The Old Guard: Will zoomers be able to replace retiring workers
In the next five years, 11 million people will leave the Russian labor market due to retirement. Zoomers and representatives of the alpha generation are expected to take their place, however, due to the demographic pit observed in the 1990s and early 2000s, there are fewer young cadres. At the same time, due to the shortage of people in the labor market, experienced employees often do not have time to teach their successors - they are forced to work "for two" to fulfill the plan, and they cannot transfer their unique competencies to a new generation. Whether it will be possible to replace retiring employees is in the Izvestia article.
The Great Exodus
The shortage of personnel in Russia remains one of the main macroeconomic problems at the moment. Low unemployment in the country (about 2%) is not only an important economic achievement, but also a signal that the labor market has almost exhausted resources for further expansion.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, proposed to solve the problem of personnel shortage by attracting categories of the population to work, of which there are currently not so many on the labor market. We are talking about young people, pensioners and pre-retirees, who, according to the minister, can be attracted to the necessary industries, "including through retraining and advanced training in the format of short programs, internships, targeted training, mentoring, as well as the development of forms of flexible employment.
Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
The Russian population is rapidly aging, which increases the average age of able-bodied citizens (now it is 42.5 years old). This figure was announced by Anton Kotyakov, Minister of Labor and Social Protection, at the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in March.
"Traditionally, people aged 30-39 are considered the most involved in the economy, their share is 25%. But today, in terms of the number of people employed, this group is inferior to the group of 40-49 years old," said the head of the department.
In these conditions, pensioners are becoming an increasingly important resource for the economy — according to Kotyakov, the share of workers over 60 is already higher than the share of young people aged 23-30 (12% versus 11%, respectively).
However, pensioners do not seek to remain in the labor market en masse. According to selective monitoring of the quality and accessibility of Rosstat services, 57% of unemployed pensioners are unable to work due to age, health problems or family circumstances. Another 38% simply do not want to have a feasible job that brings additional income.
In the future, the personnel reserve will continue to be depleted — in the next five years, about 11 million jobs will need to be replaced in Russia due to the retirement of employees, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. According to him, by 2030, the additional need for workers in the economy will amount to about 3.1 million people.
According to the Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation, this situation is not a challenge on a long-term horizon, but a problem that is relevant for today. To solve the personnel issue, it is necessary to redistribute labor resources from low-productivity sectors to priority sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, information technology, creative industries and tourism, Novak believes.
The forecast of the personnel needs of the economy is formed annually, the Russian Ministry of Labor reminded Izvestia. According to the most relevant one, developed for the period up to 2032, in the next seven years it will be necessary to additionally attract about 12 million specialists. On average, it is necessary to connect 1.7 million people per year.
Pass the baton
However, it is too early to talk about a catastrophe in the labor market. The number of 11-12 million employees seems frightening, but it is important to understand that these people will not retire at the same time, and the process of replacing them will be gradual.
The main reserve of the market is considered to be young people, therefore, the data of the forecast of the personnel needs of the economy are taken into account when adjusting the admission control figures for educational organizations, the press service of the Ministry of Labor noted. This, according to the agency, helps to prevent an imbalance of supply and demand.
The state is actively training new personnel — since 2025, a career support program for students has been launched throughout Russia, the ministry noted. This is a set of measures for career guidance, internships and employment of students and schoolchildren with the participation of employers.
— In addition, the range of services of recruitment centers is expanding both for adult applicants and for companies that are looking for employees. This whole package of measures is aimed at increasing the level of employment and staffing the economy," the ministry added.
But young people will not be able to fully replace retiring employees, believes Elena Witchak, a career consultant and professor of business practice at the Skolkovo School of Management.
— For the first time, we are entering a situation where the shortage of people is becoming not a temporary problem of the labor market, but a structural limitation of the economy. Therefore, companies will compete not only in salaries, but in the ability to quickly retrain people, retain experience and radically increase productivity," she says.
The classical education system will not be able to cope with the task of training the right personnel if it remains in the logic of "one profession for life," warns the interlocutor of Izvestia.
— The main change will be the learning model itself: I think that education will increasingly shift towards continuous retraining, short cycles of skill acquisition and close integration with the employer. In fact, we are moving towards a world where a person's ability to learn faster than change becomes more important than their original specialty," Witczak believes.
The question of whether young people will be able to replace retiring employees seems simple only at first glance, well-being expert Olga Dudnichenko, Director of Communications at the I Understand corporate well-being platform, draws attention. The labor market does not work on the principle of "some have left, others have been hired," especially in industries where experience, work culture, professional intuition and the ability to act in non—standard situations are important.
— The 11 million workers who will have to be replaced are not just statistics, but a huge layer of experience that can leave the economy along with specific people. The main risk is to lose knowledge that is not written down in the instructions, understanding of processes, weaknesses of the system, informal rules and ways to solve problems quickly, the expert warns.
In the past, businesses, she said, talked a lot about youth, digitalization and new professions, and often treated senior employees as "age-related staff" rather than as carriers of valuable knowledge and experience. But now it is becoming increasingly clear that this "silver capital" cannot be quickly downloaded, digitized, or replaced by an intern after a short adaptation.
— A young specialist does not become a ready-made professional on the day of signing an employment contract. He needs to be taught, accompanied, mentored, and given the opportunity to safely gain practical experience. Therefore, the education system alone will not cover the need of the economy for millions of specialists: real qualifications in many areas are already being formed within the business," Dudnichenko emphasizes.
Consolidate positions
The speed of the Russian economy reaching the target growth rates set by Russian President Vladimir Putin depends on solving personnel issues and increasing labor productivity, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia. One of the answers to the current personnel challenges is a bill to raise the maximum threshold for overtime that an employee can complete in a calendar year (it was increased from 120 to 240 hours).
Such legislative changes, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will attract more than 750 thousand people. employees who are ready for additional work, and close about 100 thousand. vacancies without searching for new staff.
But according to Olga Dudnichenko, the most acute shortage of personnel will be in industries where it is impossible to quickly "rebuild" a person from scratch, such as industry, manufacturing, transport, medicine, engineering and technical specialties, IT and high-tech sectors.
The shortage of employees will be felt most strongly in areas where not just diplomas are needed, but a long training cycle, high responsibility and resistance to stress, Elena Witchak believes.
— Construction, engineering, transport, manufacturing, energy, medicine are industries that physically keep the country in working order, but at the same time they are increasingly competing with more "light" sectors for the attention of young people. Therefore, the main challenge of the coming years is to regain the prestige of difficult professional work," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
The problem of staff shortage cannot be solved only by beautiful vacancies and youth internships, Dudnichenko agrees. According to her, people should not only be attracted, but also retained.
— And staff retention today is no longer just a salary. These are the quality of management, respect for experience, clear rules, burnout prevention, health care, psychological safety and well—being programs that help a person stay in the resource, the expert emphasizes.
In the case of senior employees, corporate well-being may include health support, financial and retirement counseling, psychological assistance, flexible employment formats, and the opportunity to transition into a mentor or internal expert role.
Robots are working hard
Technological progress, which will automate many processes, is often called the answer to the current shortage of personnel. Russian business has already begun to actively invest in technology, but it is important to understand that the key issue here is not readiness for their implementation, but economic feasibility and payback horizon, said Vladislav Airapetov, President and Chairman of the Management Board of the MRT Group of companies. In industries with a high proportion of repetitive operations, investments in automation, digital control systems and robotics are already underway and will continue to increase, because for businesses it is not only a way to replace people, but also a tool to increase manageability and reduce dependence on the human factor.
— However, it cannot be said that companies are massively ready to "replace people with technology at any cost." The implementation of such solutions requires significant capital investments, and with the high cost of money and uncertainty in the market, the business acts carefully. As a result, there is not a sudden transition, but a gradual transformation: the most expensive and scarce areas are automated, and not the entire chain at once," the expert says.
In the coming years, the shortage of personnel will remain one of the key factors of pressure on business, he expects. And the answer to this will be a combined one — some of the tasks will be automated, but some will still be left to the person.
Technologies and artificial intelligence will really help to close a certain proportion of the missing employees, admits Olga Dudnichenko. But it is dangerous to think that a business will simply buy a "digital tablet" and stop depending on people. Automation, according to the expert, can remove the routine, but it will not replace responsibility, critical thinking, human judgment and experience. And if millions of jobs are not closed, companies will start growing more slowly, launching projects more cautiously, and putting more strain on the remaining employees, which may lead to increased turnover, at which the personnel shortage will begin to reproduce itself.
— Therefore, the main question is not whether young people will replace pensioners, but whether businesses will have time to stop treating people as expendable and start managing human capital seriously. Experience does not retire beautifully on schedule: if it is not transferred on time, it simply disappears along with the person who knew how everything really works," the Izvestia interlocutor summarizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
