At its own risk: Europe buys 12 million tons of Russian LNG per year
The European Union is preparing to completely abandon Russian LNG starting from January 1, 2027. To do this, the countries of the association will have to replace about 12 million tons of fuel from the Russian Federation, which are currently being supplied under long-term contracts, the European analytical company Kpler told Izvestia. Substitution may prove problematic in the context of tensions in the global energy market: Europe will need to compete for free shipments with Asia. Experts believe that it is realistic to close Russian volumes with supplies from the Atlantic basin, primarily from the United States and partly from West Africa. But such a scheme can be more expensive due to the costs of liquefaction, shipping, insurance and regasification.
How Russian gas goes to Europe
Cooperation in the gas sector between the Russian Federation and the EU is entering its final phase. From January 1, 2027, European companies will have to stop importing Russian LNG under long-term contracts.
"At the moment, the vast majority of Russian LNG entering the EU is indeed linked to long—term contracts — about 12 million tons per year," Kpler, a European analytical company, told Izvestia.
It is these volumes that will become one of the main problems for Brussels after the ban comes into force. The paradox is that supplies from Russia to Europe do not decrease until complete failure, but grow. According to preliminary data from the global financial company LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), in January – May 2026, the Russian Federation exported 14.5 million tons of LNG to all foreign markets. Of this volume, 7.7 million tons accounted for Europe— which is 16.7% more than in the same period last year. The Yamal LNG project continues to provide the main volumes.
The EU began to limit short-term supplies first. Since April 25, 2026, the European Union has banned the import of Russian LNG under contracts for up to a year. Long—term - we have received a transition period until January 1, 2027. In fact, such contracts are the only channel through which LNG continues to enter the EU.
The buyers of Russian liquefied natural gas in Europe are primarily large energy companies. Among them are the French TotalEnergies, the German SEFE, the former Gazprom subsidiary, as well as the Spanish Naturgy, formerly Gas Natural Fenosa.
Physically, the goods go by sea. The gas is liquefied at the Yamal LNG plant in the Russian Arctic, after which it is transported by ice-class gas tankers to LNG terminals in France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands. There, LNG undergoes regasification, that is, it is converted back to a gaseous state, and enters the European gas transmission network.
At the same time, the contract buyer, the country of unloading and the end user do not always coincide. The company can be registered in one country, the cargo physically arrives at the terminal in another, and after regasification, the gas is consumed not only in the receiving country, but also goes further along the common network of the European Union.
Will the EU be able to replace LNG from Russia
The EU has almost abandoned Russian pipeline gas and replaced a significant part of the lost LNG volumes, primarily from the United States. According to the European Commission, the share of Russian pipeline gas in the union's imports decreased from 41% in 2021 to about 6% in 2025, while the United States provided almost 58% of the EU's LNG imports last year. This allowed Brussels to reduce its dependence on Russian pipelines, but made purchases more expensive.
Now the EU must abandon the remaining Russian LNG volumes. 12 million tons in gas equivalent is about 16-17 billion cubic meters. For comparison, all LNG imports to the EU in 2025 exceeded 140 billion cubic meters, so Russian long—term supplies account for about 12% of European purchases of liquefied natural gas.
The EU will have to replace Russian volumes in an already tense market, said Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy. According to him, Russian LNG supplies are now important for Europe precisely because there is a shortage not only in the liquefied natural gas market, but also in general.
— The LNG market can be represented as a system of communicating vessels. If there is not enough LNG, for example, in Asia, it will look for it in other directions. This leads to increased competition for the remaining volumes," the expert said.
According to him, in such a situation, the EU's refusal of Russian supplies looks risky: Brussels is counting on reduced demand, increased energy efficiency and a future oversupply. However, these plans were made in a different environment, and now political decisions may conflict with the energy reality.
"The EU will probably be able to replace Russian LNG with supplies from the Atlantic basin, mainly from the United States, where many new projects are being introduced this year and next, and to a lesser extent from West Africa," Kpler noted.
We can talk about supplies from Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, as well as new volumes from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project off the coast of Mauritania and Senegal. These shipments are convenient for Europe geographically, as they also belong to the Atlantic Basin, but they are not comparable in scale to the export capabilities of the United States.
The United States can indeed increase its role in LNG supplies to Europe, but their peculiarity is not only in volume, Frolov explained. According to him, American liquefied natural gas is often sold in a more flexible segment of the market: the supplier delivers the fuel at the port of departure, and then the buyer decides where to send the cargo.
— Such gas can be redirected between markets based on price signals. Simply put, where it is more expensive, they take it there," the expert said.
Because of this, Europe will have to compete for free parties with Asia. If gas is needed, the EU should offer a higher price; if it is not ready to pay, demand will decrease not according to plan, but because of the high cost of fuel.
The future of Russian LNG
Moscow will not necessarily wait for a complete European ban. Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted in March that it might be more profitable for Russia to stop gas supplies to Europe before the EU finally abandons our energy resources. He attributed this to the emergence of new markets for Russian gas, including in Asia, which remains the main destination for LNG in the world.
— About 70% of all liquefied natural gas in the world is sold in the Asia-Pacific region. China and Japan together import more LNG than the whole of Europe combined. Therefore, Russia will bring it to Asia: it is the largest and at the same time a growing market," Frolov said.
Kpler also believes that Russian LNG will not be "lost": it will be redirected to other markets, such as Turkey, Egypt and Asian countries.
At the same time, the European direction remains significant for Russia. Frolov estimates the EU's share in Russian LNG supplies at about 50%. At the same time, exports to Europe were convenient primarily because of the geographical proximity. A significant part of the gas from Yamal LNG was sent there, while Sakhalin went to Asia. During navigation along the Northern Sea Route, some of the cargo from Yamal could also be exported to Asian markets.
However, the full redirection of European volumes will not be automatic. The Asian route requires longer logistics, more tankers and consideration of price competition. According to Frolov's rough estimate, when leaving the European market, Russia will have to transfer about 8 billion cubic meters of gas per year to other areas.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
