The ideal key rate for business was named at the SPIEF

To ensure good investment growth, a key rate of 8-10% is needed. Alexander Vedyakhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Sberbank, told Izvestia on June 5 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2026).

The topic of further rate cuts became one of the key topics at the forum. According to Vedyakhin, most experts expect the cycle of monetary policy easing to continue, but it is important to take into account the decisions and position of the regulator.

"Businesses and banks would like the decline to occur at a more confident pace, but the regulator has its own arguments, so the process can be more conservative. But the chosen downward trend is absolutely correct, and, of course, everyone supports it," Vedyakhin said.

According to Vedyakhin, business pays special attention not to the nominal, but to the real interest rate — the difference between the key rate and inflation, as well as the level of costs of companies. Now, as he said, this figure is about 10%.

"A good real rate is 4-6%. Add an inflation target of 4%, and you will see that the key rate is 8-10%, and there will be good investment growth. 12% — it will already start. With a real rate of 8%, it will also start," Vedyakhin said.

At the same time, he stressed that even with a favorable interest rate policy, economic growth does not occur instantly: investment activity usually begins to increase markedly with a lag of about a year.

Modest miscalculations: up to 15% of the microbusiness may be at risk of closure in 2026.

What is the reason for this and which industries are most vulnerable?

On the same day, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that the Central Bank's key rate of 10-12% is a psychological feature, after which a business will be able to launch an investment cycle. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on May 18 that the government was taking the necessary measures to support the Russian economy. He stressed that the economy cannot be completely immune from the volatility in global markets, which negatively affects most countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said during the 10th anniversary congress of the Russian Engineering Union at the Rossiya National Center on May 14 that the topics of the key rate, the so-called long money and the strengthening of the ruble are regularly discussed with the government and the leadership of the Central Bank of Russia. Putin pointed out that in difficult circumstances, Russian companies, their managers and employees show flexibility and the ability to apply non-standard approaches.