Why do the people of Canadian Alberta want to secede from the country? Analysis

The Prime Minister of Alberta, Daniel Smith, announced that the province will hold its own referendum on secession from Canada in October. Earlier, the Stay Free Alberta group managed to collect more than 300,000 votes for holding a referendum with 178,000 required, but the initiative was blocked by the provincial court due to the disagreement of indigenous peoples. What is the reason for Alberta's separatism and why the United States is showing interest in the province — in the Izvestia article.

Why did they start talking about separation

• The first precedent for a referendum on a province's secession from Canada was set by Quebec. The French—speaking province has repeatedly attempted to secede: the last referendum, held in 1995, led to the victory of supporters of the preservation of Quebec in Canada by a very small margin - 0.58% of the vote. As a result, the advisory opinion of the Supreme Court ruled that the province would be able to secede if the majority of its eligible residents voted for such a decision, and this would not infringe on the rights of other citizens. Now this wording is the main obstacle to the secession of Alberta, since the indigenous peoples opposed the very fact of holding a referendum.

• Albertans consider their position in the country to be unfair, and the history of such sentiments dates back to the 1970s. The province is a major supplier of oil, with proven reserves of 167 billion barrels, but since Alberta is landlocked, it has to work with other provinces to enter the international market. Neighboring provinces are preventing this, thereby keeping energy prices low for themselves. Discrimination in trade between regions of the country is not prohibited by Canadian law, and therefore it is even easier for foreign companies to enter the Canadian market than for local ones, according to the IMF report for 2019.

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• The constitutional system of redistribution does not work in favor of the Western Territories, which include Alberta. The province is considered economically successful and therefore acts as a donor of the so-called "equalization payments", which mainly go to Quebec and other eastern territories. However, the calculation of the province's "wealth" does not take into account hydropower, which is one of Quebec's main sources of income.

• Alberta, like other provinces of Western Canada, has long been dissatisfied with the unfair representation of the region in the legislative bodies of Canada: due to the peculiarities of the division into electoral districts, the country's policy was essentially determined by the voters of the eastern provinces, primarily Quebec. In 2022, Alberta gained an additional three seats in the House of Representatives, while Quebec lost one, but the ratio still drew criticism: British Columbia and Alberta gained 80 seats against 78 seats for Quebec. Due to the lack of representation, it is more difficult for the Western territories of Canada to defend their interests in the country's parliament.

U.S. interest in Alberta

• Foreign media report on secret visits by representatives of the US administration to Alberta, hinting that it could become the 51st state that American President Donald Trump spoke about when he proposed that Canada join the United States. Alberta borders the U.S. state of Montana, through which the province's entire exports to the United States go. The province ships oil to the Billings refinery in Montana, and the state supplies equipment, spare parts, and services for oil sands development to Alberta. The United States may be interested in the province's natural resources, as its oil reserves are four times higher than those of the United States.

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• The population of Alberta is culturally and historically closer to the United States than to its Canadian neighbors: they are mostly Americans who migrated north from the United States. Conservative parties traditionally receive high support in the province, but at the same time, Albertans do not share the monarchical views common in French-speaking territories of Canada. Inside Alberta, they are skeptical about unification with the United States: Trump's imposition of duties against Canada has fueled anti-American sentiment.

The chances of secession of the province

• The fact of holding a referendum does not mean that the province will be able to secede from Canada. This item will be just one of 10 issues that Albertans will be able to vote on on October 19th. In essence, people will have to answer the question of whether Alberta should remain part of Canada, or whether the process should begin to hold a binding provincial referendum on secession in accordance with the Canadian constitution. In fact, by doing so, the provincial authorities expect to put an end to the issue of the province's withdrawal from Canada, especially since the petition for the preservation of the existing status of Alberta has collected a third more signatures than the separation initiative.

• Support for separatist sentiments in Alberta remains low, but for the province it is rather a symbolic step to attract the attention of the Canadian government and demand any concessions. Even some supporters of separatism claim that their goal is a broader autonomy for Alberta, especially since Ottawa has recently been strengthening control over the territories and increasingly intervening in the areas of health, education and social services, which are traditionally controlled by provincial administrations.