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- Beyond the possible: passenger traffic on foreign air routes falls for the second month in a row
Beyond the possible: passenger traffic on foreign air routes falls for the second month in a row
The reduction in the international passenger traffic of Russian airlines began in March — compared to the same month in 2025, it amounted to 0.7% of people, accelerated to 3.1% by April, according to the materials of the Federal Air Transport Agency. This was influenced by the Middle East crisis, the shortage of transportation capacity and the general economic situation. The situation may be improved by the redistribution of passenger traffic to other destinations, and in the long term, import substitution in the aviation industry.
How much has international passenger traffic dropped
The growth of air traffic, which was observed at the beginning of the year, was replaced by a recession in the spring. As follows from the materials of the Federal Air Transport Agency, reviewed by Izvestia, in March, the international passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, to 2.037 million people, and in April the decline accelerated to 3.1% — the figure was 2.08 million. For comparison, in January and February, the volume of foreign shipments, on the contrary, increased by 9.1% and 2%, respectively.
Negative dynamics was also observed on the internal lines. In March, airlines transported 5.73 million passengers across Russia, which is 3.1% less than in 2025, and in April — 6.13 million people, which is 2.5% lower than last year's level. The decrease was also recorded in the first months of the year.
According to the agency, the most noticeable reduction in international traffic was recorded at Red Wings: by 48.7% in March and by 41.4% in April. In the first month of spring, Ural Airlines decreased by 8.7%, S7 Airlines — by 2.7%, Azur Air — by 10.4%, and their decline intensified in April. Pobeda's index decreased by 17.7%, but in April it grew by 2.7%. In March, only Aeroflot was able to increase foreign air transportation, with an increase of 14.5%.
The press service of this airline reported that in January – April, the airline transported 8.9 million people, which is 2.4% more than in the same period last year. The international traffic increased by 15.6% and reached 3.4 million people. In general, the volume of traffic for the Aeroflot group increased by 1.8% to 16.3 million passengers, while on foreign flights the figure rose by 8.8% to 4.4 million people, the company said.
"We observed a slight decline in international passenger traffic in March, due to the situation in the Middle East," the S7 press service said. "But at the same time, the flow recovered in April and even showed an increase compared to the same month last year.
Positive dynamics is also expected in May. The most popular destinations this month were Xi'an, Bangkok, Shanghai, Istanbul and Beijing, the airline said. In general, since the beginning of 2026, passenger traffic on foreign lines has remained at or above the level of last year's figures, the carrier's press service noted.
Why are there fewer flights?
Currently, the share of international traffic in the total passenger traffic of Russian airlines is about 25%. This is due to the closure of a number of previously sought-after destinations due to sanctions, primarily from EU countries, Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviport agency, recalled. According to him, the strengthening of the ruble contributes to the growth of the flow abroad from 2025, which makes such a holiday more attractive in terms of price and quality against the background of rising prices at Russian resorts.
— However, this situation cannot continue indefinitely. In the near future, Russians will continue to choose Turkey and Thailand, voting for these destinations in rubles, the expert believes.
In March and April, the military crisis in the Persian Gulf began to negatively affect the dynamics, as the UAE and Israel are among the areas in demand. Egypt was also indirectly affected by the crisis, as flights there became more difficult from the point of view of logistics. At the same time, the demand for flights to Southeast Asia limits the growth of airline fuel costs, he noted.
The impact of the Middle East conflict is indeed present, but it is relatively small, says Fyodor Borisov, chief expert at the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to him, flights to a number of countries in the region, in particular to the UAE and Israel, were temporarily suspended, but even after their resumption, the situation around flights remains unstable. Among the main reasons for the reduction in passenger traffic, the expert named the limited carrying capacity of Russian airlines (that is, a decrease in the ability of airlines to transport passengers) and macroeconomic factors.
Andrey Patrakov, the founder of the RunAvia flight safety service, attributes the current situation to a shortage of carrying capacity, which is increasing amid a reduction in the available fleet. According to him, deliveries of new aircraft remain minimal. The Middle East crisis has had an impact on the situation: this region has traditionally been one of the largest international markets for Russian airlines, the expert believes.
Earlier, in a letter to the Ministry of Economic Development, VEB's chief economist.Andrey Klepach's Russian Federation stated that by 2030, the share of domestic-made aircraft could be only 30% instead of the planned 50%.
Will there be enough planes for the domestic aviation industry
Oleg Panteleev believes that under the conditions of sanctions, the industry has "accomplished the impossible" by keeping the bulk of the aircraft fleet on the wing.
"In theory, the reorientation of the fleet to domestic routes would increase the number of passengers served: the fact is that domestic routes are shorter than international ones," he stressed. — With the same fleet, airlines are able to operate more flights and carry more passengers.
The expert believes that in the near future, the industry will be in a comfortable environment amid record passenger seat occupancy and a moderate increase in jet fuel prices on the domestic market. Even in the absence of restoring the previous volume of flights to the Middle East, airlines, according to him, will be able to redistribute the fleet between destinations.
In the medium term, the supply of new domestic aircraft should compensate for the retirement of aircraft.
— A change in statistics, especially by only a few percent, gives no reason to worry, — Oleg Panteleev emphasized.
In turn, Andrey Patrakov, the founder of the RunAvia flight safety service, believes that in conditions of a shortage of carrying capacity, a decrease in passenger traffic looks logical. According to him, reducing the intensity of aircraft operation can lead to an increase in the unit cost of flights and an increase in costs, which are eventually included in tariffs.
Fyodor Borisov considers it premature to draw conclusions about the long-term consequences of the current dynamics. According to him, it is difficult to compensate for the possible loss of income in the short term, but the industry retains a margin of safety, including through government support measures.
In general, the situation in the aviation industry, according to market participants, does not look critical. On June 1, Aeroflot resumed regular flights from Moscow to Dubai; all economy and comfort class tickets were sold out.
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