"Minus" in CTP: will insurance become more expensive for Russian drivers
Insurance companies have noted an increase in unprofitability in the CTP system: the level of payments to victims of road accidents in the first four months of this year exceeded 100% for the first time. The Russian Union of Motor Insurers (RSA) explains this by an increase in the price of spare parts and an increase in fraud in this type of insurance. Experts' opinions on the prospects for increasing the cost of insurance differ. The details are in the Izvestia article.
It becomes unprofitable
According to the results of the first four months of this year, the level of CTP payments, including business expenses, reached 104.3% on average in Russia. This is reported by the Russian Union of Motor Insurers (RSA). This means that CTP becomes unprofitable, since insurers are forced to pay for losses in excess of the amount of insurance premiums collected.
The RSA estimated that the average CTP payment in January–July increased by 8.6% and reached 119,197 rubles (for the same period last year — 109,777 rubles). The average premium for annual compulsory motor insurance policies increased slightly compared to the same period last year and reached 7,557 rubles, said Evgeny Ufimtsev, President of the Russian Automobile Association. He specified that in the first four months, a total of 22 million CTP contracts were concluded, of which 8.1 million were short—term policies. The average premium for them was 210 rubles.
"The reform of the individualization of CTP tariffs increases equity and stimulates responsible driving. It is thanks to her that insurers manage to restrain tariffs in conditions of an increased level of payments. However, it is also necessary to strengthen measures to combat fraud and unfair practices, which will ensure a reduction in the level of payments, taking into account the cost of doing business, below 100% and make the market more stable and transparent," said Evgeny Ufimtsev.
The RSA reported that the total amount of CTP premiums collected in the first four months of 2026 amounted to 106.4 billion rubles, and the total amount of payments was 91.3 billion rubles. At the same time, the amount of payments does not include deductions to the compensation fund and expenses for doing business with insurance companies, the Union clarified. After deducting these indicators, the total CTP profit for the specified period is less than the total payout, the organization explained.
Causes and solutions
Among the reasons in the RSA are the general deterioration of the economic situation, as well as the rising cost of spare parts and repairs. In addition, the increase in loss-making at Avtograzhdank was caused by "increased use of unfair practices and fraud, insufficient control over the purchase of CTP policies by drivers, and uncertainty about the position of courts on super-limit payments," the Union told Izvestia.
— The RSA is preparing to introduce in the fall of 2026 photo-video recording of vehicles traveling without CTP policies. We are also actively working with law enforcement agencies to combat insurance fraud. Legislative work is underway aimed at limiting over—the-limit payments and reducing unfair practices, the Union said about the measures being taken.
Reduce costs
Igor Morzharetto, an auto expert and partner at the Autostat analytical agency, explains the departure of CTP to the "negative" with constantly more expensive repairs and higher prices for spare parts. In addition, the increase in payments is due to the growth of fraudulent schemes in Avtograzhdank in a number of regions, he believes. In his opinion, the current efforts of the insurance community and their interaction with legislators, law enforcement agencies and the courts are primarily aimed at reducing CTP costs.
— One of the most striking examples of such a decrease is the recent decision of the Constitutional Court, which limited the amount of payments under avtograzhdanka to 400 thousand rubles. In addition, the joint work of insurance companies and law enforcement agencies to identify and suppress fraudulent activities in the field of CTP has noticeably increased. All this is aimed at reducing the costs of insurers," Igor Morzharetto told Izvestia.
In the current situation, there is a risk that in order to restore the balance, insurance companies will still have to revise their tariffs or change certain coefficients that affect the final cost of the policy, the expert believes. However, he hopes that the introduction of monitoring the availability of insurance using cameras, announced in October, will avoid such a scenario.
— Now only a traffic police officer on the road can check the availability of a CTP policy — since last spring, it has been no longer required when registering a vehicle. The introduction of an insurance monitoring mechanism using cameras, coupled with the substantial fines provided by law for its absence, will force drivers who ignore this requirement to issue a policy. This will increase the volume of insurance premiums for this type of insurance and will help to balance the fees and payments for CTP," Igor Morzharetto believes.
Can't you avoid a promotion?
According to current legislation, insurance companies are required to allocate 22% of the volume of insurance premiums for CTP to the so—called "business expenses" (20% are operating expenses and 2% are deductions to the compensation fund of the Russian Federation), Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, reminds.
— Taking into account the fact that incomes from avtogradanka already exceed expenses by 4.3%, it turns out that in order to simply "go to zero", insurance companies need to increase their revenue by more than 26%. It is unlikely that this will be achieved only by introducing monitoring of insurance using cameras, especially since, according to the insurers themselves, no more than 10% of drivers drive without a policy. I'm afraid that in this situation it is unlikely to be possible to avoid an increase in the cost of CTP in one way or another," Maxim Kadakov believes.
The editor-in-chief of Za Rulem also calls the initiative to increase the limit of payments for damage to life and health from the current 500 thousand rubles to 2 million rubles within Avtograzhdanka as additional factors in the growth of insurance prices. This will inevitably lead to an even greater increase in the costs of insurance companies, he emphasizes.
Insurance companies have two ways to solve the problem of CTP loss: reducing costs or increasing revenues, says Anton Shaparin, Vice President of the National Automobile Union (NAS). In his opinion, both levers will be used.
— We have been seeing for a long time how disconnected the cost of repairs and the prices of spare parts in price guides are from reality. At the same time, insurers predict auto insurance in general and CTP in particular as one of the triggers of market growth. Obviously, in the current situation, this is possible only by increasing fees from this type of insurance — by further expanding the tariff range, as well as a local or global revision of the coefficients affecting the cost of the policy," the vice president of NAS told Izvestia.
The revision of insurance tariffs (both base rates and coefficients) is within the competence of the Bank of Russia, the Russian Union of Motor Insurers noted.
— At the moment, the RSA has no information on whether the Bank of Russia plans to expand the base rate corridors or, for example, change territorial coefficients in connection with the current situation, — the Union told Izvestia.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation could not promptly respond to Izvestia's request regarding the possibility of revising the CTP tariff corridor or coefficients.
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