The expense is over: Russian software developers will double their revenue by 2030
The ban on the use of foreign software in critical information infrastructure facilities, along with grants, tax benefits and support for IT startups, will allow Russian developers to increase sales of system-wide software to 577 billion rubles by 2030, according to the Ministry of Finance. The revenue of its developers may double compared to 2025, follows from the draft updated roadmap "New system-wide software". Market participants agree that the abandonment of foreign software can accelerate the growth of industry revenues. However, experts are skeptical about these plans: many users and companies do not want to abandon foreign solutions. According to their estimates, the import substitution process affected no more than 50% of organizations that are required to switch to domestic software.
What measures will double the income of Russian developers?
The revenue of Russian IT companies operating in the system-wide software market is expected to reach 557 billion rubles by 2030, compared to 270 billion rubles in 2025. This follows from the draft updated roadmap "New system-wide software", which the Ministry of Finance has sent to other departments, industry associations and market participants. Such software includes cybersecurity tools, office suites, database management systems, operating systems, and other categories. Izvestia has reviewed the document.
The Ministry of Finance expects that the figure of 557 billion rubles in 2030 will be reached. According to the agency's estimates, in the coming years, the fastest growth in demand will be observed in the segments of cloud platforms, virtualization tools (technologies that allow software to replace hardware resources) and infrastructure for AI. The market for database management systems will also show significant dynamics, primarily in the context of AI and analytics tasks.
— Now there is a whole range of measures provided for by the national project "Data Economy": from acceleration of IT startups to tax benefits that accredited IT companies can apply, - the Ministry of Finance added.
In addition, regulatory requirements are provided, including standards for critical information infrastructure facilities (CII), which prohibit the use of foreign software, including operating systems, at such facilities. CII includes information systems and communication networks in government agencies, healthcare facilities, telecommunications companies, banks, fuel and energy companies, the extractive industry, and many other industries. The ban on the purchase of foreign programs for them has been in effect since March 31, 2022, and on their use since January 1, 2025. A transition period from imported software to domestic software is planned until the end of 2029.
Interaction with the industry also plays an important role, said Karen Ghazaryan, Director of Analytics at ANO Digital Economy. The organization's site collects and consolidates proposals from businesses and experts, provides feedback on existing support measures, and provides expert support for the implementation of the roadmap.
"This allows us to fine—tune incentive tools and synchronize the efforts of the state and the market, accelerating the development of domestic system—wide software and expanding its implementation," the expert noted.
Among the measures to support the industry, he also named regulatory ones, including requirements for import substitution and priority use of Russian software in the public sector and at critical information infrastructure facilities.
The driver of the increase in demand is the tight timing of the transition to domestic software for critical infrastructure facilities, said Mikhail Chukhlomin, head of Guardant at Aktiv. He also noted the subsidization of key customers who are ready to implement platform solutions, and the provision of a tax deduction for the purchase of such software.
—The sale of domestic software will grow in those segments where import substitution is more and more tightly controlled," says Dmitry Gachko, founder of ITG Corporation and IT Park Rus Technology Park. — However, this approach by itself does not contribute to the development of competition.
Revenue growth can be achieved through the transition of companies from local IT projects to the systematic development of their own digital infrastructure, said Andrey Toloknov, Director of Business Development at Bazis. According to him, it is no longer enough for businesses to maintain the functionality of individual solutions: customers are scaling internal services, developing cloud and hybrid environments, automating processes, and also implementing tools for working with data and artificial intelligence.
An additional growth factor, the expert noted, is the ever-increasing load on the IT infrastructure, which requires more mature system-wide software. In response to this request, developers are accelerating the adaptation of their solutions to the requirements of Russian customers, critical information infrastructure facilities, regulatory standards, and large corporate systems.
State protectionism can be an incentive to use domestic software, says Leonid Konik, a partner at ComNews Research. With the expansion of the list of critical information infrastructure facilities, the government has been able to demand their transfer to Russian software and hardware and software complexes (PAK) not only from state-owned, but also from private companies, he noted.
At the same time, a significant part of the organizations that are required to switch to domestic solutions still use imported ones. According to the Association of Software Developers, by the end of 2025, only 40-45% of such structures had switched to Russian software. Thus, according to the expert, at least half of the software has not been replaced yet.
— Most companies have not switched to domestic software since 2025, taking advantage of the peculiarities of the interpretation of legislation. They reasoned that the programs work on computers, and together they are already a PACKAGE, the transition period for which comes only by 2030," Leonid Konik pointed out.
The replacement of software and hardware systems at the CII facilities will take significantly longer than the regulatory framework suggests, which sets a deadline of the end of 2029, he noted. At the same time, numerous Russian IT vendors need a large volume of orders in a short time to survive and develop.
Which software will demand grow the fastest?
A ban on the use of foreign software in certain areas, primarily in CII, may become a driver of revenue growth for Russian developers, says Denis Kuskov, CEO of TelecomDaily. This is in many ways a necessary step: foreign software can be deactivated at any time, it may contain critical vulnerabilities, and there is a high risk of data leaks, the expert listed. The downside of this process is a decrease in the level of competition in the market, which usually leads to an increase in the cost of software products and a decrease in their quality, he noted.
In the system-wide software segment, solutions for artificial intelligence, virtualization and orchestration systems, data processing and storage management, and information security will have the most active growth, Mikhail Chukhlomin believes. At the same time, it is important to note the trend towards the transition from point-to-point replacement of individual foreign products to the construction of a single Russian infrastructure stack that covers the basic needs of large businesses, the public sector and CII facilities, he added.
According to Andrey Toloknov, the market for dynamic IT infrastructure management solutions has growth potential. This is due to the growing demand from customers for platforms that allow you to manage virtualization, networks, storage, backups, cloud services and security tools in a single loop. According to iKS-Consulting, which the expert refers to, the volume of this market may increase from 45.3 billion rubles in 2024 to 130.1 billion by 2031. At the same time, the revenue of Russian developers in this segment is able to grow from 24.1 billion to 106.1 billion rubles.
At the beginning of 2023, when the euphoria of import substitution in IT was in the Russian Federation, the government predicted that the volume of the system-wide software market by 2030 would amount to 350.8 billion rubles. And the new document contains a 60% more optimistic target, Leonid Konik noted.
"The peak of import substitution in IT occurred in the 2023-2025s: during this time, almost everyone from whom the state could demand it switched to Russian software products and partly hardware solutions, and those who were really afraid to continue working on Western software," he said.
According to him, the demand for domestic system-wide software is hindered by the parallel import of computer equipment, which often comes with pre-installed programs, such as the Windows operating system on laptops.
— In addition, with the departure of Microsoft from our market, the pirates felt full control, and hacked Windows and Microsoft Office activation keys are sold everywhere and for pennies. This situation also leads to other foreign software products," Leonid Konik added.
The roadmap contains the indicator "The share of Russian organizations that have switched to using basic and applied domestic software" (by 2030 it should reach 80%). But the transition is a shaky concept: there are companies that have even bought licenses for our software, but still use foreign software products, the expert pointed out.
According to Leonid Konik, widespread use of Russian developments is impossible in such an area as mobile operating systems. The user receives it along with the purchase of a smartphone, and it is always either Android, iOS, or HarmonyOS from Huawei, and no one has seen domestic smartphones on the shelves yet, he concluded.
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