Infection of civilizations: Ebola outbreak will spread to Europe and the UAE within 30 days

Ebola virus carriers from Africa are highly likely to end up in the largest air hubs in Europe and Asia within 30 days, mathematical modeling by Japanese scientists has shown. The risks of infection in Belgium, France, the UAE and Turkey reach 90%. According to other calculations, more than half of infected passengers on international flights from Congo and Uganda, where the outbreak of fever continues, are not detected at control points, as they have not yet shown symptoms. Experts note that such models make it possible to identify the most vulnerable areas for the spread of infection. At the same time, the probability of importing the pathogen to Russia is estimated as low. In addition, close contact is required for infection, which significantly reduces the risk of large-scale outbreaks.

The spread of Ebola

Calculations by Japanese scientists have shown that air passengers infected with the Ebola virus from Africa are highly likely to end up in the world's largest transport hubs such as Belgium, France, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey within a month. The study is based on an analysis of the flight routes that pathogen carriers from DR Congo and Uganda can potentially use.

Scientists estimated the probability that at least one infected passenger would arrive in a particular country within 30 days. According to calculations, in the most unfavorable scenario, the probability of an infected passenger is 92% for Belgium, 91% for France, 88% for the UAE and 86% for Turkey.

"These preliminary forecasts provide the basis for operational monitoring of the international situation, although the risk of importation does not mean the risk of local transmission of infection," the scientists wrote in their work.

The model included 11,264 airports, 569,741 air routes, and about 330 million passengers. Although the calculations were performed retrospectively — before June 9 — they, according to the authors, can also be considered as a forecast for the near future, since the main parameters have not fundamentally changed.

"It is generally assumed that if there are no fundamental changes in the model, then the calculations are valid for the future period," Alexander Sokolov, the developers of the coronavirus spread model and a leading researcher at the A.A. Harkevich Institute for Information Transmission of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.

Photo: REUTERS/Gradel Muyisa Mumbere

The number of people infected with Ebola in Africa continues to grow. As of June 15, 72 new cases had been identified in the Congo, bringing the total number of confirmed infections to 782. 181 patients died. According to WHO representatives, the risk of fever spreading across Europe remains low.

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Get on a flight before symptoms appear

At the same time, other scientific works also indicate the potential role of air travel as a factor in the spread of the epidemic. For example, German researchers based on statistics from previous Ebola outbreaks have found that due to the long incubation period of the disease - on average about eight days before symptoms appear — up to 65% of infected people may not be detected when passing through control at international airports in Uganda and DR Congo.

"Most of them board before symptoms appear and are not detected by any screening. And those who have symptoms quickly progress to such a serious illness that they are unable to travel," the researchers noted.

Photo: Global Look Press/Wen Xinnian/XinHua

According to Andrey Pozdnyakov, an infectious diseases specialist at Invitro, the calculations obtained in the research look realistic. The import of the infection through transport flows from African countries to Europe, as well as to other major international hubs, including Dubai, with such a long incubation period is a likely scenario, he noted.

"And without these calculations, it is obvious that a person in the incubation period can fly anywhere quite safely, and any screening system will not stop him, since he has no symptoms," he said.

According to the expert, the infection can be imported to Russia, including through large transit hubs, including Dubai, as well as Kazakhstan, primarily Alma Ata and Astana. In this regard, passengers arriving from countries at risk should be under medical supervision.

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The assessment that up to 65% of infected people can pass airport screening unnoticed does not mean a massive spread of infection, says Albert Rizvanov, head of the Center for Excellence "Personalized Medicine" at Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University. According to him, the key factor here is the long incubation period, during which a person remains without symptoms and is not detected by temperature control.

Photo: REUTERS/Maryam Majd

Therefore, the correct conclusion from such studies is not panic, but the need for preparedness: to inform doctors, check the routes of patients with fever, have laboratory diagnostics and rapid isolation protocols.

Passenger traffic calculations should be treated not as a forecast for the next 30 days, but rather as an early risk ranking tool. Such models for air traffic really show well which international hubs are statistically more likely to deliver, but they predict the exact date, a specific passenger and further transfer worse, the specialist emphasized.

— In the preprint, Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya and the UAE are named among the more likely "gates" within 30 days. However, the authors themselves emphasize that the risk of importation is not equal to the risk of local transmission," said Albert Rizvanov.

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According to him, a realistic scenario for the spread of Ebola outside Africa is isolated imported cases through major transport hubs, rather than a steady spread across Europe or Russia. The disease is transmitted through direct contact with the patient's blood, secretions, bodily fluids, or infected surfaces; the incubation period is 2-21 days, and a person is considered contagious after the onset of symptoms.

Photo: Global Look Press/E]Martin Zabala/Xinhua

"Therefore, even the arrival of an infected passenger in the UAE does not in itself mean an automatic risk for our country: it appears if there is a specific epidemiological link "DRC/Uganda is a transit hub of the Russian Federation" and the subsequent development of symptoms after arrival. For Russia, I would assess the risk of importation as low, but not zero; it requires pinpoint vigilance," the scientist emphasized.

Rospotrebnadzor believes that there are no risks of importing the infection to Russia. Earlier, the Gamaleya Center told Izvestia that they had already created a vaccine against the current Ebola strain Bundibugio. The drug is based on a vaccine from the Zaire strain. Now the Ministry of Health must decide whether to test it as a new tool for a long time or as an upgrade of the old one, which is an order of magnitude faster.