Negotiations on Moldova and Ukraine's accession to the EU have begun. What you need to know

Intergovernmental consultations on the EU accession procedure for Ukraine and Moldova have begun in Luxembourg. The prospect of membership by 2030, which the EU offered to Chisinau and Kiev, is becoming increasingly vague, and the participating countries are putting forward "hybrid" formats that may leave candidates waiting for a status change for many more years. What are the prospects for Ukraine and Moldova to join the EU and what could hinder these plans — in the Izvestia article.

Degree of readiness

• The process of the country's accession to the EU requires bringing legislation in line with the legal system of the Union. It is divided into 33 negotiation stages, which are grouped into six blocks: "Fundamentals", "Internal Market", "Competitiveness and inclusive Growth", "Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity", "Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion", "External Relations". The EU is now opening the first cluster of the main block of negotiations for Moldova and Ukraine, where, judging by the roadmap formed by Brussels with Chisinau and Kiev, issues of the rule of law will be discussed.

• The implementation of reforms for the successful completion of each stage is encouraged by financial tranches from the EU. Moldova has already received the second tranche of the reform and growth mechanism: €189 million was allocated to Chisinau in March 2026 for the successful implementation of 24 reforms. A year earlier, the country received €289 million to compensate the population for paying bills and investing in infrastructure. Moldova expects to join the EU in 2030.

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• Ukraine has implemented only 15% of the anti-corruption reform plan adopted in 2025, signed by European Commissioner Marta Kos and Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Taras Kachka (Kachka-Kos plan). Some analysts suggest that Kiev does not intend to carry out the reforms that the EU insists on, and wants to include Ukraine in the bloc in its current form, when the president retains control over the government, the court and the security forces. Nevertheless, the EU is meeting Kiev halfway and providing it with financial support, despite the failure of reforms: according to the former European official, if Ukraine becomes disillusioned with the EU, "it will be a disaster for European security."

Obstacles to entry

An obvious obstacle to Ukraine's accession to the EU is the ongoing conflict with Russia. There is also an obstacle to Moldova's accession to the EU: the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is located on the territory of the country. Only Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognize Transnistria's independence, while Russia considers the region to be part of Moldova.

• There has already been a precedent in the European Union for the admission of a state with disputed territory: in 2004, Cyprus became an EU member, despite the fact that half of the island is occupied by the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. But it was an exceptional step taken under pressure from Greece, which threatened to block the accession of nine Central and Eastern European countries to the union. In addition, Turkey, the only state that recognized the Republic of Northern Cyprus, was a candidate for EU membership and a member of NATO. But the expectation that membership in the European Union would lead to the reunification of Cyprus was not justified.

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The example of Cyprus joining the European Union is also considered as a possible inclusion of Ukraine in the bloc. But the admission of a belligerent state into the union means that the EU will become an active party to the conflict and will be forced to participate in it not only with financing and arms supplies, but also with its own military contingent, and the territory of the participating countries will become a legitimate target for strikes. At the same time, the EU countries advocate Ukraine's admission to the bloc after the conflict ends.

Risks for EU countries

• The accelerated accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the EU, which is being promoted by the European Commission, will require the consent of all participating countries. But even the engines of the European economy are facing difficulties in the context of the economic crisis provoked by the sanctions pressure on Russia, increased support for Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. Realizing that the union's budget may not be able to handle the additional burden associated with the integration of new countries, the union's members may delay the process of EU enlargement.

• The opponents of accelerated membership are Germany and France. They propose to grant the candidates (Moldova and the Balkan countries) partial access to the EU internal market, participation in European programs, security cooperation and participation in informal meetings of the EU Council as an observer without the right to vote. Chisinau expressed hope that the proposed format would not slow down Moldova's progress towards the European Union.

• Germany has proposed an "associate membership" format for Ukraine: the possibility of participating in all EU meetings, but without the right to vote. Kiev can also nominate its representative to the EU Court, but without real powers. Ukraine sharply criticized such a proposal, fearing that by doing so the bloc would be able to keep it forever "on the doorstep" without giving real guarantees.: The status will not be legally fixed, and in the event of a change in EU policy, Ukraine will be left with nothing. In addition, there is a risk that it will not be able to "go" to the EU in conjunction with Moldova, but will end up in the company of less successful Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and North Macedonia, whose promotion to the European Union has already been almost frozen. At the same time, the EU will ensure its access to the Ukrainian defense sector.

• The idea of accelerated membership for Ukraine and Moldova may meet resistance from other countries of the union, for which the path to the EU from application to full participation took a decade or more. Poland, which is the EU's agricultural leader and the main recipient of the bloc's financial support, may delay the advancement of Ukraine and Moldova due to the risk of competition in the agricultural sector and reduced financing.

• Moldova's membership in the EU poses risks for Italy, where, due to linguistic similarities, most Moldovans came to work. With the opening of the common market, Rome will not be able to save on Moldovan migrants, who will have the right to demand equal social guarantees. The regions of Southern Italy will also be hit, which will be forced to share European subsidies with Moldova and the wine industry.