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- Every man for himself: is it necessary to extend the self-employment regime until 2035
Every man for himself: is it necessary to extend the self-employment regime until 2035
The State Duma proposed to the government of the Russian Federation to extend the special tax regime for the self-employed until 2035 and raise the annual income limit to 3 million rubles from 2027. This may affect the interests of millions of citizens who officially work for themselves. According to the Federal Tax Service, at the end of 2025, more than 15.4 million people used the status of professional income tax payer, and the total income of this category of taxpayers exceeded 3.1 trillion rubles. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
New professions and the service market: what will change
The appeal to the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin states that the current income threshold (2.4 million) was set in 2019 and does not take into account accumulated inflation, which, according to Rosstat, exceeded 68% during the period of the experiment.
— Self-employment has become an understandable and convenient way for millions of people to work legally. But if the income limit has not changed for years, and prices and expenses are rising, we are actually pushing some people out of a comfortable and transparent regime. It is necessary to give the self—employed a planning horizon, extend the regime and fairly index the income limit," Dmitry Gusev, the author of the initiative, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Control Committee, told Izvestia.
According to the document (available to Izvestia), some bona fide taxpayers are forced to leave the regime solely because of exceeding the established threshold, which reduces the attractiveness of legal activity. At the same time, the average salary in Russia by the end of 2025, according to Rosstat, amounted to about 100 thousand rubles per month, which makes the current salary limit equivalent to about two average salaries.
An increase in the limit by 25% will only partially compensate for the price increase and will not lead to the emergence of fundamentally new professions, the experts surveyed agree. If we take into account the real level of inflation since 2019, the income limit for the NAP should be 4 million rubles, not 3 million rubles, says the leading expert of Kontur.Externa" by Mikhail Parkhomenko. According to the SME Corporation's press service, the most dynamic growth is expected in hybrid professions at the intersection of technology and services: in IT, creative industries, education, and local service areas. According to a study by Avito Services, the number of offers from self-employed professionals on the platform has doubled (from 2019 to 2024). The largest shares were in freight transportation (18%), education (15%) and business services (12%).
The special tax regime was originally created to legalize the activities of individuals who provide services independently: craftsmen, tutors, hairdressers, whose work is inseparable from the personality of the performer, says Irina Vishnevskaya, CEO of the Irvicon Group. At the same time, an analysis of law enforcement practice shows that the range of permissible activities already covers more than 40 areas, including digital services and local service. The data from the Federal Tax Service confirms that the most active expansion of the payer base is observed in the segment of personal and household services, where the share of the self-employed exceeds 35% of the total number of workers in these industries.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. No response has been received at the time of publication.
Small business and hiring: the self-employed instead of the state
The extension of the NAP regime and the increase in the income limit may affect hiring strategies in small businesses and microenterprises, but there are also legal risks of substitution of employment relations. The main limitation for replacing full-time employees with self-employed is not the size of the limit, but the requirements of the law and the risk of retraining the relationship into an employment relationship on the part of the Federal Tax Service and Rostrud, which is confirmed by the practice of tax expertise. If signs of dependence of the contractor on one customer are identified, according to the materials of the Federal Tax Service, businesses face additional personal income tax and fines of up to 100 thousand rubles. The share of microenterprises in the structure of small businesses, according to the Ministry of Labor, is about 78%, which makes this segment particularly sensitive to changes in employment regulation.
It is important to understand that small businesses and microenterprises do not automatically replace full-time employees with self-employed ones, emphasizes Mikhail Provision, founder of the Console platform. The main limitation here is not the size of the limit, but the legal requirements and the risk of retraining the relationship into an employment relationship. Therefore, raising the income threshold is more likely to expand opportunities for legal project employment and cooperation with external specialists, rather than lead to a massive refusal to hire. The labor market will continue to move towards hybrid models, when a person combines work in the state and the implementation of individual projects as self-employed. According to a study by Console, currently more than 21% of Russians are already combining their main job with part-time jobs or self-employment.
Stricter conditions for other forms of small business, in particular for sole proprietors under the simplified taxation system, may force some entrepreneurs to switch to self-employment, former Minister of Labor of the Russian Federation, Deputy of the State Duma Oksana Dmitrieva draws attention. In particular, it is planned to lower the revenue threshold for VAT exemption for sole proprietors under the simplified taxation system to 10 million rubles, which, according to her estimates, will affect about 400 thousand entrepreneurs. Thus, the increase in the number of NAP payers will be caused not by the liberalization of their own regime, but by changes in related tax systems.
The self-employment regime remains a kind of lifesaver for many citizens in the face of an increasing tax burden on small and medium-sized businesses, which, according to Vladimir Klimanov, director of the IPEI Regional Policy Center, referring to data from Opora Russia, has increased by an average of 12% over the past three years.
Taxes and social guarantees: who will benefit
At the same time, the issue of social guarantees for the self-employed remains controversial. Citizens applying the special NAP regime are not required to pay insurance premiums to the Social Fund, but they have the opportunity to voluntarily enter into insurance relations with the SFR. And starting from October 1, 2026, digital platform operators will have to provide preferences to performers in the amount of at least 2.9% of the paid income with voluntary pension insurance, Mikhail Parkhomenko recalls. This regulation is fixed by the relevant regulations. According to the Federal Tax Service, the total number of self-employed (NAP payers) at the end of 2025 was 15.4 million people.
If the number of citizens using this regime continues to grow after 2027, this will primarily mean a further withdrawal of income from the shadow economy, Mikhail Provision notes. The NAP regime has already proved its effectiveness: Russians get the opportunity to work legally, and the state receives additional tax revenues. Therefore, an increase in the number of self-employed will lead to an increase in tax collection rather than a decrease. At the same time, the probability of an increase in the tax rate is minimal. Additional fees may be more likely due to changes in social guarantees: sick leave, maternity payments, pension contributions, etc. According to calculations based on statistics from the Federal Tax Service, the income of the self-employed in 2025 exceeded 3 trillion rubles, and the amount of accrued tax amounted to about 136 billion rubles. For comparison, income tax revenues in 2025, according to a report by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, reached 5.2 trillion rubles.
Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute, notes a differentiated effect for the budget: if citizens who previously worked without registration come to the NAP, fees will increase, but if the increase is due to the transfer of employees from employment contracts to cooperation with the self-employed, budget revenues may decrease due to the exemption of customers from personal income tax and insurance premiums.
Self-employed in the regions: where the regime works better
The development of the NAP regime in the regions demonstrates heterogeneous dynamics: for example, in the Orel region, where the special regime has been in effect since July 2020, about 55 thousand self-employed people have been registered, and tax revenues for this period amounted to about 1 billion rubles, of which 629.3 million rubles went to the regional budget. Information technology, transportation, construction and finishing works have become priority areas in the region.
— The extension of the NAP regime until 2035 (in the Orel region. — Izvestia) It will help to legalize the work of citizens and increase the number of self—employed," Andrey Klychkov, Governor of the Orel region, told Izvestia.
According to the Federal Tax Service, in general, the largest concentration of self-employed people in Russia is observed in Moscow (2.1 million people), the Moscow region (1.3 million) and St. Petersburg (890 thousand). However, the growth rates in the regions of the Southern and North Caucasus Federal Districts are ahead of the national average.
For the subjects of the Russian Federation, the task of bringing actually existing business activities out of the shadows is now very urgent, especially in tourist and rural areas, where services are often provided for cash or card transfers, Irina Vishnevskaya points out. According to her observations, in places such as Suzdal, a significant part of the services for accommodation, rental and handicrafts are sold without the use of self-employment or sole proprietorship status. The level of shadow employment in certain regions of Russia, according to a RANEPA study, reaches 25-30% of the total number of employees, which creates the potential to expand the base of NPD payers.
The continuation of the experiment on professional income tax deserves support, especially in the context of the growing tax burden on small and medium-sized businesses, emphasizes Vladimir Klimanov. Indeed, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, by 2030 the share of the self-employed in the total employment structure may reach 18-20%, provided the current growth rates are maintained and the regime is further liberalized.
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