Disruptive wave: New Glenn rocket explosion may delay creation of a lunar base

The explosion of the New Glenn rocket, which occurred on May 28 in the United States at the Cape Canaveral space center, is perhaps the most powerful non—nuclear explosion in the history of mankind. The incident may affect the timing of lunar exploration, as this rocket is associated with plans to deliver rovers, equipment and base components to the satellite, experts say. According to them, the repair of the launch complex, the creation of a new rocket and the investigation of the causes of the disaster will take many months. Izvestia investigated how serious the consequences of the accident would be.

Will the explosion delay NASA's lunar program

The explosion of Blue Origin's superheavy New Glenn launch vehicle occurred during static firing tests of engines at Launch complex No. 36 of the Cape Canaveral Cosmodrome (USA). This is the final check of the units before launch. The rocket was supposed to launch 48 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit as part of the NG-4 mission (the fourth flight of New Glenn), designed to provide global broadband Internet services.

According to Blue Origin and the US Space Force, no one was injured in the accident, as all maintenance personnel left the site before the tests began. However, the explosion completely destroyed the first and second stages of the launch vehicle, and also caused significant damage to the infrastructure of the launch complex.

In particular, the rocket is designed to launch cargo and manned versions of the Blue Moon lunar lander. With its help, NASA plans to deliver lunar rovers, research equipment and components of the lunar base to the Earth's satellite as part of the Artemis program.

— The accident jeopardizes the timing of the implementation of lunar projects. It may take many months to investigate the causes, repair the launch pad and manufacture a new rocket," Alexander Zheleznov, an expert in cosmonautics and author of the Chronicle of the Space Age Telegram channel, told Izvestia.

Earlier, the head of NASA, Jared Isaacman, presented a plan in which New Glenn was assigned a significant role. This includes the launch of the Blue Moon lunar lander, which is being developed by Blue Origin. In particular, next year, during the Artemis-3 mission, this ship was supposed to practice rendezvous and docking maneuvers in low-Earth orbit, he explained.

According to the expert, due to the disaster, it is likely that the mission will be postponed from the end of 2027 to the beginning or middle of 2028, and the landing of the Blue Moon on the Moon in an unmanned version, which was planned in 2028, will take place no earlier than 2029.

Also, despite the fact that the delivery of rovers and base components to the Moon is scheduled for a more distant future, and there is room for maneuver, the timing of these projects is likely to be adjusted, Alexander Zheleznov added.

When will humans land on the moon

— This is probably the most powerful non-nuclear explosion in the history of mankind. The mass of the rocket was 1800 tons. Now, without information, it is difficult to make accurate estimates, but the deadlines have gone by at least a year," said Pavel Gaiduk, deputy head of the Scientific and exposition department of the Museum of Cosmonautics.

According to him, it is particularly surprising that the accident occurred specifically with New Glenn, since the Blue Origin team is developing new rockets slowly but efficiently. There may be a significant violation of the instructions or a critical design flaw.

— This is a significant blow for NASA. Blue Origin is one of the two main contractors for the creation of lunar landers. Delays in the launch of New Glenn will directly affect the mission schedule. Nevertheless, the incident is not a disaster for the lunar program, but rather an expected business moment. Space is a complicated thing, and rockets explode at everyone. Especially when they start rushing. Maybe one of the reasons for the incident was attempts to speed up the program due to political circumstances," commented Pavel Shubin, an expert in cosmonautics and a writer.

According to the expert, the situation was also influenced by NASA's approach to the implementation of the lunar program, in which orders are distributed among several companies. According to him, this leads to the dispersion of financial, scientific and engineering resources, duplication of individual developments and the formation of a kind of "zoo" of spacecraft and technologies.

He suggested that, based on the current situation, the actual landing of people on the moon should be expected no earlier than the early 2030s.

— The New Glenn accident has shown that the creation of space technology is an extremely difficult task. Especially high-payload rockets, which are characterized by extreme energy flows. In such constructions, very high requirements are placed on materials, control systems and safety. Nevertheless, incidents do happen," said Academician Anatoly Petrukovich, Director of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Now it will take time to diagnose the causes and eliminate the consequences, so the timing of the next rocket launches is at risk, including in the interests of the American lunar program, he said. At the same time, it is premature to draw conclusions about the extent of the delays. To assess the impact of the incident, it is necessary to wait for the results of the official investigation and the position of NASA. At the same time, the American space agency does not rely on a single carrier and cooperates with several contractors at once. In addition, postponements of the lunar program occur for other reasons, so the impact of the New Glenn accident on the overall schedule of the program may be limited.

According to the expert, Blue Origin approaches the creation of space technology more conservatively and relies more on time-tested solutions. Their direct competitors at SpaceX are betting on innovation and moving in a more experimental way. This approach justifies itself from the point of view of publicity, but the answer to the question of which strategy will be more effective in the long run and will allow you to achieve your goals faster remains open.