Communication interruption: why the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev remains on pause

At the end of Vladimir Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, a long-awaited press conference was literally held — the journalists were "off to a low start" for several hours. However, despite the obvious questions about Armenia's fate in the EAEU and Moscow's relations with Astana, the topic of negotiations with Ukraine still worried the press the most. Today they have been put on pause, but the Russian Armed Forces are successfully advancing, so we can expect an early end to their military operations, the president said. Experts believe that negotiations will resume in the autumn, after the summer changes on the front. There is a possibility that Europe will join the diplomatic process. Who can be a negotiator from the EU is in the Izvestia article.

Should we wait for the resumption of negotiations on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin's press conference following his visit to Kazakhstan took place on the last day after the main event, the EAEU summit. The journalists had been waiting for her for almost several hours: during this time, quite a lot of questions had accumulated.

Of course, they asked a lot about Armenia's future in the union, given Yerevan's ambiguous policy; about the prospects for Russian-Kazakh cooperation; and about the topics of a face-to-face conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. But the most pressing issue, as always, was the Ukrainian conflict. Today, the Russian Federation's negotiations on Ukraine are on pause, the head of the Russian Federation stated. Nevertheless, certain contacts on the settlement of the conflict remain, and Moscow is ready to resume dialogue.

— We have never refused to negotiate. Please, we didn't stop them, we are ready to continue," the Russian leader said.

The Kremlin announced a pause in the trilateral negotiations with the participation of the United States back in mid-March. At the same time, the last round in this format was held in Geneva on February 17-18. The next meeting, scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi, was postponed due to the US war with Iran. Later, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, stated that the conflict would continue until Vladimir Zelensky gained the courage to conclude a peace agreement with Russia. Moscow always emphasizes that only lasting and sustainable peace will make sense.

Based on this, the negotiation process can resume only in the autumn, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

"Some kind of negotiation format will resume after the parties conduct summer military operations,— he explained.

At the same time, the pause may last longer if the Democrats win the November congressional elections. In this case, Kiev will not feel pressure to resume negotiations, as it happens under the Republicans, the expert believes.

While the diplomatic process is at a standstill, Moscow is strengthening its position on the battlefield. At least, when Vladimir Putin said that the military operation was coming to an end, he had in mind the successful offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on all fronts.

— I made this statement for a reason, but based on an analysis of the situation on the battlefield, and there our troops are advancing in all directions. You see, every single day," he explained to reporters.

According to him, the situation at the front is developing in such a way that it allows us to assert that the conflict is nearing its end. However, the president did not name specific dates.

"It's not just reckless, it's just never done that way, and I won't do it," the Russian leader said.

At the same time, Russia has always sought to resolve the issue peacefully. For this purpose, in particular, the Minsk agreements were signed, which, as a result, were violated by the Ukrainian side and led to a full-scale conflict.

Is it worth waiting for Europe's participation in the negotiations

Recently, the European Union has repeatedly called for Brussels' readiness to participate in negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. Thus, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, said that he was discussing with EU leaders preparations for negotiations with Russia. Finnish President Alexander Stubb also stressed that Europe is approaching the moment when it needs to "open channels of political dialogue with Russia."

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who also participated in the last EAEU summit, told reporters that during a recent telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, he invited him to meet with him and Vladimir Putin in Minsk.

"He [Macron] says, 'I'm not ruling out this meeting.' I say, "So you should call Putin. Come, sit down, have a manly conversation," Lukashenko said.

During the press conference, Vladimir Putin was asked which European politician it would be preferable for Russia to negotiate with. Earlier, he named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. This time, in response to a question from Izvestia correspondent Alyona Nefedova about Schroeder, the president spoke warmly about him again. He stated that this is a man who can be trusted and whom he considers his friend. Nevertheless, the EU itself must choose a candidate for negotiations with the Russian Federation, Putin stressed.

— It is not our business to determine the negotiator, but, of course, our business is to meet with one or another subject of the current politics of Western Europe or not. That's our business," he said.

However, experts are confident that the European Union will not participate in the negotiations on Ukraine in any case. Today, Europe is viewed by Russia as a party to the conflict, so its involvement in the settlement will further complicate the positive outcome of the negotiations, political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia. Moreover, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that they did not see Brussels as a possible negotiator, as European politicians had repeatedly advocated Russia's defeat in the conflict, Ivan Loshkarev recalled.

However, the Kremlin has rightly noted that discussions in Europe about candidates for dialogue are not bad, because a few months ago there were no such conversations. Nevertheless, it is Western countries that are currently supplying Kiev with drones, which they use to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation, including the recent strike on Starobilsk.

Aggressive statements against Moscow are also continuing. For example, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris said earlier that NATO should show Russia the ability to "penetrate a small fortress" in Kaliningrad. In response, Russia can level to the ground anyone who tries to destroy its bases, Putin said harshly.

Romania escalated diplomatically, deciding to close the Russian Consulate General in Constanta and expel the Consul General. A similar step was taken in response to the arrival of an alleged Russian drone on Romanian territory on the night of May 29. At the same time, Moscow is ready to conduct an objective investigation of the incident if it receives the wreckage or data of a drone that crashed in the country, the Russian president stressed.

Meanwhile, Western media are actively provoking an escalation of the conflict, reporting that Russia is allegedly preparing for war with Europe. Putin stressed that Moscow had never had any aggressive intentions towards European countries and even quoted Goebbels: "The more incredible the lie, the sooner it will be believed." Lying has become a common technique for both politicians and the media, which the Russian leader called "the means of mass deception."

Thus, it is obvious that the resumption of the negotiation process and the EU's accession to it cannot be expected in the near future. The conflict is still being resolved mainly on the battlefield. Nevertheless, none of the parties declares the termination of negotiations or withdrawal from the settlement process.