Sales house: shares of the largest developers have fallen in price by almost a third in a year

The securities of the largest Russian developers have sharply fallen in price over the year. The share price of individual market players fell by more than 50-60%, with an average decline of up to a third, Izvestia found. The deteriorating stock market situation reflects the problems of the entire industry amid slowing home sales and a high debt burden. At the same time, financial problems lead to real difficulties for clients of developers, because the deadlines for the completion of facilities are now shifting more and more often. Why the shares of players in this market are getting cheaper, while housing continues to rise in price — in the Izvestia article.

Why developer stocks keep getting cheaper

Shares of the four largest Russian developers whose securities are traded on the stock exchange have fallen by an average of 34% over the past 12 months, according to data from TradingView on June 1, which was studied by Izvestia. The quotes of the PEAK group increased by about 1%. At the same time, the securities of two out of four companies lost more than half of their market value in a year. Shares of Aeroplane fell by 66%, Etalon — by 55%, and LSR Group — by 16%.

The main losses occurred in 2026. Since the beginning of January, the value of Etalon shares has decreased by 37%, and Aeroplane by 59%. LSR's quotes remained relatively stable, with shares of PIK rising by almost 14%. On average, the sector's securities have declined by about 20% over the past six months. Izvestia sent a request to the listed companies.

At the same time, the Moscow Exchange index has fallen by only 9% over the past year, and by 6% since the beginning of 2026, according to data from its website. That is, the shares of developers as a whole have fallen in price more than the market.

In the years 2025-2026, increased instability was observed in the securities of developers against the background of investors' expectations that the housing market was nearing the end of the recession and would soon begin to recover, explained Natalia Pyrieva, head of the analytical department at Cifra Broker. However, many positive expectations were not fulfilled, so the quotes were mostly under pressure.

— According to our estimates, representatives of the construction sector are in a difficult situation today, but so far it cannot be called a crisis, — Natalia Pyrieva emphasized.

The main factor in the decline in quotations was weak housing sales in the first months of the year, said Artem Perminov, senior analyst at BCS World Investments. The exception was January, when buyers sought to complete transactions before the new restrictions on family mortgages came into force.

The conditions of the program have really become tougher since the beginning of 2026, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, recalled. The loan was issued not for one spouse, but for a family at once.

A slowdown in demand after the rule change was expected, but the actual decline in sales turned out to be stronger than expected, explained Artem Perminov. Transactions involving the use of a second family mortgage could generate up to 10% of the total demand for housing. However, sales in a number of projects decreased by 20-30%.

Many developers are forced to rethink their development strategies and refocus on commercial and individual real estate, where demand is often more stable, added Nikita Bakhcheev, Managing Partner of Promplan Group.

Nevertheless, by the end of 2025, housing prices in Russia rose by an average of 9%, which is one and a half times higher than official inflation, Natalia Milchakova concluded. This in itself narrows down the number of potential clients of developers, although many of them selectively give discounts on individual apartments.

How has the profit of developers changed over the year?

The financial results of the largest developers also turned out to be heterogeneous, Natalia Milchakova noted. Thus, Aeroplane and Etalon completed 2025 with net losses. In both cases, the result was affected by one-time write-offs for individual projects, as well as increased loan servicing costs due to high interest rates.

At the same time, PIK was able to increase profits due to cost optimization and a review of the debt structure, the expert emphasized. The LSR Group also maintained a positive financial result, although its figure for the year decreased by about 62%.

Some developers have accumulated significant debts, said Kristina Gudym, an analyst at FG Finam. For example, the volume of obligations of the Aeroplane Group remains noticeably higher than that of most major competitors. This makes the company more vulnerable to declining home sales, rising costs, and high rates.

Against the background of declining demand, developers may delay the launch of new projects and revise development plans. The fewer apartments are sold, the slower the escrow accounts of buyers are replenished. As a result, credit institutions may increase the cost of loans for developers or impose stricter requirements on them, which only exacerbates the situation.

A separate pressure on the Airplane's papers was exerted by the story of the request for state support, Kristina Gudym added. In January, the company sent an appeal to the government asking for assistance in the amount of 50 billion rubles. Support was eventually denied, which negatively affected investor sentiment.

What's going on with the housing market

The problems of construction companies are gradually beginning to affect the housing market itself. According to the Unified Resource of Developers, the five largest developers are currently constructing more than 2.4 million square meters in violation of deadlines. This is already over 15% of the total construction volume of these companies. The most difficult situation is observed at the Aeroplane group, where about a third of all areas are being built with delays.

Financial difficulties can lead to a postponement of the commissioning of facilities, a reduction in the number of new projects and the sale of land to other market players, said Natalia Pyrieva from Digital Broker.

In addition, pressure on companies' budgets may affect the quality of construction, Igor Rastorguev believes. To reduce costs, individual developers are forced to save on materials, contractors, and technical solutions. According to Urban Grade research, 93% of buyers of mass-market apartments recorded various construction defects.

The general slowdown in construction activity is exacerbating the situation. According to Rosstat, in January–February 2026, housing starts decreased by 31% compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, the costs of building materials, logistics, and labor continue to rise. High rates increase the cost of debt servicing. According to the CMACP, construction companies are already allocating about 37% of profits to interest payments, which is a record figure.

At the same time, the volume of supply remains high, Igor Rastorguev added. At the beginning of 2026, the sale rate of housing in new buildings was only 32%. There is already an oversupply in a number of regions — new apartments are simply not being bought.

Is it worth waiting for the growth of developers' shares

So far, the shares of developers remain among the most risky, Natalia Pyrieva warned. More confident conclusions about the prospects of the sector will be possible after the publication of the financial statements for the first half of 2026.

The main risk in the coming months is the continuation of high rates with weak housing sales, added the "Digital Broker". This combination will continue to put pressure on the profitability of companies and may lead to a further deterioration in financial performance.

Nevertheless, individual organizations look more stable than their competitors. Since the beginning of the year, LSR shares have remained virtually unchanged in price, despite the difficult situation in the industry, Natalia Milchakova said. The company remains profitable and continues to pay dividends. If the market situation improves, it is this group that can benefit the most from this.

However, in general, experts do not yet expect a rapid recovery in the sector. High rates and weak demand continue to put pressure on both home sales and company profits. Therefore, investments in developer stocks remain a bet on long-term market recovery, rather than on a rapid increase in quotations.