The overbearing: The elections in Armenia are turning the political balance in the country around

The first results of the key parliamentary elections in Armenia are capable of turning the country's future political vector around. According to the first exit polls, Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is losing to the coalition of opposition forces led by Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia. This is a defining moment for the citizens of the republic: there were an unusually large number of voters, and opponents of the government faced incessant searches, arrests and provocations. At the same time, the atmosphere on the streets of Yerevan, where the wine festival was held on the same day, remained calm and measured. Experts believe that the opposition may have a real chance of forming a new government. About why the citizens of the republic do not trust current politicians and what Armenians think about Russia — in the Izvestia report from Yerevan.

The elections in Armenia have ended

On the evening of June 7, when polling stations closed all over Armenia, the atmosphere in the capital hardly changed. All day long, people walked with a calm measured step to vote for the political future of their country. One of the voters, when asked who he would choose today, said that he would decide everything on the spot.

— I don't know who I'm going to vote for. For "Spider-Man", probably. Don't you know? It's not a joke," he said, laughing.

One of the "chips" of these elections was indeed "Spider-Man". It was registered under the number 2 as the "Me against All" party. A van completely covered with propaganda posters with the face of a fictional hero stood next to the National Gallery in the center of Yerevan.

This image has become a fairly clear indicator of the absurdity or even political spectacle that has unfolded in Armenia and attracted an indecent amount of attention from the world community. The election campaign itself has become one of the most nerve—racking in recent years, with searches at headquarters, numerous voting violations, and detentions of opposition supporters.

According to the first data from the opposition exit polls, "Spider-Man" did not make it to the top, but the collective Armenian opposition turned out to be in it. The bloc, consisting of several political forces at once, collectively gained 52.9%, while the "Civil Contract" of the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan received only 32.7%.

The best result was shown by the party of his main opponent, Samvel Karapetyan, "Strong Armenia" (29%). It is followed by the "Armenia" bloc of former President Robert Kocharyan (13.2%), "Prosperous Armenia" Gagik Tsarukyan (6.1%) and "Wings of Unity" Arman Tatoyan with 4.6%. The turnout was expected to be high and amounted to 58.97% — about one and a half million people.

In the evening, the Central Election Commission of Armenia published the first results of the vote. Pashinyan's Civil Contract party scored 57% when counting ballots from 110 polling stations.

"Judging by the turnout, the political forces still managed to mobilize their electorate," Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU, said in an interview with Izvestia.— If the exit poll data is at least approximately confirmed in the voting results announced by the Central Election Commission of Armenia, there is a prospect of forming an alliance of political forces of Karapetyan and Kocharyan.

Given the unprecedented pressure on the opposition, this result was unexpected. Throughout the day, news feeds were filled with reports of numerous violations by the authorities. Footage even appeared online showing a representative of the ruling party entering the voting booth and directing the "process." It was reported about the taking out of ballots and the open campaigning of government representatives right at the polling stations. A few minutes before the doors were closed, trucks with military personnel were centrally brought to some of them, as the oppositionists stated, probably for the "correct" vote. At the same time, any criticism of the Cabinet of Ministers on the Internet was promptly "cleaned up": the French special services helped the Armenian authorities to block objectionable content, the media reported.

There were unusually many police officers on the streets of the city that day. The Armenian Interior Ministry regularly reported on the increase in voting violations. By the end of the day, the country's Investigative Committee announced 59 criminal cases. The main blow fell on Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia": by the end of the day, the number of detained representatives of the bloc reached 200. Even before the start of voting, the CEC agreed to the criminal prosecution of six candidates from this party, and the day before the commission considered the demand of the Republic party to remove Strong Armenia from the election race, but eventually rejected the appeal.

The pressure has affected almost all key opposition forces that are considered "pro-Russian" in Armenia. Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" CEC had previously approved the prosecution of three candidates, and on the day of the vote, the police brought about 50 party supporters to the offices. Kocharyan's Armenia bloc also reported mass detentions of its activists under the guise of summonses for interrogations. In Gyumri, security forces took away the head of the local headquarters, Babken Saroyan, while simultaneously isolating more than a dozen representatives of the bloc.

It seems that the Prime Minister has finally lost his nerve, as opposed to the way he has been methodically posting meditative "rils" on social media in recent months, sending a "heart" to subscribers each time.

Attempts to remove the opposition from the elections and put pressure on it indicate concern in the Pashinyan government, political analyst Hayk Khalatyan said in a conversation with Izvestia. They are trying to eliminate competitors because they fear for the election results.

— The campaign is accompanied by arrests and repressions against the opposition. This, of course, creates serious doubts about the integrity of the elections," he said. — In any case, it shows that the current political course of the authorities no longer enjoys the support of the whole society and does not reflect the interests of the Armenian people.

A typical day for Yerevan

On the eve and on the day of the vote, a wine festival was held in the city, for which several streets were blocked. Wine producers' tents were located on both sides of the road. At the entrance, you had to buy a glass and small tickets, which you also had to "vote" with, but not for the parties, but for the type of wine you liked. This kind of "voting" was clearly more to the liking of the locals than the same type of ballot boxes, repeated polling stations and incessant scandals.

"I'm working tomorrow, I don't know if I'm going to go," a guy drinking wine with his friends on the steps of a store told me on the eve of the election. — Who would you vote for?

The majority of Armenians spoke positively about Russia. Those who are younger are naturally in favor of a pro—European course, but they do not want to worsen ties with Moscow. However, there were also more radical residents.

— I will vote for Pashinyan, even though I don't like him. — said the young Armenian woman, "voting" for a glass of wine. — I don't want Armenia to build relations with Russia.

However, the problem of this entire election campaign was precisely uncertainty: according to IRI, 43% of respondents either did not disclose their choice or had not yet decided who to vote for. The main intrigue was connected with this: opinion polls could not give an accurate picture when almost half of the respondents refused to name their candidate.

— After the war, everyone in Artsakh was tired, the people were shaking very much. People didn't even understand how to live after that. A lot of young guys died," the taxi driver told us as we passed a military cemetery on a hillside. — Look, everything is full of flags. After that, no one believes the politicians anymore.

After the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia, this became a systemic trend, Dmitry Sidorov emphasized. Low support ratings were typical for both the ruling party and the prime minister, as well as for the opposition.

- One of the reasons for the frustration in society is the lack of a clear vision among the political leadership of the country's future. Not everyone is satisfied with the radical changes that Pashinyan has initiated," the expert added.

In the latest IRI survey, 40% of respondents said they did not trust any of the political and public figures, and another 13% refused to answer. At the same time, the army is the most trusted — 77% of respondents are satisfied with it. Then there are the police, local authorities and the Armenian Apostolic Church. Pashinyan has a separate conflict with the latter.

What are Armenia's problems?

The conflict with the church escalated after the defeat in Karabakh. Some of the clergy supported the protests against territorial concessions to Azerbaijan and became one of the centers of resistance to the prime minister's course towards peace with Baku, rapprochement with the West and a departure from previous ties with Russia.

In response, the authorities began accusing church leaders of interfering in politics and attempts at destabilization. Then searches, detentions, and criminal cases against the clergy began.

— I will vote for Samvel, I just like him. My mom will vote for him too. Pashinyan has lost Karabakh, how can he be supported? — said the man, pouring a glass of wine at the festival. — I am a veteran of the Karabakh war and the way it ended is humiliating.

However, criticism is built not only around lost wars. Many complained about the "social network". According to the same veteran, his pension is 70 thousand drams, while renting an apartment in Yerevan costs 200 thousand drams.

Armenia's economy grew under Pashinyan, of course — for example, due to membership in the EAEU, from which the country will have to leave for the sake of the European Union — but social problems have not disappeared. After a jump in poverty to 27% in 2020, the figure dropped to 23.7% in 2023 and 21.7% in 2024, but about one in five residents of the country still remains below the national poverty line.

Before the elections, the authorities defiantly raised the minimum pension from 36 thousand to 46 thousand drams. However, the minimum consumer basket in Armenia is estimated at about 68-69 thousand per month per person. In fact, it is often possible to meet elderly people on the streets of Yerevan who are forced to ask for money. As a rule, these are single women who do not even have enough for food.

— I studied in Moscow, received medical education, and was also treated for cancer in Russia. My son went to Russia. I live here now, and I really don't have enough pensions," one of them said as we took shelter from the rain under one of the canopies.

It was often difficult to focus on one topic when talking to local residents. It is difficult for them to name any specific problem in the country: usually there were several of them at once.

— In general, everything is on gas, there are heaters at home, even cars use it. Yes, we depend on Russian gas. If the price rises, it will be a very big problem for us," a local resident named David told me.

Currently, the republic receives Russian gas at a discounted price: under the contract, it is $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the price of gas in Europe exceeds $600. Moscow has already warned that with Yerevan's further rapprochement with the EU, the conditions may be revised. At the current tariff of about 143.7 drams per cubic meter, a family that consumes 200-300 cubic meters of gas per month in winter pays up to about 43 thousand drams. In private homes or poorly insulated housing, bills can reach up to 60 thousand drams and above.

This may also affect local businesses. Numerous streets of Yerevan are filled with small shops and cafes, which are unique drivers of the economy. Switching from the Russian preferential price would lead to a multiple increase in prices for everything, including heating, electricity, rent, delivery of goods and small industries.

If Pashinyan manages to maintain his position, it is highly likely that the tension in Russian-Armenian relations will continue to worsen, Dmitry Sidorov stressed. If the opposition wins, it will have to look for answers to rather difficult questions, including on domestic policy.

In any case, despite the deep distrust of politicians, the citizens of the country still managed to mobilize and come to the polling stations. The official calculations of the Central Election Commission and the first weeks will show what their choice will be. But given the ability of the Armenian street protest to "flare up" at the most unexpected moment, it is impossible to rule out shocks in the coming days.

The main battle between the opposition and the government in the republic will unfold on the morning of June 8, when Yerevan wakes up to a new political reality. And the tenacity with which the current authorities have been putting pressure on the opposition is unlikely to weaken after the closure of the polling stations.