Summer threats: what will happen to the build-up of nuclear potential in Europe

The nuclear non-proliferation system in Europe is rapidly collapsing. Paris is promoting its "umbrella": Norway joined its initiative at the end of May, and Sweden allowed the appearance of French nuclear carriers on its territory. Russia will take the necessary military and technical measures in the event of the republic's atomic weapons appearing near its borders, Russian Ambassador to Stockholm Sergey Belyaev told Izvestia. The expert community believes that Moscow may re-target its missile systems to Scandinavia and increase the grouping of forces in the north-western direction. According to media reports, Washington is also discussing the possibility of deploying its nuclear weapons in additional NATO countries, such as Poland and the Baltic States. At the same time, the launch of regular joint missions in Europe could negatively affect future negotiations on an agreement that could replace the START Treaty.

The threat of nuclear weapons in Scandinavia

France has moved to extend its "nuclear umbrella" to Scandinavia. At the end of May, Norway agreed to join the nuclear deterrence system of the Fifth Republic. Sweden had previously joined this initiative, with local experts reporting in May that Stockholm might ask Paris to host Rafale aircraft with nuclear weapons.

Back in March, France announced an increase in its own nuclear arsenal and offered cooperation to European countries — joint exercises, joint coordination and deployment of Rafale aircraft. Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden expressed interest in this project. Moreover, Warsaw and Paris are going to practice strikes on targets in Russia. At the same time, the French Embassy in Russia previously told Izvestia that Paris has no plans to transfer nuclear weapons and permanently deploy them on the territory of other countries.

Nevertheless, the potential appearance of French atomic weapons on the territory of states located in close proximity to the Russian borders is considered by Moscow as a factor having a negative impact on its security, Russian Ambassador to Sweden Sergey Belyaev told Izvestia. He specified that in the spring, a bilateral working group was established under the auspices of the Governments of France and Sweden, which is charged with dealing with issues of cooperation in the nuclear field.

"Of course, we will take all necessary measures, including military—technical measures, to stop any threats against us," the diplomat said.

Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, explained to Izvestia that we are talking about the possible use of the territory of the Scandinavian countries in the event of a conflict.

— Moreover, it may be more necessary even for France, rather than for these states, for the possible dispersal of carriers in order to reduce their vulnerability. Given the geography, the number of possible strike directions is increasing and the flight time is shortening," the expert said.

Previously, the Nordic countries were at the forefront of opponents of nuclear weapons, while Sweden and Finland were also non—aligned states. However, Helsinki joined NATO in 2023, and Stockholm joined the list of alliance members a year later. After that, the attitude of the countries of the region towards nuclear weapons changed. Finland is considering a law that would allow the possession of deadly weapons, and Denmark is also reviewing its policy in this area. The Norwegian and Swedish authorities now emphasize that they are against the appearance of atomic bombs on their territory precisely in "peacetime" conditions.

How will Russia respond to the nuclear threat from the north

In addition to deploying its nuclear launch vehicles, Paris is interested in receiving information from Oslo on the military activities of the Russian Armed Forces in high latitudes and its nuclear deterrent forces, the Russian Embassy in Norway told Izvestia. They also noted that this country plans to deploy strike weapons in its northern regions, including South Korean MLRS with a range of up to 500 km, which will be aimed at Russian facilities on the Kola Peninsula.

The potential deployment of nuclear weapons in the Scandinavian region would violate its nuclear-weapon-free status and could provoke Russia to adopt a reactive military-technical response, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

—The Russian Armed Forces can respond by retargeting Russian missile systems, deploying additional air defense and missile defense systems in the border area, as well as strengthening the grouping of troops in the north-western direction," Meloyan believes.

To strengthen the protection of this area, in 2024 Moscow recreated the Leningrad Military District, and the 44th Army Corps was deployed in Karelia.

A political response to Paris' actions in Northern Europe is also possible. In particular, the Russian Federation has an economic lever — the revision of agreements with Norway on fisheries. Last year, the head of Rosrybolovstvo, Ilya Shestakov, threatened to close the exclusive economic zone for Norwegian fishing vessels. Western media wrote at the time that Oslo was afraid of being left without cod in the event of this scenario. At the same time, Russia is interested in maintaining cooperation with Norway, including in Svalbard.

In addition, Moscow may strengthen the security of vulnerable facilities, as well as consider their possible relocation to the east. It is also important to increase the potential for strikes on the territory of the Nordic countries and conduct an active media campaign to remind countries that have provided their territory for the deployment of nuclear weapons of the risks, Stefanovic stressed.

Which European countries will host nuclear weapons

Most European capitals view the presence of the French "nuclear umbrella" as insurance against Donald Trump, whose actions and statements have led European allies to question the United States' commitment to defending Europe.

— We must assume that in the short and medium term, the number of countries on the eastern flank of NATO included in the French program will increase, and Romania may be the next candidate here, — said Tigran Meloyan.

Earlier, Izvestia wrote about Paris' pressure on Bucharest to join the new initiative. Romania's inclusion in it allows France to build a cross-cutting axis of deterrence from Scandinavia to the Balkans; in addition, Ukraine is located nearby. Due to the recent news about the downing of an unknown UAV in Romania, France may have an additional argument in negotiations with the leadership in Bucharest.

However, the United States is also not losing interest in its nuclear weapons in Europe. Washington currently holds about 100 B61 atomic bombs in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. In case of war, these bombs can be installed on the aircraft of the country in which they are stored. According to some reports, an upgraded version of the B61 bombs could have been delivered to the Lakenheath military base in Britain.

The United States is also discussing the possibility of transporting atomic weapons to additional European NATO countries. According to the Financial Times, citing sources, a number of Baltic countries and NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, are interested in the proposal to deploy aircraft capable of launching nuclear strikes.

Russia advocates curtailing NATO's joint nuclear missions and modernizing its own strike arsenal. At the same time, Moscow is ready for dialogue and last year offered Washington to extend compliance with the basic parameters of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START Treaty) for a year. However, the United States actually abandoned this initiative, although in general they did not reject the possibility of contacts on this topic. And the threat of nuclear weapons from the United States and France in other European countries clearly will not contribute to the conclusion of a new agreement.