Neither war nor peace: what will the new exchanges of blows between Iran and the United States lead to?

Tensions are growing between Iran and the United States. Over the past 24 hours, the sides have exchanged local strikes several times, each of which could provoke a new war. At the same time, the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah escalated, which did not add stability to the Tehran—Washington negotiation process. Nevertheless, despite the weakening of contacts, the resumption of full-scale hostilities in the Middle East is still far away, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

Iran and the United States respond to the attacks in a mirror manner

A new round of confrontation began on the night of June 2. American troops attacked the M/T Lexie tanker sailing under the flag of Botswana to one of the Iranian ports. According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), the ship ignored the demands to change course and continued moving even after the threat of force, which caused it to be hit by an American missile. Iran reacted to the incident in a mirror way: the IRGC Navy struck the Panaya ship associated with the United States and Israel, damaging it.

Some time later, the United States attacked the IRGC communications tower south of Qeshm Island. In response, according to the Iranian side, missile and drone strikes were launched against US air bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

As Grigory Lukyanov, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences, researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with Izvestia, the choice of targets for Iran's "retaliation strike" was not accidental.

— Kuwait and Bahrain are the easiest places for Iran to reach. In addition, there is an infrastructure from which drones operating over Iranian territory were launched. And, apparently, that's where the special operations forces that these drones belong to are stationed. And who continue to conduct preparatory activities for conducting a limited operation on the territory of Iran," the expert noted.

Interestingly, Washington and Tehran consider the military actions taken to be "proportionate" responses to the attacks of the opponent. They shift responsibility for the violation of the truce onto each other, positioning their own steps as defensive. The general tone of the parties indicates that the exchange of blows was rather symbolic and did not provoke an increase in tension.

The conflict in Lebanon is developing according to its own scenario

In parallel with the changing situation in the Gulf, tensions are growing in Lebanon, where the Israeli army is opposing the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Despite periodic public "rebukes" from Washington, Israel continues its "creeping advance" in the conflict zone. Recently, the 84th Givati Infantry Brigade crossed the Litani River and occupied a number of settlements on the Beaufort Ridge, including the fortress of the same name on the commanding heights near the town of Nabatiya.

Israeli officials called the capture of Beaufort a "turning point" in the campaign against Hezbollah, with Defense Minister Yisrael Katz describing the fortress as one of the strategic points for defending the North.

However, despite the tactical successes, Israel cannot fully realize its existing potential due to the restrictions imposed under the ceasefire. In addition, he was forced to shut down operations at least several times under pressure from the White House. This includes abandoning a massive strike on the Shiite neighborhood of Dahiya in Beirut, where, according to intelligence reports, a meeting of the Hezbollah leadership was taking place. Otherwise, Iran threatened to permanently withdraw from the negotiations.

INF Program Manager Ivan Bocharov draws attention to the fact that for Tehran, the "Lebanese" issue, although of fundamental importance, is not considered the only trigger for retaliatory strikes.

—Tehran has already responded to the actions of the United States, for example, most recently, after American strikes on boats that, according to the United States, participated in mining the Strait of Hormuz, as well as missile installations in southern Iran," he said.

Israeli officials tend to simplify the conflict formula. They are trying to convince the White House that Tehran is using the Lebanese factor as a universal lever of pressure, while not seeking to find compromises. Moreover, under the cover of the truce, Hezbollah is rebuilding the infrastructure in the contact zone, which increases the effectiveness of its strikes on Israeli territory. However, the Trump administration prefers to take Iran's position into account so as not to complicate the already difficult settlement cooperation.

In addition, fears are growing in Israel that Hezbollah has been able to modernize its tactical fleet of UAVs by adopting fiber-optic FPV drones with an operational range of up to 60 km. The widespread use of these munitions will pose a threat not only to the border areas, but also to the entire north of Israel. Among other things, it will put at risk the naval base in Haifa, where, according to some information, there are naval carriers of nuclear warheads.

For this reason, Israeli security agencies are calling on Netanyahu's cabinet to deepen the "security zone" in southern Lebanon, even if this negatively affects US diplomatic initiatives. In this regard, political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev emphasizes that it is important for Israel to neutralize the threat posed by Hezbollah by any means, and therefore its operational needs will sooner or later prevail over its allied obligations.

"This issue is becoming important for Israel not only in the military-strategic, but also in the domestic political plane, especially in the light of the upcoming early elections and increasing discontent among the population regarding the actions of the authorities in the context of simultaneous conduct of several military operations," the expert noted.

At the same time, Israel has a unique window of opportunity to conduct operations under the pretext of a "proactive response" to the escalation. According to Ivan Bocharov, after several rounds of armed confrontation, Hezbollah has become more decentralized. This increases the likelihood that certain actions against Israel may be initiated by individual units or field commanders. As a result, a kind of chain reaction occurs, when each new episode increases the risk of further escalation.

The diplomatic track remains

Despite periodic outbreaks of tension, as well as Iran's repeatedly announced withdrawal from negotiations, interaction between Washington and Tehran has not stopped yet. Moreover, according to US President Donald Trump, "negotiations are continuing continuously," despite the recent incidents in the Gulf.

At the same time, judging by the accents of recent statements by American officials, the White House is still trying to reduce negotiations to consolidating the new status of the Iranian nuclear program. Other sensitive issues of Iranian-American relations — be it the lifting of sanctions against Tehran or the settlement of the status of the Strait of Hormuz — are placed on the periphery of the negotiations, and the parties hardly touch on them. Iran does not like this very much, which, on the contrary, is trying to include regional issues on the agenda.

Grigory Lukyanov believes that the space for interaction between Iran and the United States remains, but the negotiations themselves are balancing in a gray area, between war and peace.

"It can be a space of different windows of opportunity that will open and close like a kind of window or shutter, narrowing and expanding over a long period of time," he added.

To one degree or another, this is the stalemate that determines the inability of either side to achieve its goals without a real compromise and concessions that are necessary for negotiations, the expert concluded.

This situation may persist for a long time: despite the significant collateral costs of the conflict in the Middle East, Washington and Tehran have learned to find a balance and turn negative trends to their advantage.

However, even in this scenario, you will not be able to stay in the gray zone indefinitely.: The serious impact of the crisis on the global economy and the oil market is affecting the well-being of not only the United States and Iran, but also other global players. In the future, this may encourage external players to try to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table.