Poland has called on the United States to host a permanent military base. What does this mean?

Poland has approached the United States with a proposal to create a permanent military base for American troops on its territory. Thus, Warsaw wants not so much to strengthen its defense capability as to heighten competition with other countries for leadership in the European NATO space and seize Germany's status as the main military ally of the United States. What Poland is trying to achieve and how its plans will affect Russia is in the Izvestia article.

American presence in Poland

• Polish Minister of National Defense Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh announced that he had submitted an official proposal to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on the creation of a new permanent base for American troops. He noted that in this way the US participation in ensuring Poland's security will increase. Later, Kosinyak-Kamysh added that a final decision had not yet been made. He promised to do everything possible to expand the American military presence, and announced that the details would be discussed between officials of the two countries.

• Currently, about 10,000 American troops are stationed in Poland, making it the third largest continental European country in terms of garrison size, after Germany and Italy. Most of the military personnel are deployed in a rotating format: they replace each other every few months, live in field camps and dormitories without families, and use local infrastructure. The basis of the rotating contingent consists of armored units.

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• There is a small part of the military personnel in Poland in a permanent format. Their facilities include the headquarters of the U.S. Army's V Corps, which manages U.S. military forces in Europe, the missile defense complex in Redzikovo, the logistics hub in Povidze, and the Laska air Base, which houses a small logistics aviation unit. In 2018, during President Donald Trump's first term, Poland had already offered the United States to establish a permanent military base called Fort Trump. Warsaw was ready to allocate $2 billion for this, but then the initiative did not arouse interest from the American side.

• Since 2020, when the two countries signed an agreement on expanded defense cooperation, Poland has been paying for the costs of the United States for the construction and maintenance of American military infrastructure. They increased from $86 million in the first year of the agreement to $500 million, which is projected for 2026. Poland allocates these funds from its budget, after which they are managed by the Pentagon. The new permanent base will require expenditures of at least $2.7 billion.

Significance for Poland

• The desire to implement an old idea and transfer American troops to permanent deployment is due to several reasons that have become relevant in recent months. During Trump's second term, the United States ceased to be a party that provides unconditional guarantees of protection even within NATO. The current White House administration no longer wants to unconditionally comply with all the obligations assumed by its predecessors: a rethink is underway. Washington believes that Europe should be able to defend itself and stop hoping that the American shield will last forever.

• In this regard, rotational troops are primarily at risk of rapid withdrawal. Moving them is much faster, cheaper, and politically safer than the parts that were permanently deployed. Significant funds are usually spent on the deployment of the latter, capital infrastructure is being built for them, and reliable logistics routes are being brought to them. Such units become "islands of the USA" in foreign countries, which the command in Washington cannot easily abandon. Poland no longer considers the current presence of American troops to be a sufficient guarantee and therefore seeks to "tie them to the ground." A permanent military base will reduce the uncertainty that the Trump administration is imposing in relations with all its partners.

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In addition, Poland is pursuing the goal of becoming the leading military and political force in Europe. The country's leadership is demonstrating in every possible way its readiness to increase its defense potential, increase military spending and rearm the army. Poland is one of the leaders of NATO in defense spending, spending over 3.5% of GDP on military spending, and recently offered to host the military, which the United States was going to withdraw from Germany. Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who is politically close to Trump, also voiced this idea. Apparently, he will have to promote the idea of a permanent base in the White House, while the United States itself is now looking more towards China and the Middle East, strengthening its presence in these areas.

• It is with Germany that Poland wants to compete for the title of the main military partner of the United States in Europe. While relations between Washington and Berlin remain strained, Warsaw is offering itself as an alternative European center for NATO. To do this, it needs more logistics centers, military depots, and troop transfer hubs, and such infrastructure must be provided with a permanent contingent that will not be withdrawn by a momentary decision of officials from the Pentagon. Poland's defense policy is being closely studied by the Baltic states, and for Warsaw this is another argument why the center of American power in Europe should be shifted from Germany to the east.

• The US military presence can help to increase its political weight in Europe. Until now, Poland has been perceived as a newcomer to European politics who has not yet grown up to give a voice within the European family. However, the status of the main defender of the Old World will provide Warsaw with the influence that Germany, France and Italy currently enjoy. Poland's economy is developing most dynamically within the EU, and therefore the country's authorities are confident that they can try to seize the leadership.

Significance for Russia

• The construction of a permanent US military base in Poland will be important not only for the internal alignment of forces in NATO. Warsaw also wants to send a signal to Moscow that it is strengthening as the alliance's foothold on the eastern flank. By itself, the transfer of American troops from the rotational to permanent category does not pose a threat to Russia, but the accompanying changes are already affecting the balance of power in Eastern Europe.

Poland may become the main point of transfer of American forces in the region. Its importance in terms of logistics will increase, and logistics is the most important factor in modern conflicts. Success on the battlefield depends on how quickly the troops will be provided with ammunition and how soon they will be able to go on combat duty. The permanent American base will be provided with everything necessary so that it can be quickly reinforced in the event of a potential conflict.

• The shift of NATO's military core to the east will also lead to a change in the negotiating track between Russia and the alliance. Berlin and Paris have always moderated relations with Moscow. They were ready to use the tools of diplomacy even in the moments of the most severe exacerbations. Warsaw is acting tougher. Therefore, the strengthening of Poland's role may lead to an increase in the influence of the states of the eastern flank of NATO on the formation of the alliance's policy towards Russia. These countries have traditionally taken a tougher stance on security issues than many Western European States. In the long run, this will complicate building relations with NATO, even if the circumstances that now negatively affect them change.

What does this mean?

• Wanting to gain more political weight, Poland is speaking out at a time when the authority of the traditional EU leaders — Germany and France — is shaken, and their relations with the United States are not as smooth as in the past. Against this background, Poland, whose president shares views with the American leader, is demonstrating rapid growth in military spending. This corresponds to the main requirement of the United States to its European allies, and therefore the moment for Warsaw's request to deploy a permanent military base was well chosen. If implemented, this will strengthen its authority and give it the desired political weight in Europe. At the same time, the permanent US military base on NATO's eastern flank will change and complicate the negotiation track between the alliance and Russia.