Areas of fusion: the strengthening of the IRGC in Iran is changing the positions of negotiators

The IRGC has become the main force in Iran: radical elements almost single-handedly build its policy. President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose statements almost never get into the information field, has already allegedly resigned. Meanwhile, due to Israel's actions in Lebanon, Iran has already decided to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and suspend any communication with the United States, the agencies report. Trump did not immediately take retaliatory measures: there will be no new bombings yet. The total uncertainty in the Middle East is reflected in world markets: oil prices are rising again. Whether there are still chances to conclude an agreement is in the Izvestia article.

The negotiation process between Iran and the United States

While the countries directly or indirectly involved in the Middle East conflict are trying to move closer to a settlement, the political environment is rapidly changing. The strengthening of the IRGC's position, the expansion of Israeli operations in Lebanon and the possibility of new attacks on Tehran call into question the willingness of the Iranian leadership to make concessions even if the negotiating channel is maintained.

Just last weekend, the United States and Iran exchanged proposals for amendments to the draft treaty, and then strikes. The American armed forces attacked radars and drone control points in Goruk and on the island of Qeshm. The IRGC hit a US air base from which the US military was hitting a telecommunications tower on Sirik Island, and warned Washington of a more powerful response in case of a repeat escalation. At the same time, Israel intensified its offensive towards Lebanon. On June 1, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he would resume attacks on Hezbollah targets in Beirut. The IDF will continue its operation in the south of the country. This is despite the fact that a new round of Lebanese-Israeli talks is about to take place in Washington on June 2 and 3. However, Donald Trump seems to have managed to influence his younger ally. In the evening, the US president announced that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to cease fire.

It is important to note that, in addition to establishing a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, Tehran insists on extending these conditions to Israel's actions in Lebanon.

"The ceasefire between Iran and the United States applies unconditionally to all war zones, including Lebanon. Its violation on any of the fronts means a violation of the ceasefire regime as a whole," said the head of the department, Abbas Araqchi.

And it wasn't a bluff. By the evening of June 1, due to the intensification of hostilities in Lebanon, Iran decided to suspend any communication with the United States and to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, for the opening of which the entire world economy has been "praying" for the last weeks. To everyone's surprise, Trump decided not to resort to retaliatory measures, saying he would not resume bombing Iran.

Such a drastic step on the part of Iran is not least related to fundamental changes in the structure of power. The IRGC, as an elite military structure, has always had significant influence, but now it seems to have literally usurped power. The day before, it became known that Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian sent an official letter to the office of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei requesting his resignation. In his opinion, the government has been effectively removed from key decision-making, and a significant part of the government has come under the control of individual groups in the IRGC.

— Negotiations with the United States of America are conducted primarily by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The head of the Iranian negotiating group, Ghalibaf (Speaker of the Parliament. He is a native of the IRGC, and the new spiritual leader, Mojtab Khamenei, has always had very close relations with the corps. Therefore, if negotiations are underway, it means that the generals are in favor of continuing negotiations," INF expert and international political scientist Elena Suponina told Izvestia.

The United States had hoped to deal with more flexible Iranian politicians, but now it is faced with a tough stance from the IRGC, she notes. However, it was Washington's actions that contributed to the new balance of power in Tehran. The assassination of the most respected leader Ali Khamenei triggered tectonic shifts in the Iranian leadership.

Will the US-Iran talks continue and how will the economy react?

The exchanges of strikes between Iran, the United States and Israel are alarming global energy markets. After the news of new attacks in the Middle East, oil prices rose markedly on June 1.

Markets are now reacting not so much to the very fact of negotiations between the United States and Iran, as to the uncertainty of their outcome, said Kirill Seleznev, an expert on the Garda Capital stock market. Until the agreement is signed, there remains a noticeable geopolitical premium in oil prices. If even an interim memorandum appears, the commodity market will immediately react with a noticeable decline, he added.

Earlier, Brent quotes fell on expectations of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the extension of the truce. Now raw materials have risen in price again by more than 2-3% and are trading near $ 95 per barrel. At the same time, Russian Urals crude remains cheaper, at about $84 per barrel.

According to Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, the acute phase may last up to two weeks — until mid-June. At the same time, a full-fledged peace deal should not be expected quickly, because the dispute is not only about a cease-fire, but also around a whole set of complex issues: sanctions against Iran, shipping through Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program and frozen oil revenues.

— It is beneficial for both sides to stop the escalation. The United States needs to reduce pressure on oil and gasoline prices, and Iran needs to ease the blockade and at least partial access to export earnings. But the risks of a breakdown remain high, because the parties continue to exchange blows and accuse each other of violating the truce," Vladimir Chernov added.

On the one hand, the United States and Iran still remain interested in reducing tensions. According to Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the current situation is controlled and has a limited scale of hostilities. Trump refused to immediately resume bombing, probably because the US leadership is betting on the "suffocating" effect of sanctions and the economic blockade of Iran.

— Under these conditions, the settlement process may be frozen, but this does not negate the possibility of returning to the negotiation format. Because they have become possible precisely because neither side can achieve its goals solely by military means. And the situation has not changed in principle now," he told Izvestia.

Lukyanov believes that the IRGC leadership is in favor of continuing the dialogue, but not on terms of surrender in the face of the obviously impossible demands of the United States. In addition, the negotiation process will continue one way or another, because at the moment both sides recognize the need to conclude a deal.

It is interesting to turn to the platforms of the forecast markets. Polymarket estimates the probability of a further ceasefire or truce before June 3 at only 6%, before June 7 at 20%, and before June 30 at 60%. The market does not believe in a quick peace deal, but admits that by the end of June the parties will arrange at least a temporary pause, said Vladimir Chernov.

At the same time, the dynamics can change dramatically literally from a single statement by Donald Trump or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. At the same time, a permanent peace agreement is expected by the end of 2026 with a probability of as much as 71%. Such a discrepancy can be interpreted as a signal that the market is planning protracted, difficult negotiations in the future price, explained Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the investment company Rikom-Trust.

The key paradox is that even a hypothetical cessation of strikes by the United States and Israel does not guarantee a return to the negotiating table, since radical elements in the IRGC have already gained enough political weight to demand unilateral concessions from the Americans — first of all, the lifting of sanctions in exchange for any dialogue. This turns the IRGC into a structural brake, making a full-scale deal unlikely as long as external military pressure persists or even increases.