Participants of the SPIEF 2026 energy panel gave forecasts on oil prices

The traditional conclusion of the energy panel of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was the forecast of oil prices for the coming year from the panelists. Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov, Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan, Nobuo Tanaka, former head of the International Energy Agency, and David Gadzhimirzaev, President of the TOFS Group of companies, shared their assessments.

Igor Sechin called the situation in the Strait of Hormuz a key factor for the medium-term dynamics of the oil market.

"If you tell me exactly how long the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will last, then it will be easier for us to determine the level of impact on the price of the fallout of 16 million barrels per day," he said.

According to the head of Rosneft, if restrictions related to the conflict in the region are lifted, the average oil price may reach $95-96 per barrel by the end of the year.

"It will take about six months to restore the positive dynamics. And then in a year we will see about 80-85 dollars per barrel. Because it takes a lot of time and investment just to restore supplies. Thus, by the second half of 2027, it will probably be possible to talk about a return to the fundamental indicators of the market. It seems to me that this will be a more objective approach to pricing issues," Sechin said.

He also presented a scenario in which additional sanctions would be imposed on Russian oil.

"If 7 million Russian oil exports are added to the 16 million barrels of restrictions, then another $ 100 will be added to the level of 150-160," he said.

At the same time, the head of Rosneft expressed doubt about the possibility of fully implementing such restrictions.

"And it is unlikely that their plan will be implemented the way they would like. And the increased price level compensates for the shortage of sanctioned volumes. Therefore, you probably shouldn't step on a rake here, because a stick can harm you," Sechin stressed.

Concluding his reply, he noted the high degree of uncertainty in the market.

"There are a lot of risks. And given that political decisions are beginning to shape fundamental indicators, anything is possible. But we are ready for it. And I think that we will compensate for a significant part of the restrictions that may be imposed. At the same time, what will be the cost of petroleum products at gas stations in California? We should also look at it," he added.

The former head of the International Energy Agency, Nobuo Tanaka, said that in conditions of a shortage of supply, the price of oil could rise sharply in the coming months.

"And I think it can reach a historical level of more than $ 170 per barrel, and even higher, before it starts to decline. This is a very, very serious situation. And I believe that Russia will become a very important player in the context of increasing supply," Tanaka said.

Uzbek Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov, answering a question about the market prospects, stressed the importance of creating a stable price environment and did not rule out that in the future quotes could return to the level of about $ 60 per barrel.

David Gadzhimirzaev, President of the TOFS Group of companies, also noted the difficulty of forecasting in the current conditions. According to him, the world's largest banks expect oil prices in the range of $ 78 to $ 90 per barrel against the background of the Middle East crisis, and when various shock scenarios are implemented, they predict the level of $ 60-70. At the same time, he expressed confidence that the price of oil should not fall below $ 60 per barrel.