- Статьи
- Economy
- Domestic impotence: the price gap between new buildings and secondary buildings has reached 90%
Domestic impotence: the price gap between new buildings and secondary buildings has reached 90%
The price gap between the primary and secondary housing markets in the country reached 90% by the end of 2025, according to Rosstat data, which was studied by Izvestia. In Central Russia, the cost per square meter in new buildings is already almost twice as high as in finished houses. The price difference continues to grow across the country. Experts attribute the situation to the consequences of preferential mortgages and overheating of the market. At the same time, a decrease in demand can only lead to point discounts from developers — there will be no full-fledged reduction in the cost of new housing, and in 2026 it will continue to rise in price faster than expected inflation. How to make real estate more affordable — in the Izvestia article.
Why is the primary almost twice as expensive as the secondary
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the price gap between apartments from the developer and the old stock in Central Russia reached about 90%. The average cost per square meter in new buildings was 314 thousand rubles, while in the secondary market — 165 thousand. In the first quarter of last year, this indicator was lower and stood at 81%. The price imbalance later intensified.
In the whole country, the difference also increased by about 9 percentage points: from 56% to 65%. By the end of the year, the average cost per square meter of new housing was 288 thousand rubles, and the finished one was about 160 thousand rubles.
Such a gap looks abnormal by international standards, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to her, in most European and G7 countries, the difference between primary and secondary housing usually does not exceed 9-15% in favor of new buildings.
The main reason for the skew was preferential mortgages, the expert believes. After the launch of a massive unaddressed program at 8% in 2020, demand for new buildings jumped sharply, and with it prices began to rise. It was assumed that after the program was curtailed, the market would gradually stabilize, but this did not happen. Mortgages for families with children have also become in high demand, accounting for about 58% of all housing loans in Russia in April.
In 2025, prices for new buildings increased by 10-14%, Natalia Milchakova noted. The price increase for new housing was 1.5-2.5 times higher than inflation, which was about 6%.
At the same time, there are more unrealized apartments on the market. Previously, analysts of "Movement.<url> reported to Izvestia that in no major region of the country does the sale of housing exceed 50%, and in most it remains below 30%. We are talking about about 1.6 million unsold objects.
The most overheated regions are Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Moscow and Leningrad regions, as well as Tatarstan, Natalia Milchakova emphasized. It was there that prices for new buildings broke away from the secondary market the most.
Developers are suffering losses
The Central Bank has repeatedly pointed to a decrease in housing affordability and a deterioration in the financial situation of developers. Additional pressure on the industry is created by the growing financial difficulties of developers: loan delinquencies are increasing, revenue is decreasing and sales are falling, added Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties.
The situation is also deteriorating in terms of deadlines for the completion of facilities. Currently, the five largest Russian developers are building with a delay of more than 2.43 million square meters. Housing insurance accounts for about 15% of their portfolio. For comparison, a year ago the figure was only 3.2%.
The Airplane group has the most serious problems. According to market data, the company is building about a third of the total construction volume with a delay. Earlier, the developer applied for state support for 50 billion rubles, but was refused.
The gap between primary and secondary education speaks to several trends at once, Natalia Milchakova believes. Firstly, preferential mortgages continue to support prices for new buildings. Secondly, affordable housing is becoming less and less, even with the existence of government programs. Thirdly, the secondary market remains noticeably cheaper, but many Russians cannot buy an apartment without a mortgage, and the rates on conventional loans remain too high.
At the same time, the cost of an apartment does not double after the house is put into operation, although formally housing is already becoming secondary, it follows from the data of the federal company "Floors". On average, the price reduction is about 20%. However, this indicator is gradually increasing, as new buildings are becoming more expensive faster than the market as a whole.
Nevertheless, the situation creates risks for mortgage borrowers as well. If a person decides to sell the apartment and close the loan, the proceeds may not be enough to fully repay the debt. As a result, the borrower risks being left without housing and with obligations to the bank.
Risks of lower prices for developers
Even with deteriorating demand, it is difficult for developers to accept a serious discount. The reason is the system of project financing, in which construction is actually carried out at the expense of bank loans.
Buyers' money is stored in escrow accounts and becomes available to the developer only after the house is delivered. Up to this point, the company builds the facility with the bank's funds. That is why the price of the facility is initially agreed with the credit institution, explained Kristina Gudym, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.
However, if the market situation changes, the demand for housing may fall. A decision on the terms of the family mortgage is expected as early as July. It is possible that the rate for borrowers with one child will rise to 10%. This could deprive about 3 million families of access to the program, Izvestia previously reported.
Developers could lower prices to stimulate demand, but this would lead to an increase in construction costs, so this practice basically makes no sense.
In this regard, companies have become more likely to use targeted discounts and special programs, said Yulia Bocharnikova, executive director of the federal company "Floors". In some cases, we are talking about 15-20% discounts, in others — about interest-free installments or individual purchase conditions.
— As a rule, for each object there is a "fork" of the price, within which developers make a discount, — the expert explained.
But such measures are gradually reducing the financial safety margin of developers accumulated during the period of record sales in 2020-2023.
— Some developers have really reached the limit of sustainability. If in 2020-2022 they accumulated reserves due to high demand and low interest rates, now due to the rising cost of lending, rising costs and slowing sales, the increase in debt burden is becoming noticeable," explained Kristina Gudym.
Against this background, some companies may refocus on more expensive comfort and business class projects, where demand is less dependent on mortgages, Kristina Gudym believes. In this case, the supply of affordable housing may become even smaller.
Most experts do not expect prices to decrease yet. In the baseline scenario, in 2026, the cost of new buildings may increase by another 13-15%, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip investment company. Secondary housing, according to his estimates, will rise in price by about 8-10%.
Even if the situation worsens, only point discounts on individual objects are possible, Valery Tumin emphasized. The market does not expect a massive drop in prices yet. For investors, this means saving the cost of investing in real estate, but for buyers, housing will continue to become less affordable.
Therefore, Russians are more likely to pay attention to the secondary market, Evgeny Shavnev concluded. Housing there is significantly cheaper — after reducing the key rate, more Russians who postponed buying an apartment due to high mortgage market rates will be able to enter into transactions.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
