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- Top trash: In 100 years, debris in orbit could make the climate on Earth extreme
Top trash: In 100 years, debris in orbit could make the climate on Earth extreme
Microfragments of space debris can change the Earth's climate, Russian scientists have found out. For the first time in the world, they have quantified how small man-made debris in orbit weakens solar radiation that is directed towards our planet. According to calculations, this factor does not play a role now, but if the current rate of garbage accumulation continues, the scale of the blackout may increase thousands of times in 80-100 years. The researchers warn that this could affect climate processes and living ecosystems in the future, so the rules for the operation of satellite groupings need to be reviewed today.
How debris in Orbit can change the Earth's Climate
Space debris — fragments of spent satellites and upper stages in low—Earth orbits - may become a problem in the future not only for astronomers and astronauts, but also for climatologists. This conclusion was reached by the staff of the Research and Testing Center of the Central Research Institute of the Aerospace Forces of the Ministry of Defense and the Institute of Geospheric Dynamics named after Academician M.A. Sadovsky of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
For the first time in the world, scientists have quantified how the accumulation of small man-made particles in near-Earth space affects the flow of solar radiation reaching the Earth. The calculations were carried out for the wavelength range from ultraviolet to infrared radiation, which has a significant impact on the state of the ionosphere and the climate of the planet.
— Currently, debris in space creates problems for orbital stations and ground-based telescopes. However, this factor may lead to negative environmental consequences in the future. Currently, satellite debris obscures one hundred millionth of the radiation from the Sun directed towards Earth, which is insignificant, but if the pace of development of space groups continues, then in 50 years the proportion of light that does not reach us may be on the order of one millionth, Doctor of physico—mathematical sciences, a leading researcher at the laboratory, told Izvestia. Electrodynamic processes in Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Stanislav Kozlov.
He added that in recent years, the accumulation of debris in space has accelerated exponentially. If the trend continues, then on the horizon of 80-100 years, the amount of stellar energy that the planet receives may decrease by another three orders of magnitude.
This can trigger a series of climatic effects. For example, a decrease in the influx of solar energy will change the nature of atmospheric circulation and reduce the intensity of water evaporation. This, in turn, can affect the precipitation regime and make the climate extreme, increasing the number of droughts and hurricanes.
What are the most dangerous specks in space?
— The main influence is exerted by numerous small particles that are formed as a result of collisions and destruction of equipment in orbit. The more objects there are in space, the higher the probability of accidents in which large fragments break up into dozens or hundreds of new ones. This process was described back in 1978 and is known as the "Kessler syndrome," explained Marina Kuzmicheva, co—author of the study, senior researcher at the Laboratory for Modeling Geophysical Processes at IDGRAN.
According to her, there are many factors that are difficult to take into account, which makes it difficult to make an accurate forecast of space pollution in the long term. Nevertheless, the obtained model is applicable for estimating the environmental "throughput" of near-Earth space. It can be used to calculate how much garbage is allowed before irreversible changes begin. This data is useful for international organizations, such as the United Nations Committee on the Use of Outer Space, to develop preventive measures.
"If the attenuation of light is 0.1% or higher, this will theoretically have an impact on the Earth's thermal balance (due to the attenuation of infrared radiation) and on the ionosphere and the propagation of radio waves (due to ultraviolet radiation), as well as on the efficiency of solar energy and photosynthesis," the associate professor of the Department of Environmental Safety and Quality Management commented to Izvestia products of the Patrice Lumumba Institute of Ecology of the RUDN University, member of the editorial board of the scientific online journal "Waste and Resources" Tatiana Ledashcheva.
However, any modeling is based on simplifications, she noted. For example, the authors assume the spherical shape of debris particles, although the real debris has an irregular geometry. This is normal for initial development. At the next stage, the data obtained can be combined with climate models, which will allow us to proceed to forecasting environmental impacts and developing risk mitigation measures.
To combat space debris, the expert explained, two approaches are proposed: active (for example, to catch and take away large objects with nets, harpoons, lasers or ion beams) and preventive (to design satellites so that they themselves descend from orbit).
Sergey Nikolaishvili, a researcher at the E.K. Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that changes in the intensity of solar radiation can affect photochemical processes in the atmosphere, on which the existence of the ozone layer depends.
According to him, from the point of view of radiation attenuation, it is the concentration of particles that is essential, and their composition, shape and size are not important. At the same time, the estimates made are approximate, since scientists receive the necessary data only from mastered orbits.
— The authors of the study applied two mathematical models — American and European. The estimates made show that so far the dimming factor from space debris can be ignored. Dust particles, volcanic ash and other aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere, along with clouds, change the flow of solar radiation that falls on the Earth by tens of percent," said Sergey Yazev, senior researcher at the Institute of Solar—Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, director of the Astronomical Observatory of Irkutsk State University.
According to the scientist, effective technologies for cleaning near-Earth space from man-made pollution do not exist today. Such projects have not yet been widely developed, as they require significant costs, while the potential damage from the problem is still estimated to be limited. At the same time, in low orbits, a significant part of the small particles eventually lose height and burn up in the atmosphere. In fact, natural processes today are coping with the cleaning of near space more efficiently than humans. The expert noted that, in general, we are talking about a problem that will become relevant in a generation, but it is necessary to think about ways to solve it now.
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