Headwinds: The United States and Iran are preparing to unblock Hormuz
The settlement between Iran and Washington is centered around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transportation artery of the global energy market. Discussions — so far through intermediaries — have moved to Qatar, which has a direct relationship to energy supplies. The framework agreement is reportedly 95% ready. However, for free navigation, the Hormuz must be cleared. The UK is already preparing a joint operation with France, but Tehran will not allow NATO forces to reach its shores, experts believe. It is very likely that the authorities of the Islamic Republic will involve friendly countries, for example, Russia. What this interim deal will bring to the world and why a resumption of war is still possible is in the Izvestia article.
The United States and Iran are discussing a framework agreement
Since the beginning of the ceasefire, the settlement around Iran has begun to take on its first concrete outlines. The widely anticipated memorandum between Washington and Tehran is supposedly 95% ready. It will not only extend the truce for 60 days, but will also finally open the Strait of Hormuz — however, for a time until the two sides reach a final agreement to end the war.
It is no coincidence that all the recent discussions, negotiations, and insiders have focused on unblocking the most important waterway. This is also where Qatar enters into the settlement, which in the current situation is suffering severe economic losses. Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the chief negotiator from Tehran, met with Commander of the Pakistani Armed Forces Asim Munir and actually immediately went to Doha. The negotiations there, according to Reuters, citing officials, are really focused on Hormuz, as well as on the issue of highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, the same Munir confirms the imminent conclusion of an agreement between Iran and the United States. And the economy immediately reacts — the price of Brent crude oil dropped below $94 per barrel for the first time since April 21, 2026.
Tehran perceives the blocking of Hormuz solely as an act of American piracy, although attempts by the authorities to charge fees from passing ships are at least a violation of international law. Nevertheless, the republic is at least naming basic steps towards resolving the situation around the strait. As stated in the Iranian Foreign Ministry, at the first stages it is necessary to end the US naval blockade, and at the same time, Iran will take the necessary measures to ensure safe navigation. "How we will do this is a question that worries us. As a coastal state, we have to take into account a lot of details," said Speaker Ismail Bagai.
Who can clear the Strait of Hormuz and how?
One of these "details" is mines, which pose a direct threat to ships. The exact number of mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is unknown. Moreover, there was information that Iran was unable to detect them.
— The classic threat is anchor mines. Structurally, they have changed little over the last century.: it's still the same conventional "ball with explosives and fuses" held at depth by an anchor. The Iranian arsenal in this area is largely based on replicas of old Soviet (and structurally still tsarist) models. Despite their apparent primitiveness, such mines still pose a tremendous danger to shipping," military expert Dmitry Boltenkov explained to Izvestia.
Statements about the chaotic placement of mines may be exaggerated, Tehran has always clearly identified safe corridors, military expert Vasily Dandykin emphasizes. But since the beginning of the war, some of the mine-fighting vessels could have been damaged.
According to the Associated Press, the United Kingdom has begun preparations for a possible mine clearance operation in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to involve France. After the agreement on the cessation of hostilities, ships, hundreds of sailors and UAVs will be sent to the region. The plans of the Royal Navy of Great Britain to clean up the Strait of Hormuz from mines are a classic geopolitical maneuver for London, Dandykin believes.
The minesweeper HMS Hurworth
— By participating in this mission, the United Kingdom solves two tasks at once. The first is to smooth out the emerging cooling in relations with the United States. The second is to show strength by marking its presence in a strategically important region and trying on the role of "savior of the planet" from the global economic crisis, he noted.
However, according to Dandykin, there are a number of technical difficulties: the British navy traditionally uses minesweepers for this, but they are slow-moving and move like "heavy trucks on the water." It will take weeks to assemble them into one unit and walk, for example, from the British base in Cyprus to the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, such a mission requires ocean-going ships capable of withstanding a long and long voyage, which will also take time. And finally, accurate maps of minefields are needed, without which the operation risks turning into a search for a needle in a haystack.
In this regard, it is possible that London will try to involve Ukrainian sailors in the operation, either medically or technically, to whom the UK had previously transferred its mine-fighting ships. Moreover, thanks to the conflict in Ukraine, the British have already gained tremendous practical experience in creating and using various unmanned boats and underwater drones, Boltenkov noted.
It is unlikely that Tehran will want to see NATO forces on its shores. By and large, the Iranians have limited the solution to the "Hormuz issue" only to the Americans and some Arab monarchies, says Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University of Economics and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
"Europe, from the Iranians' point of view, is amorphous and has long discredited itself, so Tehran's attitude is appropriate," he said.
Iran will perceive any steps towards unblocking without bilateral agreements as an encroachment on sovereignty, which will immediately lead to an escalation. It is another matter if the actions of the United States and its allies will fit into this framework agreement, the conclusion of which is questionable.
—And even in the best-case scenario, it will still take time to resolve technical issues for the opening of Hormuz, so it will take at least two to three weeks before normal navigation," says Elena Suponina, an expert at the RIAC and an international political scientist.
Mine defense ship "Lev Chernavin"
It is very likely that Iran may seek help from friendly countries. For example, Russia has extensive experience in conducting large-scale world-class mine operations. Soviet sailors cleared the Suez Canal, and in 1972-1974, a detachment of ships of the USSR Pacific Fleet conducted a unique mine clearance operation at the port of Chittagong in Bangladesh. There are examples in recent history: in preparation for the construction of the Nord Streams, ammunition and sunken objects from the First and Second World Wars were destroyed, and the Black Sea Fleet cleaned the Sea of Azov from mine-explosive devices and unexploded shells.
Izvestia sent a request to the Russian Embassy in Iran regarding a possible appeal from Tehran.
Will the war in Iran end before the World Cup
It is curious that the following information appeared right during the negotiations in Doha: an air defense system went off near the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf, where Iran's oil and gas facilities are located, among other things — Tehran claims that it shot down an enemy drone. The reports came from the Iranian Mehr news agency and so far there is no other confirmation of this, which does not exclude the possibility of provocations by Tehran to strengthen its position.
Western journalists have noticed that Tehran has been literally outplaying Trump in the "art of the deal" lately. Publicly, the head of the White House continues to assure the world community of the success of his campaign.
"Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are going great! — the American leader declared on social networks, however, immediately adding a pinch of his trademark threats. "It's either going to be a great deal for everyone, or no deal at all—going back to the battlefield and shooting, but bigger and more powerful than ever before—and no one wants that!"
However, there is no talk of an early round of negotiations with Washington, as well as an early agreement. The Iranian Foreign Ministry repeats that the exchange of messages with the United States is carried out through a Pakistani intermediary, and there is no need for such a meeting. Moreover, Tehran accused Washington of changing positions too often, which is difficult to disagree with. It is worth noting that the Islamic Republic does not have a unified approach either, which was only due to conflicting statements by the IRGC and the Foreign Ministry on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The decision-making process in Iran has now become more complicated due to the fragmentation of power after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Unblocking the Strait of Hormuz is far from the only issue underlying the contradictions between Iran and the United States, Iran and Israel, Iran and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula that are directly involved in this conflict, said Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Islamic Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In particular, Israel demands that the United States put forward tougher conditions for a deal with Iran, the WSJ writes, citing sources. In addition, West Jerusalem does not intend to bury its own ambitions in the fight against Hezbollah, supported by Tehran. In mid-May, Israel and Lebanon extended the truce, but even before that it was violated almost daily.
There is almost no clarity on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. The IRI emphasizes that they do not intend to talk about it until the unblocking of Hormuz, although fragments of some discussions closed to the public are leaking into the information field. For example, Iran may transfer its highly enriched uranium to China, but this idea is unlikely to appeal to Washington, which dreams of curbing Beijing's nuclear potential.
The enormous difficulties in finding a compromise can provoke hostilities at any moment. At least Trump was going to do this a week ago, but postponed the strikes allegedly at the request of the Gulf states. Farhad Ibragimov believes that this may happen in July, immediately after the World Cup, which will be held in the United States, Canada and Mexico — there are only a few weeks left before the World Cup, and Trump will not risk sacrificing the reputation of the host country. Grigory Lukyanov recalled that the aggression against Iran began in Ramadan, so, apparently, even religious and sports holidays are not taken into account by Washington.
In any case, the resumption of hostilities on different scales and with different duration is extremely likely, because there is no real progress in the negotiation process yet, as well as new factors that would deter the use of force on both sides.
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