The political scientist spoke about possible scenarios of Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has entered one of the most dangerous phases in recent weeks, but it is premature to talk about a complete and demonstrative closure of the Strait by Iran in the near future. This was stated on June 10 by political analyst Dmitry Brije to Izvestia.

According to him, such a step remains an extreme measure for Tehran, since a complete blockade will affect not only the United States and its allies, but also key Asian energy consumers, including China, India and South Korea. The expert also noted that Russia is among the countries with which Iran is not interested in completely severing economic ties, with which cooperation remains in a number of areas.

"Iran is likely to act in a logic of controlled escalation. These may include restrictions on shipping, increased risks for tankers, pressure on insurance companies, demonstrative military maneuvers and occasional detentions of ships. This approach allows Tehran to increase pressure on the oil market without formally declaring a blockade," the orientalist explained.

He stressed that such a strategy gives Iran the opportunity to maintain space for possible negotiations, while at the same time influencing energy prices through increased uncertainty.

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Israel and Iran exchanged blows, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea was under threat of being blocked.

In the near future, Bridge estimates the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a medium—probability scenario that can be realized only if the conflict sharply escalates, for example, in the event of new US or Israeli strikes on Iranian territory or the disruption of diplomatic channels.

Separately, the political scientist noted the role of Tel Aviv and Washington in a possible escalation, pointing out that the parties strive to maintain a balance between military pressure and preventing a full-scale regional war. In his opinion, the most likely scenarios remain limited pinpoint strikes, low-intensity maritime tensions, or a diplomatic pause after an exchange of actions.

Bridge also added that the oil market is already responding not only to actual supply disruptions, but also to expectations of possible risks. In case of further escalation, oil prices may rise and inflationary pressures in the global economy may increase.

On the same day, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces in the Middle East (CENTCOM) announced on the social network X (ex. Twitter) that the US Armed Forces have completed self-defense strikes against Iran. They attacked air defense facilities, ground control points and radar stations near the Strait of Hormuz, using precision-guided munitions from U.S. Air Force and Navy fighter jets.

On June 9, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Iran should receive a "decisive response" to its attack against an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said that a deal between Washington and Tehran could be concluded despite new US strikes on Iran.