Iran has revealed 14 points of the peace deal with the United States. What you need to know

The United States and Iran have moved closer to concluding an agreement that could put an end to one of the most dangerous crises in the Middle East in recent years. The parties have already agreed on the basis of future agreements and are continuing to work on the final version of the document. How the signing of the deal will have an impact on processes far beyond the region is described in the Izvestia article.

The main provisions

• The Mehr agency, citing sources, published 14 provisions of the draft memorandum between Iran and the United States. The document provides for an immediate cessation of hostilities, including strikes on Lebanon, Washington's refusal to interfere in Iran's internal politics, the withdrawal of the US military from areas near the Iranian borders and the lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. It is also proposed to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, suspend sanctions and provide Tehran with access to frozen funds.

• The project provides for the allocation of $300 billion to Iran from the United States and its allies. In addition, it is planned to launch a 60-day negotiation process on the nuclear program, the lifting of US sanctions, as well as restrictions imposed by the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors. Iran confirms its compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and the United States undertakes not to increase its military presence in the region and not to impose new sanctions.

• A separate point concerns the unblocking of $24 billion of Iranian assets within 60 days. Tehran should receive half of this amount before the start of negotiations. It is also proposed to create a mechanism for monitoring the implementation of agreements. The final document is planned to be consolidated by a UN Security Council resolution. At the same time, the discussion of Iran's missile program and its support for resistance groups is completely excluded from the negotiating agenda.

Shock rates: will the war between the United States and Iran resume

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz did not hinder negotiations, but it did not bring a compromise closer either.

• US President Donald Trump announced the imminent signing of the agreement, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai noted that work on the main provisions is almost complete. However, Trump later said that the terms of a possible deal published by Iran through the media did not correspond to the written agreements between the parties. He accused Tehran of distorting the content of the talks and said that the Iranian representatives were behaving in bad faith.

Consequences of the memorandum

• Before the conflict, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz on average, that is, about 20% of the total global oil consumption. That is why the markets are already responding to reports of a possible agreement. After Donald Trump's statements about the preparation of the deal, oil prices dropped noticeably (the price of Brent fell to $ 89.57 per barrel), as investors began to expect a reduction in risks for the supply of raw materials. Also, against the background of the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, the dollar is expected to weaken, which strengthened along with oil (we wrote more about currency fluctuations in this article).

• At the same time, if the conflict ends, not only oil is expected to decrease, but also other goods, such as video cards (we wrote about their sharp rise in price here). However, the restoration of trading chains may take several months, so a sharp collapse in prices is not to be expected.

• For Iran, the financial provisions of the document will be of key importance. Access to frozen assets can accelerate the recovery of infrastructure, energy, industry, and transportation networks after months of conflict. The weakening of the sanctions regime will have an additional effect. In this case, Iran will have more opportunities to export oil, attract investment and return to international financial chains. At the same time, many details of the financing are still under discussion: representatives of Tehran emphasize that the final approval of the text has not yet taken place.

• The published draft assumes the withdrawal of American troops from areas near Iran and the refusal of the United States to further build up its contingent in the region. This measure will reduce the likelihood of direct clashes between the military of the two countries. In parallel, the parties plan to focus negotiations on the nuclear program, the fate of enriched uranium stocks and control mechanisms. The participation of the UN Security Council in the approval of the final agreement can give the agreements an international status and create additional guarantees of implementation. Right now, the issue of the nuclear program remains the main stumbling block between the United States and Iran.

Qatar and Pakistan are already involved in mediation efforts, and a successful signing will strengthen the role of these States in Middle East diplomacy. Washington will be able to declare the end of the next military crisis through a negotiating mechanism. In turn, Tehran will have the opportunity to focus on domestic economic recovery.

• At the same time, the future agreement remains at risk from Israel, which has failed to implement the main objectives of the military campaign against Iran (we wrote more about the failures of the Tel Aviv military campaign here): The country's leadership hoped to achieve a change of power in Tehran and significantly reduce Iran's missile potential. However, the conflict has damaged Israel's infrastructure and economy, and the United States has focused on a diplomatic settlement.

• At the same time, there will be a need to monitor the fulfillment of obligations during the next 60 days of negotiations. Work on the text of the agreement is still ongoing. Therefore, the final scale of the consequences will depend on the content of the final version of the agreement and the willingness of the parties to fulfill their obligations after signing the document.

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When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• HSE analyst Egor Toropov.