Coal and ruble: how a freight tariff model can support the economy

On June 16, a round table was held in Moscow, where experts and industry representatives discussed ways to develop the tariff policy of the railway freight transportation industry. Now it is at a crossroads: the government and companies are looking for the most profitable and fair pricing model that would not only cover the carrier's costs, but also stimulate Russian industry and exports. What problems of tariff regulation were discussed by experts and what solutions were proposed, — in the Izvestia article.

The problem is on the table

The discussion was opened by Danil Tokmin, partner of NEFT Research, who recalled the problems faced by the industry and carriers. Thus, shippers are talking about a multiple increase in the tariff burden in recent years, Russian Railways — about the negative profitability of coal transportation in the round-trip.

Since 2026, a new tariff policy has been introduced, the industry has moved from the price list 10-01 to tariff guide No. 1, but so far the changes for business are more technical in nature. The previous price list was introduced in 2003. Over the years, it has become outdated not only in form, but also in its technical basis, and therefore significant work has been carried out to issue a new document.

An important change was the introduction of a new tariff indexation formula starting in 2026: instead of the previously existing "inflation minus" scheme (that is, the inflation rate was the starting point, which could not exceed the indexation level), the formula of the cumulative composite index, the so-called "expenses plus", began to be used. Its essence is that the percentage is calculated based on the sum of the actual expenses of Russian Railways and the margin of the carrier.

The concern of industrialists is not unfounded: according to a study by NEFT Research, in 2022-2026, the accumulated increase in Russian Railways tariffs for freight transportation amounted to 82.8%, which is twice as high as the accumulated inflation over this period — about 40%.

Another problem, according to representatives of the coal, oil, metallurgical and other industries, was a decrease in the predictability of tariff formation, which does not allow building long-term business planning. In addition to annual indexing, additional allowances, time coefficients, and point solutions are playing an increasingly important role.

Shippers consider the third problem to be the fact that, with the help of the current pricing model, the railway industry shifts infrastructure risks onto shippers, including them in tariffs. But ultimately, this leads to the fact that senders reduce the volume of goods transported, which directly affects both their own revenue and the revenue of Russian Railways. Ultimately, falling profits could bring down exports and government budget revenues.

All these problems lead to an increased burden on shippers and operators and actually lead to a redistribution of resources from market sectors of the economy to the infrastructure sector, without taking into account the dynamics of the cargo base. The fact is that it is through tariff revenue that Russian Railways can finance large-scale infrastructure development projects.

At the same time, shippers are forced to either reduce cargo, switch to road transportation, or work at a loss, as is the case, according to the study, in the coal industry in some areas of export supplies, such as the Far East. Russian Railways abolished reducing coefficients for coal exports, which led to an increase in the tariff burden on long-range export routes to 60% and, according to the authors, directly affected the transition to a loss-making zone for them.

Thus, according to Vladimir Korotin, CEO of Russian Coal, at the round table, at the time of loading the cargo onto the ship, the FOB (FOB, free on board) price is essentially the final selling price of the cargo before shipment to the buyer; it includes the costs of its extraction, delivery to the port of departure, and processing of export documents. and loading onto the ship; further responsibility for the cargo is borne by the buyer) is formed under the influence of several parameters: cost, transportation, operators and the cost of the port.

— The economy in the East is as follows: 61% is the Russian Railways tariff, less than 1-2% is the cost of operators, about 15% is ports. That is, the key point is, of course, the Russian Railways tariffs," he explained the influence of various factors on the formation of coal prices.

Reasons for the tariff increase

In addition to providing freight and passenger transportation, Russian Railways faces many challenges, one of them is infrastructure development. As part of the strategy until 2030, the monopoly, for example, should increase the capacity of the Eastern Landfill to 210 million tons (in 2024 the target was 180 million tons), develop export corridors, and implement a plan to modernize the backbone infrastructure.

At the same time, Russian Railways is in competition with other modes of transport. Thus, Vladimir Vargunin, Director and head of the Department of Long—term tariff policy and Strategic development, noted that Russian Railways is a payer of excise tax in the amount of 31 billion rubles per year, and all this amount, according to him, will continue to subsidize the construction of highways, a competitor to rail transportation.

In these conditions of large-scale tasks and increasing competition, the monopoly is constantly looking for investments. Unlike highways, rail transportation is not directly subsidized from the budget. On the other side of the scale is the risk of cargo loss, which Russian Railways also sees, and therefore the company, like industrialists, is looking for a balanced tariff model.

A representative of Russian Railways said that consultations are currently underway with relevant ministries on fine-tuning tariff policy. Russian Railways sees the possibility of partial deregulation of tariff setting, especially in those segments where the company is not a monopolist, such as container transportation, covered rolling stock transportation, and partial transportation of up to 1,500 km. In these segments, it allows for the introduction of freer, more flexible tariff formation, which should be formed on a market basis.

— The implementation can be different, starting from the expansion of the tariff corridor. And then the effectiveness of these tariff solutions is checked and this solution is released to the market. But any tariff model should ensure the most efficient use of infrastructure capacities with a full load of wagons. And this tariff should not exceed the sensitivity threshold for the shipper, this is also important for us, because we would not like the cargo to leave the railway," said Vargunin.

In addition, he noted the accumulated imbalances in the tariff system, which are associated with empty and freight rolling stock.

— We will probably have to return to this issue by partially reducing (tariffs. — Ed.) on a loaded flight and an increase in fares on an empty one," the company representative explained.

The problem is broader

During the discussion, the experts raised the problem of finding a tariff model to a new level. They noted that the ultimate beneficiary of both the railway and industrial sectors is the state, which is interested in both infrastructure development, export revenue growth, and an increase in the tax base. And a drop in exporters' incomes and a decrease in the number of shipments due to rising logistics costs lead to the opposite results.

— Should the big Russian economy be a co-customer in Russian Railways? — Sergey Ermolaev, General Director of Neftetranservice, raised a key issue when talking about state support.

Pavel Ivankin, President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure, also called for the need to involve the government in the work on tariffs.

— We need a clear position of the state: The Russian railway is a commodity distribution system or a commercial entity that must ensure economic performance, including profit," he said.

Ivankin explained that it is necessary to ensure a reduction in costs for the monopoly, which will allow for a smoother increase in tariffs. He also noted that Russian Railways has functions not only for the maintenance of infrastructure, but also for its expansion.

— Even the government itself, the deputy prime ministers, say that within the framework of the third stage of infrastructure development, the budget that has been allocated there today will not be sufficient. And the difference will have to be shifted to the tariff for cargo owners," he recalled, adding that therefore changes in the current tariff must be coordinated with the government.

Sergey Rumyantsev, Director General of the Institute of Economics and Transport Development, noted the great opportunities for deregulation in the event of the withdrawal of the infrastructure component from the costs of Russian Railways, which invests in development from loans borrowed at a high bank interest. The company compensates for these costs through tariffs.

— Everything else creates an imbalance and uncompetitiveness of rail transportation over road transportation. For the country, this is partly an unloaded cargo, this is ecology, this is safety, this is the destruction of highways, taking into account the fact that the axial load has a different proportionality than the direct one from the transported ton," Rumyantsev said.

Vladimir Savchuk, Deputy Director General of the Institute of Natural Monopoly Problems, in turn, noted that in the United States, which is considered an example of a liberalized tariff policy, the share of the federal budget in co-financing investment projects can range from 60 to 80%. At the same time, Russian Railways spent about 15% of its tariff revenue in 2025 on repayment of investment loans alone. In addition, he recalled the cross-subsidization with passenger transportation, which also comes from the tariff revenue of Russian Railways.

The expert noted that without increasing the regulatory role, discussion of details, such as targeted adjustments to tariff policy, would not yield results.

"The issue of the new tariff system should begin with a discussion of new regulatory conditions," he stressed.

At the same time, experts noted that removing the need for Russian Railways to invest in infrastructure development would significantly reduce the tariff burden on export-oriented shippers. This, in turn, will reduce their costs, allow them to make profits, increase exports and, consequently, export revenue. Additional revenues will allow the state to support Russian Railways and strengthen the economy.

At the fork in the road

— We are all looking for a point of balance, but it seems that without some kind of regulatory reform or while maintaining the current rules of the game, it does not exist. That is, it is partly a mathematical exercise, but today it is somewhere normative, somewhere regulatory. And the most interesting thing is how to change the regulations so that this balance becomes achievable," Danil Tomkin noted during the discussion.

The authors of the NEFT Research study proposed three scenarios for the further development of the railway system. The first involves deepening market mechanisms: the development of competition between carriers, the expansion of private traction, and freer tariff formation modeled on the North American model. Theoretically, this approach can increase efficiency and make the system more customer-oriented, but its application in Russian conditions raises questions. Unlike in the United States, the railway network in Russia performs not only commercial, but also infrastructural and social functions, serving a vast territory and many destinations that are not always highly profitable.

At the other extreme, there is a scenario of increased centralization, in which the state uses the tariff system and administrative mechanisms even more actively to manage transportation and finance infrastructure. An intermediate way is also proposed — a model of risk distribution between the state, the carrier and the cargo base. In such a system, the unified infrastructure and the key role of Russian Railways are preserved, but part of the cost of developing highways is borne by the state, and the tariff ceases to be the only source of financing for large infrastructure projects.

At the round table, experts noted that in Russian conditions, it would be ideal to combine some aspects of the second and third scenarios — risk allocation and centralization, but stressed that none of the proposed options could be fully implemented. Thus, Vargunin noted that the model of full centralization had already been discussed earlier, but had not found support, since it would require state regulation of the entire chain, starting from the cost of raw materials. At the same time, he recognized the distribution of risks with the possible introduction of market pricing over a period of several years as acceptable.