Counter-promotion: Turkey wants to resume mediation between Russia and Ukraine
Turkey is ready to provide a platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This was stated on June 16 by the country's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Previously, one of the key initiatives of Ankara's mediation was the grain deal with the assistance of the United Nations. However, Moscow is no longer counting on agreements with the participation of the United Nations, Deputy Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. The Ukrainian settlement also got on the agenda of the G7 summit, where Vladimir Zelensky met with Donald Trump. After the announced deal with Iran, the US president promised to focus on the Ukrainian crisis. However, this does not mean rapid progress, experts warn.
Will there be a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
The Ukrainian settlement, after a long standstill, seems to be getting a new impetus. On June 16, the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers held talks. Sergey Lavrov and Hakan Fidan discussed bilateral trade, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, coordination of actions in the South Caucasus, and ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea. In the context of the last question, Fidan stated Ankara's readiness to provide a platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during talks at the Reception House of the Russian Foreign Ministry
Turkey has repeatedly contributed to the settlement process. One of the key outcomes of such mediation is the Black Sea Initiative or the so—called grain deal, which was concluded in July 2022 through the mediation of the United Nations. However, then only Ukraine got what it wanted by selling the harvest and receiving money for it. Obligations to Russia under the deal were simply ignored.: Rosselkhoznadzor was not connected to the SWIFT system, and foreign accounts were not unblocked. As a result, Russia refused to extend the deal in July 2023.
And now the Russian side is not counting on UN mediation on the Ukrainian negotiating track, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
"I don't see any reason yet for us to enter into negotiations of this nature,— he said. — Mediation by the United Nations? I don't see the potential of the UN for this. The way the secretariat and the Secretary General behave completely deprives them of such a role, such powers, such authority," the Deputy Foreign Minister noted.
Turkey has occupied a unique niche as one of the main diplomatic bridges between Moscow and Kiev. Starting from the meetings at the very beginning of the special operation, thanks to which the peace agreement was practically initialed, and ending with a series of rounds in the summer of 2025.
And now Erdogan still does not want to stay on the sidelines, said political analyst Daniil Kochetov. According to him, there is a very specific economic benefit for Turkey in this. The country geographically controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, which makes it a kind of "arbiter" in the Black Sea. As the organizer of the processes and the coordination center, in 2022 the republic received, for example, a 25% discount on Ukrainian grain.
The country also earns money from logistics, freight and insurance of ships. In 2022-2023, fees for their passage through the Straits increased to $185-200 million per year. Thus, the country expects to maintain and increase its dividends, whether it is control over the grain corridor or even future contracts for the reconstruction of Ukraine after its war.
The republic also receives political benefits, primarily by increasing its international prestige, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia.
At the same time, Turkey is not a neutral party at all. First of all, it is a member of NATO, which supplies Kiev, in particular, with Bayraktar attack drones. In addition, in 2022, Ankara, as an intermediary, was unable to ensure the full implementation of agreements on militants from the Azov group (recognized as a terrorist organization in the Russian Federation) — after the exchange, many of them returned to battle. This has seriously undermined Turkey's credibility as a reliable guarantor. But for Russia, such an intermediary is more profitable than direct negotiations through openly hostile Western countries, concluded Kochetkov.
The likelihood of new negotiations with the assistance of the United States
However, it should be understood that no matter which mediator there is, decisions on behalf of the Ukrainian side are made in a completely different place — in Washington. In a recent conversation with Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump promised to facilitate the negotiation process during the G7 summit, namely, to influence representatives of the EU and Ukraine.
Vladimir Zelensky personally appeared at the summit. There he met with Trump, who, as the deal with Iran was concluded, publicly promised to focus on the Ukrainian settlement. Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted that the Kremlin expects that traditional U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be able to come to Moscow after the signing of the memorandum between Washington and Tehran.
Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump
But the near prospect of an Iran deal also turns into a disadvantage for the Russian Federation. The United States may strengthen sanctions against Russian oil. The restrictions were relaxed precisely during the acute phase of the war with Iran. But now Middle Eastern oil will be supplied to the world market again, and Trump can change his rhetoric at any moment in his usual manner, Bezpalko stressed.
However, relations between Kiev and Washington are also not going smoothly. At the February session of the UN General Assembly, representatives of Ukraine and its allies literally quarreled with their colleagues from the United States over disagreements about the resolution. The Americans made changes to the final document, which turned out to be unacceptable to Kiev. In particular, they concerned the exclusion of the wording on commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Alexander Alimov drew attention to the fact that such a situation in general is not something out of the ordinary.
— I wouldn't call it a quarrel, it's maybe too loud to say. It was just, let's say, a diplomatic standoff related to the amendments being made by the United States to the text of this resolution. A quarrel is not a category that should be used in relation to the diplomatic process at the UN. But the differences in positions were obvious then," the diplomat stressed.
The differences between the parties are rooted in the difference between the American "business approach" to quickly freeze the conflict and the Ukrainian demand for security guarantees. Washington insists on a settlement based on the realities on earth. Ukraine, at least now and publicly, is against fixing the border along the front line. In addition, the Trump administration considers Kiev's refusal to join NATO as the main compromise for the sake of an agreement with Moscow. Zelensky, on the other hand, insists on full membership in the alliance or reinforced concrete guarantees from the West with the presence of foreign contingents. Alimov stressed that Ukraine, seeking to fulfill its demands at the UN, is trying to put pressure on everyone through its permanent representative to the organization, however, according to him, this is unsuccessful.
Bezpalko added that he doubts an early meeting of the delegations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, since negotiations require a specific agenda, as well as acceptable conditions, which are not publicly indicated and agreed upon later in the negotiations. However, none of this has been observed so far. However, visits to Russia by Witkoff, and then by Kushner, each time set in motion the heavy gears of the Ukrainian settlement.
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