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- "The Central Bank's 8-10% rate will be comfortable for businesses and will help economic growth"
"The Central Bank's 8-10% rate will be comfortable for businesses and will help economic growth"
The comfortable level of the key business rate is 8-10%, Alexander Vedyakhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank, told Izvestia at SPIEF 2026. According to him, with such values, there will be good investment growth. He also spoke about the development of new technologies. Artificial intelligence is now being actively implemented in all federal executive authorities. AI can figure out where there are problems with roads, traffic jams, and who has a leaky roof. It will also help reduce opportunities for corruption. How future technologies help in the fight against fraudsters and deepfakes and how AI will change banks — in an exclusive interview with Alexander Vedyakhin to Izvestia.
"Even after the rate cut, we will see the investment development of the economy in at least a year"
— We wanted to start with a question that interests many— interest rates. How do you assess the prospects for a reduction in the key rate for this and next year?
— That's a good question. Probably one of the most popular at the SPIEF. The consensus is that the rate will decrease. Next, we need to look at the actions of the regulator and how confidently it will move towards easing monetary policy.
Businesses and banks, of course, would like to see a faster rate cut. But the regulator has its own arguments why it can act more conservatively. We'll see. In general, the downward trend is absolutely correct, and, of course, everyone supports it.
— Do you think the Central Bank can lower the rate faster than previously expected?
— It all depends on inflation. We hope that this will happen. In general, when we talk about the key rate, it is important to understand that business and economics are more interested in the real rate rather than the key rate itself. This is the difference between key and inflation.
A business can transfer price increases to the cost of goods and services. These processes are strongly interconnected. But the difference between inflation and the key interest rate is the cost that a business incurs.
The real rate now exceeds 10%. And we can see from Russian and global statistics that, unfortunately, there is no normal economic development at this level.
— And what should be the real rate for businesses to be comfortable and the economy to really develop?
— A good level of the real business rate is 4-6%. If we add to this an inflation target of 4%, we get a key 8-10%. At this level, there will be good investment growth. In other words, the Central Bank's 8-10% rate will be comfortable for businesses and will help economic growth.
With a key rate of 12%, investments will also start to increase. But this process will take a long time to accelerate.
At the same time, it cannot be said that if tomorrow the real rate becomes 8% or 6%, then the day after tomorrow growth will begin immediately. Unfortunately, it stops much faster than it starts. Therefore, even after the rate cut, we will see the investment development of the economy in at least a year. Acceleration will be decent.
"We hope that by the end of the year the key rate will be about 12%"
— If we talk about the key rate, what level do you expect by the end of this year?
— We hope that by the end of the year the key rate will be about 12%. We are counting on it very much. But the decision is made by the regulator. We always emphasize that this is a completely independent decision, and we wish him wisdom.
— Do you see any risks now due to lower profits in the banking sector? Can consolidation increase against this background?
— The banking sector is still very profitable. We definitely don't see any prerequisites for bank defaults.
What could cause a default? The first risk is problems with the quality of the loan portfolio. But there is no such crisis of delays in the market now and is not expected.
The second risk is capital problems. Different banks feel differently in terms of capital adequacy. But even if someone's standards are approaching the limits, there are standard mechanisms for getting out of this situation.
The third risk is a liquidity crisis, when the bank simply runs out of money. We're doing pretty well here, too. A financial institution can always contact the regulator and receive a line for liquidity support, if necessary.
Therefore, I would not say that something big and complicated can happen in the market. Currently, the situation in the banking and interbank markets is quite stable.
"New technologies will radically change the banking sector"
— Now the topic of new technologies. Banks are among the first to introduce new solutions and invest in their development. How do you think new technologies can change the banking sector in the next five to ten years?
— I think new technologies will radically change the banking sector. First of all, this concerns artificial intelligence and AI agents.
We are used to the fact that artificial intelligence mainly helps us to extract information from a large text, write something, generate a picture. That is, he was an assistant. Now AI is reaching the next level: it is no longer just helping, but becoming a subject, an actor.
At the St. Petersburg Forum, we opened GigaNetwork, an environment where AI agents can interact with each other.
Let's take a simple household example. You want to buy something familiar and constantly recurring: pet food, napkins, some everyday goods. It is unlikely that a person enjoys choosing the same thing every time in an offline or online store.
Now you can assign a task to your agent, and he will buy everything himself. For example: buy pet food. Do you have a cat or a dog?
— I don't have a pet.
— Get started, it's always a joy at home. Let's say that when you have a cat or dog, you can instruct an agent to buy the right set of goods for the pet. You press a button, he tracks everything himself, buys it, and they just bring it to you.
At the same time, you set a limit: for example, to buy for 3 thousand or 5 thousand rubles. The maximum damage is that the agent will buy the wrong food, and you will spend 3 thousand on the wrong product. It all depends on what level of risk you expose.
It seems like a simple action. Now imagine how a legal entity works in this sense. There are much more purchases, different volumes, and the selection process is more complicated.
If a person can spend 15 minutes choosing a conditional feed for an animal, then it may take days for a company to choose an assembly, part, or material supply. Reducing this time to a few hours is a huge reserve for productivity growth.
This not only reduces the time, but also optimizes the price. The agent will select the same product for the buyer at the best, lowest cost. For the seller, on the contrary, he will find an opportunity to sell more expensive.
This means that the market will level off. When agents start working en masse, the price difference will gradually decrease. Therefore, the economy will change, with the active introduction of AI agents, business models will change, and GDP will grow.
— Are such options with automatic purchases through artificial intelligence already starting to be implemented, or is this just the future?
— This is already a reality, although for now, of course, it's just the beginning. We have an environment for AI agents - GigaNetwork. We invite everyone to try it. It's very simple.: You don't need any programming skills there. In fact, you write in Russian what you need to do.
Of course, the request should be structured so that you get exactly what you want, and not just some result. It's like a memo: you formulate a task and pass it on to your agents.
"If the stamp "generated by AI" is put everywhere, technology may lose"
— The authorities have already begun to develop regulations for the introduction of artificial intelligence. Do you see any risks in this? Some say that it is premature to introduce regulation while the new sphere has not yet developed.
— This is an important and big question. I think there will be AI regulation eventually. There is an active discussion about this right now.
But, as far as I understand, it takes place precisely in line with technology support, and not prohibitive regulation. We already have enough bans, we probably need to pause here.
But supportive regulation is really what we need. Artificial intelligence is the technology of the future for both business and government. Of course, we must develop it. And, as far as I know the direction of this discussion, it is in the direction of supporting the development of AI.
— Is content labeling supportive or restrictive regulation?
— It all depends on who this content is created for and why it is needed. Conventionally, if you generate pictures of cats, dogs, or something else for yourself and don't use them anywhere else, why label them? It is unlikely that you will be happy if the inscription appears on your picture: "generated by artificial intelligence."
But if such content is presented to the general public, if it goes to the media, then it is logical to indicate that it was created with the help of AI. Otherwise, a large number of deepfakes appear — we can already see this.
At the same time, labeling may not significantly reduce the number of deepfakes, because they are made for deception. No one will put a mark there for sure. But it will probably be possible to avoid any misunderstandings with the help of labeling. Here, again, it is important not to overdo it. If the stamp "generated by AI" is put everywhere, the technology may lose. People will stop using them, and we will stop developing.
— And what effect do you expect from the introduction of artificial intelligence in money? The president's order referred to 11 trillion rubles by 2030.
— Yes, that's right — 11.2 trillion rubles by 2030. But it is important to understand that this figure was set before the technology switched to active, commercial agency. Taking into account the new realities, I think the amount may be higher. Our colleagues from Yandex and Yakov & Partners have already estimated the value at more than 12 trillion rubles. Let's see how it will look by 2030.
The potential is huge. The volume of the agent economy could reach $4 trillion worldwide by 2030. This is a very big area.
— Do you think the introduction of artificial intelligence and new technologies will accelerate economic growth in Russia?
- of course. The introduction of AI is a significant increase in labor productivity and, consequently, a significant increase in GDP.
"The introduction of AI will significantly reduce corruption intensity"
— At the last SPIEF, cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the Savings Bank on the use of GigaChat to optimize budget processes was discussed. How is this project developing now?
— It's developing well. Colleagues from the Ministry of Finance are taking new heights, adding more and more tasks. We support them in this.
Artificial intelligence is being actively introduced in all federal executive authorities, as well as in the regions. The pace is very serious, the approach is systematic, so we are confident of a good result.
— Have you already received the first results for the past year?
— The first results are there, they are interesting. But I think that colleagues from the Ministry of Finance will tell you about them better.
— How else can artificial intelligence be used in the public administration system in the coming years?
— I think artificial intelligence can be useful in almost every area of public administration. This also applies to the municipal level: AI can understand where there are problems with roads, traffic jams, who has a leaky roof, and how to properly prioritize applications. And to more complex systems, for example, the management of economic sectors. AI can help in making decisions and working with a large number of documents that each ministry has.
— Can this help reduce the risks of misuse of budget funds?
— I think so. That's what the agents are talking about. An agent can't negotiate, can't take bribes, or be lazy. This is, of course, the "ideal employee": he goes and does exactly what he was told.
This will certainly increase transparency and reduce transaction costs. And I think the introduction of AI will significantly reduce corruption intensity.
"Artificial intelligence in cybersecurity is always a war of armor and projectile"
— A separate topic is cybersecurity. To what extent is artificial intelligence already helping the Hacker detect fraud and threats?
— Artificial intelligence in cybersecurity is always a war of armor and projectile. Scammers use AI for attacks, and the "white knights" for protection. This is an important confrontation, and it will continue for a long time. Attack and attack.
We can't do anything here without artificial intelligence. There is no regulation or ethical standards on the side of fraudsters and criminals. They just take the best, the most dangerous, the most expensive and try to attack their victims, businesses and organizations as much as possible. This is a big threat. But only artificial intelligence can resist it, too.
— You said about the confrontation. Who's winning so far?
— We are winning, of course, and we will continue to win.
— Are there any early results of using artificial intelligence in the fight against fraud, which seemed surprising a few years ago?
— Firstly, we have learned much better how to distinguish deepfakes. It is already possible to determine in advance the probability that a fraudster is calling. If the client agrees, such a call will be rejected immediately.
This is not only how we work, but it has already become a market practice in a very short period of time. There are many such areas, and they are all necessary in order to protect our people.
— This is the second time you've mentioned deepfakes. Are they being used more often?
— Deepfakes are becoming more difficult to distinguish, that's the thing. If earlier it was immediately clear that the video was generated, now it is really difficult. I see my deepfakes regularly. In some cases, it's immediately clear that it's definitely not me. And sometimes I even wonder.
Of course, I remember what I said and what it looked like. But the technology is already becoming complex.
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