Debt game: the number of mortgage transactions in Russia has increased by a third
Russians have become more active in taking out mortgages, despite the harsh lending conditions. Since the beginning of the year, the number of transactions has increased by 32%: such data was presented at the real estate forum "Movement". In the secondary market, the indicator increased by 54%, in the segment of new buildings — by 16%. Experts attribute this dynamic to changes in the terms of government programs, pent-up demand, and borrowers' adaptation to high interest rates. By the end of the year, housing loans may fall in price to 14-15.5% per annum in new buildings and up to 16-17% in the secondary market. The information about what supports demand and how the situation will develop further can be found in the Izvestia article.
How has the mortgage market changed?
Interest in mortgages in Russia continues to recover: the number of transactions has increased by 32% since the beginning of the year compared to the same period in 2025. Such data was provided by experts of the M2 real estate ecosystem at a press conference within the framework of the Movement forum.
"Despite the relatively high rates, the demand for private housing remains stable," said Yulia Rykunova, Co—founder and Business Development Director at M2. — We see that buyers are adapting to the new market conditions, choosing more flexible financial strategies and continuing to implement plans to improve their living conditions.
The structure of real estate transactions has changed significantly over the past year. In the secondary market, the share of purchases with a mortgage increased to 23%. At the same time, the number of mortgage transactions in this segment increased by 54%. The growth in the new—build market is more restrained, from 12% to 13%, and there are more loans by 16%.
According to the Central Bank, the volume of mortgage loans increased 1.6 times in January–April compared to the previous year. At the same time, demand expanded both through preferential and market-based programs. The most noticeable growth was recorded in the southern regions of the country, where a significant part of the demand is generated by investors.
Most people purchase housing on a family mortgage, the regulator emphasizes. Although its share in the total volume decreased in January – April 2026 from 73% to 56%. The Central Bank also added that some of the demand has shifted from the primary to the secondary housing market, "as the latter is significantly cheaper on average."
Sergey Babin, Head of the Mortgage Lending Department at VTB, noted that changes in government programs, pent—up demand, and the adaptation of buyers to the market rate were among the reasons for the growth of the mortgage market.
— A recent survey showed that about 40% of clients are ready to apply for a mortgage on current terms, — he noted. — There are several explanations for this: accumulated housing issues, a reduction in the key interest rate, and a narrowing of the price gap between secondary and under construction housing.
The primary segment continues to be strengthened by family mortgages and other government support measures, experts noted. The shares of preferential and market-based programs in new loans have almost equalized, indicating a gradual recovery in demand for classic mortgage products.
"Preferential programs do not depend on the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the dynamics of market interest rates," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. — The need for new housing remains high among Russians, so those who have the opportunity to take out a mortgage loan under one of the preferential programs do so.
Why did people actively take out mortgages
According to Yulia Bocharnikova, executive director of the federal company "Floors", the growth of mortgage transactions in the new building market is associated with the "last wagon effect".
"People are waiting for tougher conditions on family mortgages, including the introduction of differentiated rates and possible time limits for subsidizing soft loans," she said. — Therefore, many of those who are now eligible for a family mortgage are trying to use it.
The situation in the secondary market is healthier — as monetary policy eases, demand for market programs is growing due to attractive prices for ready-made housing.
The first and main factor in the growth in the number of mortgage transactions is the effect of a low base, said Valery Tumin, Director of the Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties.
"2025 was the worst year for mortgages in eight years: the first quarter showed less than 200 thousand withdrawals, banks actually curtailed market programs at a key rate of 21%," the expert said. — But if you look at the absolute figures, the market is still significantly below the levels of 2022-2023. This is not a renaissance, this is normalization after a crisis failure.
The second driver is the reduction of the key interest rate from the peak level of 21% to 14.5% by April 2026, and this trend continues. Over the past five months, the mortgage market has exceeded 350 billion rubles, which is four times more than in the same period in 2025.
— The third factor is the excessive demand in January, triggered by the change in the conditions for the family mortgage from February 1, — said Valery Tumin. — At the beginning of the year, Russians issued housing loans worth a record 430 billion rubles. Inflation of expectations also plays a role: people see that property prices are not falling, and they prefer to fix the purchase now, hoping for refinancing after the rate cut.
Banks, in turn, actively offer subsidized programs together with developers, reducing the effective rate for some buyers, Valery Tumin added.
What are the risks?
Analysts' forecasts for the end of the year are noticeably different.: Expert RA expects mortgage growth of 15-20% and loans exceeding 5 trillion rubles, VTB predicts an increase of 25% to 5.3 trillion, and Sberbank — 30-35%. The share of market mortgages in total loans may reach 40% by the end of the year.
— A year ago, it seemed impossible, — said Valery Tumin. — The base scenario of the Central Bank assumes a reduction in the key rate to 12-13% by the end of the year, some analysts call the range 13-15%. In this scenario, market rates on loans for new buildings will be about 15%, and for secondary housing — about 17%. This is still far from the "psychological threshold" of 10-12%, at which mortgages will become widespread.
However, there is a nuance, the expert stressed. Reducing the key to the required level is a forecast, not a guarantee. Any external shock — escalation of geopolitical tensions, acceleration of inflation will slow down the cycle.
At the same time, if the conditions of the family mortgage are significantly tightened from July 1, demand may decrease by 15-40%, said Leonid Savkov, First Vice President of Marketing and Sales at Granel Group.
"The proposed scheme is not differentiation, but a differentiated rate increase," he said. — There are more than 50% of families with one child in Moscow, and conditions for them are noticeably deteriorating. They will have to learn to live in a new reality where preferential mortgages will no longer be available to most borrowers. In June, there may be a surge in transactions above the norm — people will try to jump into the last car.
However, many people take out mortgages in the hope of refinancing expensive loans by the end of this year or the beginning of next year at a lower rate, Yulia Bocharnikova added. Izvestia wrote at the end of 2025 that the demand for mortgage refinancing has sharply increased in Russia.
Valery Tumin recalled that there is a strict time limit in refinancing: you can use such a program only after at least six months of payments on the current mortgage.
—This means that a borrower who takes out a loan today will not be able to physically refinance it before December," he said. — The second reason is the conflict of interests of the bank. It is important to understand that most credit institutions do not refinance their own products.
There are also regulatory restrictions on the debt burden (PD). It shows how much of the borrower's income is used to pay off their debts. When refinancing, the bank is obliged to recalculate it again. If the client's income has not increased over the past year, he may not meet the Central Bank's standards.
Another difficulty is the collateral requirements. When a new contract is signed, the property is re-evaluated. If the market value of an apartment has decreased — which is possible with a cooling market — the loan/collateral ratio may go beyond acceptable limits, and the bank will refuse or require additional collateral.
Therefore, before signing the agreement, it is necessary to study the terms of early repayment and the existence of a moratorium on refinancing — a number of credit institutions explicitly prescribe it for the first 12 months, Valery Tumin emphasized. According to him, a borrower entering into a mortgage today should be prepared for the fact that it will take one and a half to two years to wait for comfortable refinancing conditions.
According to Natalia Milchakova's forecast, by the end of 2026, the key rate is expected to decrease to a level of 12-12.5% per annum, respectively, interest rates on market mortgages may decrease to about 14-15.5% per annum in the primary market and up to 16-17% in the secondary market.
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