press release states that the company is temporarily suspending the registration of new foreign accounts to access the Mythos family and is implementing additional verification protocols for users from the United States. At the same time, representatives of Anthropic avoided the issue of financial losses, emphasizing the importance of responsible algorithm development.
An interesting detail: corporate clients outside the United States who received early access to Mythos during beta testing are still using the model. This fact demonstrates the complexity of the technical implementation of the ban — instant disconnection of API keys (software interfaces) threatens to bring down the work processes of partners. Regulators have given the business an unspoken transition period, but its end dates remain open.
The introduction of such a digital embargo triggers a number of processes in the global economy, the results of which may not appeal to everyone.
Code "Uranus"
Washington has changed the very object of sanctions pressure. Previously, export controls focused on physical equipment, such as ASML lithographic machines or Nvidia computing accelerators. Now the border runs through cloud services. The software code and access to server capacities have almost equaled the value of enriched uranium. The global technology sector has lost the main advantage of the last decade: the ability to rent the most powerful intellectual infrastructure on the planet for a subscription fee, from anywhere in the world.
Business is always looking for ways to maximize efficiency. If a European pharmaceutical company or an Asian fintech startup critically needs the Mythos model for data analysis or product development, they will not abandon it due to regulatory barriers, and the adaptation process will begin.
At the same time, the ban may act as a funnel that draws capital and personnel to the United States. Foreign companies will be forced to register legal entities in the United States, move their headquarters there, rent servers, and hire local management to formally meet the requirements. Washington, whether it wants to or not, has launched a mechanism to force the re-registration of global innovative businesses in its jurisdiction.
The shadow API market is waiting
A ship with sanctioned microchips can be stopped at a port, but it is much more difficult to trace the routing of a cloud request. The administration's decision will inevitably spawn a global digital smuggling industry.
Thousands of intermediary firms registered with American residents will appear on the market. Their only business model will be the legal purchase of access to Mythos and the subsequent resale of computing power to foreign customers through a complex system of secure servers. The company will have to spend huge budgets on compliance and internal investigations, trying to weed out real American users from hidden foreign tenants.
Europe in the red, China in the black
For Europe, this ban falls on an extremely unfavorable macroeconomic background. The EU industry is grappling with the energy shortage caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, an accelerating technological gap is being added to expensive energy resources.
American corporations using Mythos will gain a significant advantage in the speed of product development and cost optimization. European businesses will be deprived of these tools. Local AI developers (for example, the French Mistral) will receive an influx of customers who have nowhere else to go. However, the objective gap in quality between European models and American flagships will leave EU businesses in a catch-up position, reducing overall labor productivity on the continent.
By trying to isolate its technology, the United States is creating ideal conditions for the Chinese AI industry. Countries in the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia still need to integrate neural networks into their economies. Facing the closed American door, the Global South will turn to Beijing.
Chinese corporations (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) will have a huge ready market for their sovereign AI models. The ban on using Mythos removes for them the problem of competition with an American product outside the United States. Washington will provide Chinese developers with a stable export income with its own hands, which will be used to further improve their algorithms. Previous attempts to slow down the development of artificial intelligence in China have not been successful, and this one is unlikely to be successful.
Financial reservation
However, the most serious consequence of the ban may be the collapse of the financial models of the American bigtech itself. The cost of accelerator clusters, electricity, and data scientists is estimated at $5-7 billion per generation of the neural network. The business plans of technology corporations were based on the assumption that the product would be sold worldwide, scaling to an audience of billions of users.
Artificially limiting the sales market to the borders of the United States (and, possibly, a narrow list of trusted allies) spoils the prospects for payback. If Anthropic and its investors lose access to the money of European and Asian corporations, it will become almost impossible to return the billions invested in data centers. Against the background of recent statements by large investors about the impending deflation of the artificial intelligence bubble, the export ban may become the very factor that will force the markets to severely overestimate the capitalization of the entire sector. Technological protection will result in a severe financial crisis for the industry.
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