Fire preparation: what is known about the causes of the fire in the Kiev Pechersk Lavra

On the night of June 15, the Assumption Cathedral of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra caught fire in Kiev. In Ukraine, they rushed to announce that the temple was hit by Russian drones. In turn, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the cause of the fire was a Patriot anti-aircraft missile, which lost control due to expired shelf life. The targets of the Russian strikes were exclusively the factories of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, which work for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Experts interviewed by Izvestia note that the Russian army has never struck churches and monasteries, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have repeatedly targeted Orthodox shrines — not only churches, but also, for example, the Svyatogorsk Lavra in the DPR were subjected to barbaric attacks. Strikes on the military infrastructure in Kiev are a military necessity. They are helping the Russian army to turn the situation around at the front, where our troops are successfully fighting for Konstantinovka.

What was the "fireball" over Kiev?

On the night of June 15, the Russian Armed forces launched a massive strike with precision weapons and drones against military-industrial complex facilities in Kiev, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk. The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were carried out exclusively on military and industrial facilities. The ministry separately stressed that, according to reports, the complex of buildings of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra was damaged by a missile of the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. One of the reasons for the incorrect operation of the air defense system could be that Western countries handed over expired missiles to the Kiev regime, the Russian Defense Ministry added.

Over the past two months, the head of the Kiev regime has been actively requesting air defense systems and missiles for Patriot complexes in the United States and Western countries, military expert Alexei Leonkov recalled in an interview with Izvestia.

"Zelensky literally begged to be given any anti—aircraft missiles he wanted, even expired ones," the expert noted. — Finally, he stated that such ammunition had been received. With a high degree of probability, the air defense systems from this particular batch worked abnormally. This is not surprising — Ukraine receives ammunition on a residual basis. And the recently launched missiles are received by the American army, because the United States takes care of its own interests first. Then supplies go to Israel and the Persian Gulf countries. And only then does something fall to Ukraine.

According to Leonkov, a significant part of such ammunition has been in storage for a long time and requires additional inspection and maintenance.

There are still missiles in American warehouses that were produced not only in the early 2010s, but also in the 2000s and even in the 1990s, military expert Dmitry Kornev added. It is precisely such ammunition that is highly likely to be transferred to Ukraine, he believes. At the same time, Kiev received the first Patriot missiles back in 2023. At the same time, according to Kornev, information appeared that some of them were approaching the "shelf life limits."

Experts cite other possible reasons for the rocket's abnormal operation. One of them is the use of launchers that have been in storage for a long time.

— In case of improper maintenance, this can lead to an emergency start, — Alexey Leonkov explained.

The expert called the deployment of air defense positions in dense urban areas another possible reason for the incident.

"During the operation of the complex, the guidance system may lose its target due to the peculiarities of the urban environment," he noted.

In addition, the human factor cannot be excluded, experts are sure.

— Previously, foreign specialists worked at Patriot complexes, but now the calculations are increasingly being completed by European and Ukrainian military personnel. And their level of training may vary," the expert added.

Later, the SBU showed some debris, stating that these were drone parts allegedly found in the lavra. However, military experts interviewed by Izvestia do not rule out that they could simply have been planted at the scene of the fire — the Ukrainian side is famous for such provocations.

Moreover, on the videos from the lavra that appeared on the web, you can see the fires at several points, but the buildings themselves are visually intact. A drone explosion would have caused much more destruction, Dmitry Kornev noted.

"Here we are dealing either with the fall of a downed cruise missile or a UAV, whose warhead did not work, but fuel spilled and burst into flames, or with the fall of a Ukrainian anti—aircraft missile that missed its target," the expert believes.

This version is also confirmed by the footage of a fireball that has spread on social networks, which presumably falls on residential areas. Kiev propagandists, of course, have already said that this is one of the downed Russian missiles.

"Most likely, this is the ammunition of the Patriot complex after the self—destruct device is triggered — the footage clearly shows how the rocket fuel burns out," explained military expert Dmitry Kornev.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the strike on Kiev, enterprises involved in the work of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine were hit. Among them are the Radar, Burevestnik, Kiev Aggregate Plant, Aircraft Repair Plant No. 410 of Civil Aviation and a number of other facilities.

According to the Russian ministry, these enterprises produced components, including for Flamingo missiles.

One of the targets was also the Novaya Pochta terminal, which, according to the Ministry of Defense, was used to store and transport dual-use products, including components for drones.

"Illustrates the policy of the Kiev regime"

Alexey Leonkov is sure that our armed forces will not hit an ancient Orthodox shrine such as the Kiev Pechersk Lavra.

"But what happened is well illustrated by the policy of the Kiev regime, where the Orthodox Church has been persecuted for years and history is being rewritten," the expert noted.

In the summer of 2022, the Svyatogorsk Lavra in the DPR was damaged by shelling, where monks and civilians were killed. In the spring of 2023, the Ukrainian authorities began the process of evicting monks from the Kiev Pechersk Lavra, and then similar measures affected the Pochaev Lavra in the Ternopil region.

Attacks on churches by the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been recorded more than once. Thus, in the Kursk region, the main cathedral of the Gornal St. Nicholas Monastery (founded in 1672) was completely destroyed by the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The wooden Church of the Nativity of Christ in the village of Bolshoe Soldatskoye, a unique architectural monument of the 19th century, also burned to the ground.

In the Belgorod region, the Smolensk and Transfiguration Cathedrals were damaged due to regular shelling. In the Shebekinsky district, shells actually destroyed the St. Nicholas Church in Novaya Tavolzhanka from the inside.

On June 10, a Ukrainian drone attacked the roof of the famous Defense of Sevastopol Panorama Museum. The fire was quickly extinguished, but the Russian Historical Society called the strike a deliberate attack on human civilization.

And again, the double standards of the West

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has expressed its willingness to help assess the damage caused to the Kiev Pechersk Lavra. The corresponding statement was published by the organization's press service on June 15. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, called the statements of the West and Kiev about the "attack of the Russian armed forces" on the lavra "a concocted fabrication."

Meanwhile, Europe continues to habitually demonstrate double standards. So, French President Emmanuel Macron has already blamed Moscow for the strike, ignoring the statements of the Ministry of Defense that the strike was caused by the American Patriot air defense system, which Russia simply does not have in service.

Such behavior by the curators of the Kiev regime is far from an isolated case. In May, after a targeted attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a college in Starobilsk, when 21 people were killed and 63 others were injured, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council was held. On it, Denmark completely rejected the Russian position, cynically assuming that the footage of the tragedy was staged. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, noted that even the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had confirmed the strike on Starobilsk.

In the presence of irrefutable evidence (aerial photography data, rocket fragments) The West may recognize the attack on the facility as the work of the Ukrainian air defense, but responsibility will eventually be shifted to the Russian Federation anyway, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club. In his opinion, the mainstream American media will also join this thesis, despite the moderation of the position of the US administration.

Who doesn't want the conflict to end

On June 14, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had a telephone conversation. The American leader stressed that he was ready to influence the Europeans and Kiev during the G7 summit in order to bring the conflict to an end. Putin and Trump confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes are hindering the peace process. The leaders also discussed the upcoming visit to Moscow of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and son—in-law of the US President Jared Kushner, the traditional American negotiators on Ukraine.

However, Kiev is not ready for negotiations and does not intend to compromise, said Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. The expert stressed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly hitting Russian cities. Moreover, Kiev does not even want to be the initiator of the negotiations. Ukraine has already received part of the loan of €90 billion, and therefore is ready to participate in the conflict further. But for Trump, according to the expert, the main thing now is to conclude a deal with Iran.

Kortunov added: "it is very important how events will develop further directly along the line of combat contact." Russia is actively advancing in the area of Konstantinovka, we are talking about the dissection of the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. This may motivate the Ukrainian side to take a more flexible position and consider the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of Donbass.

The enemy is hurriedly removing defense plants from its zone.

The Russian army continues its offensive in the SVO zone. The fiercest fighting is currently taking place in the area of Konstantinovka in the DPR, where assault units have advanced and liberated more than 100 buildings in a day. The enemy suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment. So, in the area of responsibility of the South group, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 140 soldiers per day, armored vehicles, vehicles and artillery pieces were destroyed. In addition, Russian troops have completely liberated the village of Artyom.

These successes on the front line triggered a chain reaction behind enemy lines. The rapid advance of our troops caused the Kiev regime to panic, comparable to the domino effect. Realizing that it would not be possible to hold the front, the Ukrainian authorities began an emergency evacuation of key enterprises from Druzhkovka and Slavyansk, which they still controlled.

Kiev is hastily exporting not just factories to the west of Ukraine, but the basis of its military-industrial potential in the region. In Druzhkovka, a machine-building plant (where they patched up the broken armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), a hardware plant (which supplied fasteners) and Remschetmash (a manufacturer of complex electrical equipment) are preparing for evacuation.

In Slavyansk, the scale of the flight is even more serious. Planned for export there are: the machine-building plant and the Zeus-Keramika plant (both were used as repair bases for Ukrainian equipment), as well as industry giants Slavtyazhmash (heavy machinery), Betonmash (construction machinery), the State Research Institute of High Voltage, which was adapted as a workshop for assembling drones.

The enemy's strategy is obvious: they will try to defend these lines, using urban buildings as a shield, military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia.

"However, they no longer believe in the long—term prospects of their stay there," he is sure. - Kiev is trying to save the remnants of the industrial base in order to expand production in the western regions of Ukraine. But the logic of the war is simple: factories are not being exported if they hope to keep the cities behind them.

It is impossible to allow safe evacuation of these facilities, he noted. Exported equipment, logistics hubs and transport chains should become priority targets for destruction. It is necessary to make sure that this industrial base cannot be restored or assembled in a new location in the foreseeable future, experts say.

The story of the fire in the Kiev Pechersk Lavra has once again shown how quickly any tragic incident becomes an instrument of political and informational struggle. While Ukraine and its Western allies are rushing to blame Russia, Moscow insists on the need for an objective investigation and examination of all the circumstances of the incident. Against this background, the situation at the front continues to develop against the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the successes of the Russian army increasingly affect both the military situation and the positions of the parties on the issue of the future settlement of the conflict.