Transition to warming: adaptation of economy to climate change discussed in Russia

The second annual national report on the climate agenda in Russia was presented as part of the events of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). It notes that in world practice, it is not the prevention of climate change that comes to the fore, but the adaptation of economies to the changes that have already begun. About how climate change affects the Russian economy and what ways can be chosen for its adaptation to climate change — in the material "Izvestia.

What is the report about

A new report on the climate agenda in Russia has been prepared by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs together with the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the National Alliance for Sustainable Development and the Melnichenko Foundation. The authors analyzed the current climate agenda and presented proposals for its development for 2026.

Thus, the study notes that rising temperatures lead to an increase in the number of natural hazards, creating risks for infrastructure, transport, energy and agriculture.

— In 2024, 1,234 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena were registered in Russia, which is the highest value in more than 15 years. Of these, 493 caused significant damage to the sectors of the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The greatest damage was caused by heavy precipitation, gusty winds, frosts and forest fires, — follows from the text of the work.

According to the authors, economic losses from climate change can amount to trillions of rubles. According to calculations, if the average annual temperature changes by one degree Celsius, the potential reduction in Russia's annual GDP could reach 3.1 trillion rubles in 2022 prices. Therefore, the authors raise the question of finding an approach that will take into account climate risks without prejudice to economic development.

The situation in Russia

The countries that have signed the Paris Climate Agreement prepare a target document every five years, the so—called ONUV, a nationally determined contribution to achieving the goals of the agreement. The second one in Russia was released in 2025, when all participating countries had to declare their goals to the UN secretariat, and was the result of a discussion between executive authorities, business, experts and scientists.

An analysis of the updated national contributions of the Paris Agreement member countries shows that economic adaptation to climate change is becoming one of the key areas of national climate policy. 73% of new ONVS already have a special component dedicated to adaptation and increasing resilience to climate change. Moreover, the authors note that modern national climate strategies are no longer limited to the tasks of reducing emissions and increasingly include issues of adaptation, financing, technology transfer, capacity building and compensation for climate damage.

For Russian companies, the climate agenda is becoming part of a new economic reality. On the one hand, businesses are facing new demands from foreign markets, the need to take into account the carbon footprint of products and adapt to changing regulations.

On the other hand, new opportunities are emerging. The importance of climate projects, carbon unit markets, energy-efficient solutions, and natural resource management technologies is growing.

Polina Pozdnyakova, an ecologist and lecturer at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics and ITMO, told Izvestia that adaptation measures, if taken by departments and businesses, can not only prevent GDP losses, but also create additional opportunities, for example, prolong navigation, strengthen agriculture, and help develop the Northern Sea Route.

— For companies, this means that they need to build climate strategies right now, monitor the situation and prepare for data verification. This means that we need to start integrating the areas recommended by the report into corporate ESG strategies, use green financing tools, and participate in pilot projects. This will help minimize risks and maintain the competitiveness of Russian products in foreign markets," she explained.

Russia has the largest natural ecosystems capable of absorbing significant amounts of carbon. Therefore, the country's climate policy, according to the authors, should take into account not only the objectives of reducing emissions, but also the benefits associated with natural carbon sinks — forests, swamps and other ecosystems.

— What do we see in the optimal scenario? The reduction of net emissions is achieved through the full use of the potential of natural ecosystems. It is expected that the revision of methods for forest soils will result in an increase in absorption by 290 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030, and by another 150 million tons by 2035 due to arable soils and forage land soils. Plus, the potential of climate projects in ecosystems is estimated at 475 million tons of annual takeovers. In total, these figures are comparable to the emissions of large industries. But in order to achieve them, it is necessary, firstly, to systematically develop climate science, and secondly, to create attractive conditions for the implementation of climate projects, including through ensuring the possibility of transmitting their results internationally," concluded Sergey, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Ecology and Climate Policy of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in a conversation with Izvestia. Tverdokhleb.

The Sakhalin Experiment

The report pays special attention to the experiment on achieving carbon neutrality on Sakhalin, which started in 2022. Its completion is scheduled for 2028, but the interim results have already been summed up.

The aim of the experiment was to achieve carbon neutrality in the region by the end of 2025. To do this, we improved the system for accounting for greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the region, tested a mechanism for quoting greenhouse gas emissions, formed an independent reporting verification system and new mechanisms in the national register of carbon units, which we worked out as part of an experiment. In August 2025, the leadership of the Sakhalin Region announced the early achievement of the key goal of carbon neutrality in the region. At the same time, the recalculation of the regional cadastre made a key contribution to achieving carbon neutrality, the share of which is estimated at 60%.: In other words, the results obtained were related not only to limiting emissions, but also to a revision of the assessment of the ability of ecosystems in the region to absorb carbon.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia, including Roman Sablin, a leading consultant on business greening in Russia and the CIS, and founder of the Green Driver company, attach great importance to this experiment.

— An important practical result that follows from the report is the achievement of carbon neutrality by the Sakhalin Region in August 2025. As the analysis shows, the main role was played not by quotas, but by clarifying absorption estimates in the regional cadastre. This once again confirms the high importance of accurate scientific accounting of natural runoff and ecosystems for the whole country," he said.

Sablin also noted the dual impact of these trends on business. He stressed that, on the one hand, the regulatory burden is increasing, and on the other, new opportunities are opening up for the implementation of climate projects and the attraction of "green" financing.

Future trends

The authors of the report also suggested ways to develop Russia's climate agenda, taking into account the challenges it poses to the economy and the opportunities it creates.

—Adaptation to climate change should become a priority area of state climate policy in order to minimize negative impacts and take advantage of opportunities associated with climate change," the document says.

In world practice, increasing attention is being paid to increasing the resilience of the economy to the effects of climate change, developing national adaptation plans and reducing climate risks.

The authors attach particular importance to improving the accounting and confirmation of the absorption capacity of Russian ecosystems. According to their assessment, the implementation of relevant climate projects can become one of the most cost-effective areas of climate policy.

It is also proposed to pay attention to those solutions that simultaneously provide an environmental effect and contribute to economic development. For example, these include reducing fugitive emissions in the fuel and energy sector, improving the efficiency of resource use in buildings and the manufacturing sector, working with natural carbon sinks, developing a voluntary carbon market, and completing its retrofitting to participate in CORSIA (a system for compensating and reducing carbon emissions for international aviation, Ed.). Finally, the role of energy efficiency and resource conservation as the most economically viable instruments of climate policy will increase.

The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs also emphasizes that the Russian regulatory framework on climate policy needs to be further improved.

"In 2025 and early 2026, a large set of regulatory legal acts was adopted aimed at improving the Russian voluntary carbon market and its accreditation in the CORSIA system, which provides for trading in carbon units to compensate for greenhouse gas emissions from international air transportation. The key role in this great work belonged to the Ministry of Economic Development, which prepared an exhaustive package of documents taking into account international requirements. We hope that participation in the CORSIA system will become one of the key drivers for the implementation of climate projects in Russia," says Sergey Tverdokhleb.