- Статьи
- Economy
- The flight is normal: stopping the export of jet fuel will insure the Russian Federation against a price spike
The flight is normal: stopping the export of jet fuel will insure the Russian Federation against a price spike
The ban on jet fuel exports, introduced for the first time by the government, will allow the market to avoid unplanned fuel price spikes. The embargo will remain in effect until the end of November. As noted in the Cabinet, the purpose of the decision is to ensure a stable situation in the domestic market. Experts believe that this will bring an additional 2 million tons of fuel, but will not lead to a reduction in the cost of air tickets. At the same time, the measure will cool wholesale prices on the stock exchange and airlines will be able to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal jump, which means that tickets will not become more expensive at a faster pace.
Temporary ban on the export of jet fuel
For the first time, the government imposed a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene, which will be in effect until November 30, 2026. The purpose of the decision is to ensure a stable situation in the domestic fuel market, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers reported.
"The government continues to work to maintain reliable and uninterrupted supply of fuel to the domestic market. The new decree introduced a temporary ban on the export of fuel for jet engines from Russia, including those purchased at stock auctions. The restriction will be in effect until November 30, 2026 inclusive," the message says.
The exceptions will be shipments of jet fuel placed under customs procedures before the decree came into force, supplies under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in process tanks used by aircraft en route, the cabinet noted.
Currently, Russia also has a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants until July 31, 2026. Restrictions on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel and other types of gas oil remain in place for non-producers until the same date.
There is no official data on the volume of jet fuel production and consumption in the Russian Federation. Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to the EIA Energy Information Administration, the volume of the Russian jet fuel market, by the end of 2024, was 10.01 million tons per year with production of 11.6 million tons. The excess fuel was exported abroad.
According to the head of the Ministry of Transport Andrey Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of jet fuel in Russia.
— At the moment there is no shortage. In any case, in any situation, we proceed from the interests of our airlines," he said.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia are traditionally consumers of Russian-made jet fuel.
— Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually narrowing amid growing demand in the domestic market. So, in April 2026, there were no deliveries of jet fuel by sea," she noted.
Earlier, the media reported that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed to work on a number of other issues to stabilize the domestic fuel market. In particular, to hold consultations with Belarus to increase gasoline supplies to Russia, as well as to discuss the possibility of increasing payments for import dampers, including for Belarusian fuel, with the introduction of appropriate amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation retroactively — from June 1, 2026.
However, Izvestia's source in the industry could not confirm this information. According to him, Minsk is currently supplying fuel to the Russian market, which it produces from Russian oil.
"Moreover, Russia pays a dampener to Belarusian manufacturers," the source noted.
Another Izvestia source in the industry believes that if we are talking about an increase in damping payments, then the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to do this.
"Last month, 207 billion rubles were paid for the fuel damper, compared to 15 billion that the oil companies paid in March," he said.
The fuel damper is a special government mechanism created to stabilize gasoline and diesel prices within the Russian Federation. If global prices for black gold rise, the government compensates oil companies for part of the difference between the planned fuel price and the actual price, so that they do not increase its cost within Russia. If export prices are low, companies transfer part of the profits to the budget.
According to the National Stock Exchange Pricing Agency, 17.34 thousand tons of gasoline from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange in Russia from May 1 to May 22. This is 58 times more than in the same period of 2025.
Two Belarusian refineries, Mozyrsky and Novopolotsky, produce 3-3.5 million tons of gasoline per year, and domestic consumption is up to 1.2 million tons per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces more than 40 million tons per year, while consumption is about 38-39 million tons per year.
Why did the Cabinet of Ministers ban the export of jet fuel
Last week, as Izvestia wrote, citing industry sources, the government discussed the introduction of a ban on the export of both diesel and aviation fuel. This issue, according to the interlocutors of the editorial office, was raised at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the background of the growing Middle East conflict, demand and competition for Russian energy resources have increased dramatically, experts noted. They called such a measure as a ban on fuel exports very relevant in connection with the general situation on the global oil market, since as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, the oil products market is becoming extremely attractive and profitable, and Russian oil companies are also tempted to increase their fuel supplies to foreign markets.
"In order to avoid this temptation, the government imposes an embargo, or at least considers such a possibility," said Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government.
At the same time, experts were inclined to believe that if an export ban was imposed, it would be on jet fuel, since diesel fuel production in Russia is more abundant.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces about 80 million tons of diesel per year and consumes only half of this volume. As for jet fuel, about 11-12 million tons of it are produced, and about 10 million are consumed.
— Thus, the market will receive about 2 million tons of additional volumes of jet fuel, — Ekaterina Kosareva emphasized.
According to open source data, 2 million tons of jet fuel is enough for 18-26 thousand full refueling of long—haul or 66-133 thousand refueling of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Every day in Russia, civil aviation performs from 2.1 to 2.3 thousand flights per day, that is, this volume is enough for about two to three months of flights for the whole country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviport industry agency, if we consider 2 million tons as a volume that cannot be exported due to the ban, this does not automatically mean an increase in its consumption in the domestic market.
— According to the statements of the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, fuel shortages are not expected, however, there is no reason to predict a significant increase in domestic traffic by the end of the year. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that much more fuel will be needed," he said.
Nevertheless, the availability of reserves is a factor of strategic sustainability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tons takes into account the circumstances according to which fuel supplies to the foreign market can continue within the framework of intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, believes that systematic work is needed, including taking into account the damping mechanisms for airlines.
— First of all, stocks should be created, and secondly, price risks should be hedged in order to avoid questions about a potential shortage of kerosene in certain periods. In this context, the closure of aviation fuel exports is a preventive measure aimed at saturating the domestic market," the expert noted.
However, he believes that, in general, economic entities are expected to be more independent — they should understand that in order to increase jet fuel consumption, it is necessary to make purchases in advance and hedge risks without shifting these tasks to the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years there has been a surplus of jet kerosene in Russia, that is, more was produced (about 11.6 million tons per year) than was consumed domestically (about 8.5–9 million tons).
— At the same time, consumption is characterized by high unevenness — it increases in June-August, during the summer holidays. Accordingly, 2-2.5 million tons per year were exported. The main supply routes were the countries of Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, as well as Turkey, the countries of the Middle East and Asia," the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to all major oil companies and air carriers of the Russian Federation.
What impact will the Cabinet's decision have on the market?
According to the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, the cost of aviation fuel at over—the-counter auctions has increased by 7.14% since the beginning of May, from 78,991 rubles per 1 ton on May 1 to 84,634 rubles on May 31. At the same time, as of May 25, 1 ton of jet fuel cost 96,776 rubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the excise tax on jet fuel has remained unchanged for almost 10 years: since 2017, the rate of 2,800 rubles per 1 ton has been in effect. For comparison, the excise tax on Class 5 gasoline increased from 10,130 rubles per 1 ton in 2017 to 17,959 rubles per 1 ton in 2026, and the excise tax on diesel fuel increased from 6,800 rubles to 12,738 rubles, respectively.
— The presence of a fixed excise tax should have a stabilizing effect on the cost of jet fuel. However, in practice, exchange prices have increased from 80 thousand rubles to almost 100 thousand rubles per 1 ton over the past two months. The export ban may slow down the increase in value, but prices will not return to previous levels soon," the expert stressed.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure the risks of a shortage of jet fuel in the country. The refusal to export will create reserves for the peak of summer navigation, the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
An editorial source in the industry said that currently the share of fuel in the price of an air ticket is not fixed, "it varies greatly depending on the price of kerosene."
According to him, it is "approximately 25-30% of the ticket price, but it may be lower with falling prices and higher with a sharp increase."
- As for ticket prices, the embargo on the export of jet fuel will not lead to cheaper prices. After all, other factors are putting pressure on their cost: the rise in the cost of aircraft maintenance and repair under sanctions, the shortage of spare parts and general inflation. But at the same time, the embargo will avoid their sharp rise in price, which could occur in the event of an acute shortage of kerosene in the domestic market," said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban is likely to cool wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and airlines will be able to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal jump in cost. This means that tickets will not become more expensive at a faster pace. At the same time, domestic consumption will not grow in physical volumes, but the market will be guaranteed to be insured against shortages.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
