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- Freeze from the East: trips to Asia have dragged down inflation in the Russian Federation
Freeze from the East: trips to Asia have dragged down inflation in the Russian Federation
Russians' trips to Asian countries have unexpectedly become one of the factors slowing down inflation, Izvestia found out. At the beginning of the year, Rosstat included holidays in the UAE for the first time in the calculation of price increases as popular expenses for citizens. However, against the background of the worsening situation in the Middle East, demand for Emirates has decreased, and in statistics they have been replaced by more popular destinations — China and Southeast Asian countries. However, logistical difficulties have also affected these routes. Despite the growing tourist flow, the cost of trips to Asian countries immediately decreased by 19% in April, and the trend continued in May. As a result, cheaper holidays abroad made a significant contribution to curbing price increases and helped keep inflation at almost zero in the spring. About what tourists can expect in the summer season and how much foreign trips can affect official inflation statistics is in the Izvestia article.
Where do Russians go on vacation in 2026
In 2026, Rosstat updated the list of goods and services used to calculate inflation. For the first time, it includes vacation trips to the UAE and the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation. The last time a foreign tourist destination was included in the consumer basket was in 2022, when the statistics took into account flights to Turkey. However, after a few months, the situation changed. After the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, air traffic with the UAE was disrupted: carriers canceled and restricted flights, and the full restoration of flights began only in the summer.
Due to transport restrictions, the demand for the destination has noticeably decreased. According to Rosstat, in the first quarter, the number of trips by Russians to the Emirates decreased by 20% compared to last year and amounted to 488 thousand, despite the high season.
As a result, since April, the State Statistics Service has excluded holidays in the UAE from the calculation of inflation. Instead, the weekly monitoring included trips to Southeast Asian countries (including 11 countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia), and the monthly monitoring included China.
As Rosstat explained at the time, adjustments to the list during the year are allowed only in exceptional cases. Such a solution is possible if there is a chance that demand will remain low for more than two months in a row.
Inflation is calculated based on the most common household expenses — those that account for at least 0.1% of spending. The monthly index consists of 558 items, and the weekly index consists of 110 items. The basket includes food, gasoline, utilities, medicines and other most in-demand goods and services.
Russians' interest in Asian destinations has grown significantly this year. According to Rosstat, in the first quarter, the number of trips to Vietnam increased 11 times and reached 237 thousand. 604 thousand Russians visited China, which is 60% more than a year earlier. At the same time, the tourist flow to Thailand decreased by 3% to 514 thousand trips.
Despite the high demand, the cost of holidays in Asia has been declining. According to statistics, in April, prices for trips to both China and Southeast Asia fell by 19%. In May, this continued, albeit at a slower pace: travel to China fell by another 5%, and to Southeast Asian countries by 1%.
Price reduction for Asian destinations by CMACP experts in their monitoring of inflation (Izvestia has reviewed it) It is associated with the logistics crisis through aviation hubs in the Persian Gulf.
The cheapening of foreign holidays has become one of the factors slowing down price growth in the country. According to Rosstat, inflation in April was 0.14% compared to March, and in May it was 0.17% compared to the previous month. According to weekly statistics, the service has already recorded deflation twice: in May, prices decreased by 0.07% and 0.02%.
In addition to cheaper travel services, the slowdown in inflation was influenced by a seasonal decline in food prices, primarily vegetables and fruits.
Izvestia appealed to Rosstat, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Transport.
Why trips to Asia are needed to calculate inflation
The decision to exclude the UAE from the calculation of inflation looks logical against the background of a sharp drop in oil prices, experts say. According to Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global, tours to the Emirates fell in price by 25-45% in the second quarter compared to the first, and only in June the decrease was 20-30% compared to May. The seasonal factor also exerted additional pressure: in summer, demand for trips to Dubai traditionally decreases due to the heat.
Replacing the Emirates with China and Southeast Asian countries should make inflation statistics more stable, says Ahmed Yusupov, an economist and partner at the Goldman and Po communications agency. According to him, new destinations are less dependent on the situation in the Middle East, they are actively developing direct flights to Russia, and their prices are usually less susceptible to sudden fluctuations.
"This will reduce the influence of random factors on weekly inflation rates and make statistics more representative," the expert noted.
At the same time, the demand for Asian destinations will continue to grow. According to Ahmed Yusupov, some of the tourists who refused to travel to the UAE have already shifted to China, Vietnam and Thailand. However, it will not be possible to completely get rid of cost fluctuations: in summer, the cost of holidays traditionally increases due to the high season, so new positions can also significantly affect the dynamics of the consumer price index.
However, official inflation and the price increases felt by people are often different. As Akhmed Yusupov explained, the consumer price index is calculated based on an average basket of goods and services, while households face their own spending structure. The perception of inflation is most strongly influenced by food, housing and communal services, medicine, education and catering — these are the expenses that citizens notice most often.
The inclusion of foreign tourism in the calculation of inflation is justified only if we are talking about a truly mass service, Natalia Milchakova believes. According to her, holidays in Turkey, Thailand or Vietnam have long been a familiar expense item for millions of Russians. The situation with China is less clear, but its popularity is growing rapidly due to the visa-free regime and the expansion of transport links.
— We can expect that trips to China and Southeast Asian countries will increasingly be perceived as a mass service. In this case, inflation will more accurately reflect the real expenses of Russians," the expert emphasized.
At the same time, even new tourist destinations are not devoid of seasonality. As Natalia Milchakova recalled, the index already includes volatile categories such as fruit and vegetable products, air tickets, rail transportation and gasoline. Therefore, to assess sustainable price growth, economists are more likely to focus on seasonally adjusted inflation, which excludes the influence of such temporary factors.
Thus, the situation with the UAE has shown that even geopolitical events thousands of kilometers away from Russia can affect official inflation in our country. As the popularity of China and Southeast Asian countries grows, these areas will be increasingly reflected in price statistics.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
