What will change for Armenia in case of withdrawal from the EAEU? Analysis
Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union may cripple the country's economy: the loss of benefits and preferences of the EAEU can affect trade, energy and investment, which today are largely linked to Russia. European programs offer new opportunities for development, but their results are still a long-term prospect. What the Armenian economy may lose and how guaranteed the promises of the European Union are — in the Izvestia article.
Loss of special conditions
• It is almost impossible to combine Armenia's participation in the EAEU and its accession to the European Union. If European integration is chosen, the existing economic mechanisms of cooperation within the EAEU will be largely discontinued. At the same time, the right of Yerevan to independently determine the foreign economic policy remains with the republic itself.
• Among the advantages of EAEU membership for Armenia are duty-free trade, common technical and phytosanitary standards, access to a common market and more convenient logistics. Preferential energy prices also play a significant role: the cost of gas for Armenia is just over €150 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared to about €600 in European countries. However, Russia may review or terminate the 2013 agreement on natural gas supplies.
• The volume of accumulated investments in the Armenian economy has reached $4.9 billion, with 86% of this amount secured by Russian capital. For comparison, the EU has declared its readiness to invest €2.5 billion.
• Membership in the European Union will entail for Yerevan the cancellation of existing free trade agreements with the EAEU: customs checks and duties will return, and the Russian side will cease to automatically recognize Armenian documents in the field of technical regulation and phytosanitary control. Armenian citizens will also have to apply for patents to work, and they will have access to compulsory medical insurance only after five years. A permit regime for Armenian airlines may also be introduced, and rail fares will rise to the CIS level. In this case, Armenia's economic losses may amount to about 14% of GDP.
• Armenia's participation in the EAEU has helped the country achieve significant economic results. Since 2014, the republic's GDP has almost doubled, from $11.6 billion to $20.2 billion. Real wages increased by 50%, exports to the EAEU countries increased 10 times, and imports from the Union countries increased 4.5 times. By the end of 2025, the Union states, primarily Russia, accounted for 38.5% of Armenian exports and 37.5% of the republic's total foreign trade turnover.
• In 2023-2025, the cumulative growth of the EAEU economy reached 11.4%, while the same indicator for the European Union was about 3%. These data are used as one of the arguments in favor of maintaining participation in the Eurasian integration.
• It is important for Armenia to maintain cooperation with Russia, as many sectors of the economy are closely linked to the Russian market. The severance or deterioration of these ties can create problems for trade, business, energy, and employment. The transition to new economic rules requires time and significant costs, and the result is not guaranteed.
Blurred perspectives
• The rapprochement between Yerevan and Brussels has been going on since 2024, when the Armenian authorities announced a course towards joining the EU. In April 2025, this intention was fixed by a special law. The CEPA agreement, which has been in force since 2021, remains the basis for cooperation between the parties. Additionally, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a declaration on strategic partnership. Earlier, in January 2025, Armenia signed a similar agreement with the United States.
• On May 5, Yerevan hosted major European events: the summit of the European Political Community, the first Armenia–EU summit, and the visit of Emmanuel Macron. The meetings took place about a month before the parliamentary elections in Armenia (to be held on June 7), where 19 political forces showed up to participate. Prime Minister Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is currently gaining about 26%, the Strong Armenia bloc — 14.1%, and the Armenia bloc - 8.2%.
• Brussels has confirmed its readiness to finance reforms in Armenia. The European Sustainability and Growth Plan for Armenia for 2024-2027 has become part of a broader EU strategy to consolidate economic and political influence in the South Caucasus. The program's budget is €270 million. Of these, the European Union allocates €200 million in grants, and uses another €70 million to attract additional investments through European financial institutions. Brussels allocates funds for the reform of public administration, the adaptation of Armenian legislation to EU standards.
• The Global Portal program operates in parallel: it considers Armenia as part of a transport route between Europe, the Black Sea, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The European Union estimates the total investment volume at more than €2.5 billion. This package, in particular, includes projects for the construction of roads, modernization of power grids and support for technology companies. One of the key projects remains the Black Sea Energy Cable, which is supposed to connect the energy systems of the South Caucasus and Europe. The EU is also financing the Sustainable Syunik program (about €200 million) until 2028: Brussels considers the Syunik region as a strategic region for new economic routes.
• For Armenia, such programs open up access to European money and technology, but at the same time they increase the risks to relations with Russia, which remains the country's main trading partner, the largest investor and supplier of energy resources. In 2025, Armenia received about 82% of its gas from Russia. Moscow has already warned Yerevan about a possible revision of preferential terms for the supply of gas, petroleum products and diamonds in further progress towards EU membership.
• In recent weeks, Moscow has imposed restrictions on the supply of certain Armenian goods, including some agricultural products, and also reminded of the possibility of returning customs barriers (we wrote more about the disputes between Russia and Armenia here). This creates a serious risk for the Armenian economy, since a significant part of exports go to the Russian market, and many enterprises operate through preferential access to the EAEU space.
• An additional burden is created by a possible increase in energy prices, increased logistical costs and the need for a large-scale restructuring of production standards to meet EU requirements. Economists also pay attention to the structure of European programs: a significant part of the announced €2.5 billion represents expected investments and credit mechanisms, rather than direct irrevocable payments. Therefore, Armenia gets the prospect of modernizing its economy, but at the same time it faces the threat of a shrinking Russian market, increasing external dependence on Western financing and increasing geopolitical pressure between the EU, Russia and the United States.
• The leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan at the EAEU forum in Astana stated the risks to the economic security of the union due to Armenia's policy of rapprochement with the EU. Yerevan was recommended to hold a national referendum as soon as possible and determine the way forward: joining the EU or remaining a member of the EAEU. Consideration of the report on the possible suspension of the EAEU treaty for Armenia was postponed to December 2026.
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