How not to cheat: the EAEU called on Armenia to decide on the account of the European Union

The fate of Armenia in the EAEU was discussed in Astana, Kazakhstan. The leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan adopted a joint statement at the summit on May 29. The parties called on Yerevan to hold a referendum on joining the EU or staying in the EAEU. At least, the Deputy Prime Minister of the republic, who arrived in place of Nikol Pashinyan, stated that Armenia intends to continue to participate in the work of the union in good faith. In case of a step towards the EU, according to experts, Armenia will be the loser. What exactly the republic will lose and what the EAEU has achieved in 12 years is in the Izvestia article.

The EAEU discussed the future status of Armenia

Vladimir Putin's state visit to Kazakhstan ended on May 29. And on this day, there were noticeably more flags at the Independence Palace, where bilateral talks were held the day before. Along with the Kazakh and Russian national symbols of Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia fluttered on the square. The leaders of almost all these countries personally attended the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, the most important economic association in the post-Soviet space.

Only Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not arrive, citing his busy schedule before the June 7 elections. Instead, he sent Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan to Astana. However, it is difficult to deny that this is related to the main intrigue of the summit — Armenia's future in the EAEU.

Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan during the enlarged session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council at the Palace of Independence

Photo: TASS/Alexander Kazakov

The association made it clear that Yerevan is pursuing a very contradictory policy, trying to sit on two chairs. On the one hand, it is in no hurry to leave the EAEU, receiving enormous economic benefits, on the other, it is moving as close as possible to the EU in the hope of investments and guarantees of support from them. In 2025, the Armenian Parliament adopted the law "On the beginning of the EU Accession process". That is, tactically, the country remains in the EAEU for the time being in order to avoid an economic shock, but in every possible way demonstrates its desire to continue the European track.

Moscow has repeatedly warned about the impossibility of combining the two unions (the EU and the EAEU), especially given the militarization of Europe. Armenia's desire to join the EU will eventually lead to the termination of the country's interaction with the EAEU, which means the loss of all associated preferences. The republic's GDP has doubled during its membership, exports to the EAEU countries have increased 10-fold, and imports have increased 4.5-fold. Pashinyan understands all this, but he does not give up on European ambitions. "When the time comes," Armenia will have to make a choice, the prime minister retorted earlier.

Yerevan's current foreign policy also affects relations with Moscow. Vladimir Putin discussed this delicate topic with Nikol Pashinyan during his visit to Moscow on April 1. At the same time, the president repeated at a press conference following his trip to Kazakhstan:: "Everything that is good for Armenians is acceptable and good for Russia."

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (from right to left) during a meeting in the Kremlin, April 1, 2026

Photo: TASS/Mikhail Metzel

In general, the whole atmosphere of the summit was, of course, burdened by the "Armenian issue." Nevertheless, the heads of state, including the President of the Russian Federation, greeted the Armenian delegate before the start of the work.

Following the meeting, the leaders adopted a statement on the possible consequences of Armenia's suspension of the treaty in the EAEU. The document was signed by Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Sadyr Japarov. In particular, the text notes that Yerevan's preparations for EU integration are considered as a factor capable of creating risks for the economic security of the EAEU countries. The leaders consider it necessary to hold a national referendum in Armenia on joining the European Union or remaining in the EAEU. "As soon as possible," the statement emphasizes. And that's not all — the EAEU members intend to assess the consequences of Armenia's suspension of membership. The deadline is until December.

This generally even fits into the context of Nikol Pashinyan's vision: he previously said that the decision on further membership in the EAEU or joining the EU would be made by the citizens of the country. He noted that his task is to ensure the possibility of such a choice for the population. During his speech at the summit, Mher Grigoryan expressed the republic's readiness to work in good faith as part of the EAEU. While Yerevan is still in it, of course.

Photo: TASS/Alexander Kazakov

— Armenia will be the main loser here, given that its economy is insignificant and its share in trade with the Russian Federation and other EAEU countries is quite limited. On the contrary, access to the Russian market is a key tool of the country's foreign economic export strategy. Russian companies are the main investors. And the European Union is geographically remote and generally does not favor goods from such exotic and limited economies," said Stanislav Pritchin, an expert at the Valdai Club and head of the Central Asia sector at IMEMO RAS.

What has the EAEU achieved in 12 years

Armenia really has a lot to lose. The Eurasian Economic Union was established exactly 12 years ago, and during this time its total GDP has grown from $1.6 trillion to $3.01 trillion, the volume of mutual trade between the member states has doubled, and trade with third countries has increased by 72%.

— It was on this day, May 29, in 2014, that the treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed in the capital of Kazakhstan. This event has become an important milestone in the Eurasian integration. On this occasion, let me congratulate all my colleagues on the Day of the Eurasian Economic Union and wish them success in the further development of our integration association for the benefit of our countries and peoples," Kassym—Jomart Tokayev said at the very beginning of the meeting.

Photo: Global Look Press/Bulkin Sergey

The meeting in a narrow format, according to media reports, lasted two hours. And then everything shifted to an expanded format, where the participants took turns expressing how they see the further expansion of the association. Today, one of the prospects for the development of the EAEU is very innovative, which only confirms the correct vector of the union's development. And this is artificial intelligence.

— Our task is to make artificial intelligence peaceful and prevent it from being turned into a weapon of mass destruction. Therefore, the words "responsible use" in the union's statement are key," Alexander Lukashenko said.

Kazakhstan agrees with this. The volume of investments in innovative projects has increased more than fivefold, and more than half of all investments are directed specifically to the digital sphere, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said. Vladimir Putin noted the work in the EAEU in the field of import substitution. Thanks to the expansion of industrial cooperation, states have created effective value chains, promoted import substitution, and introduced digital technologies and innovations. Almost all payments between the EAEU countries are made in national currencies: This ensures the security of trade, the Russian president said.

— The Eurasian Economic Union and our integration activities attract a lot of attention abroad. This has already been discussed today. Many foreign countries and large regional structures, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, are interested in developing ties with the five,— Vladimir Putin said.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Vladislav Vodnev

The EAEU has already begun negotiations on concluding a free trade agreement with Tunisia, Sadyr Japarov said. Today, such trade agreements are in force with Vietnam, Iran, China and Serbia. Free trade agreements with the UAE, Mongolia and Indonesia will come into force soon. Negotiations with India, a huge and extremely promising market for the EAEU, are in an active phase.

And these are far from all integration initiatives in which the EAEU will be involved in one way or another. Perhaps one day we will witness the creation of a Large Eurasian Partnership, which could include the EAEU, SCO and even ASEAN — the authorship of the idea belongs to Vladimir Putin. The Russian president proposed such an initiative back in 2015. After more than 10 years, the idea of forming this partnership seems more and more realistic.