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- Indicative introduction: The EU is discussing Ukraine's admission before the end of the conflict
Indicative introduction: The EU is discussing Ukraine's admission before the end of the conflict
Kiev may join the EU before the conflict with Moscow is resolved, the head of the committee for cooperation with Ukraine in the European Parliament, Pekka Toveri, told Izvestia. Earlier, the European Commission announced plans to resume negotiations on this in June. However, the EU is split on the Ukrainian issue, and individual countries are making their own demands on Kiev. Experts believe that Brussels will not be able to accept him into the EU in the near future due to fears of a conflict with Russia. The expansion of the union is stalling and becoming a toxic topic, and the last successful accession took place more than 10 years ago.
Terms of Ukraine's accession to the EU
The European Union is discussing the scenario of Kiev joining the union before the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, the head of the Ukraine–EU Parliamentary Cooperation Committee in the European Parliament (EP) Pekka Tovery told Izvestia.
— I personally believe, and I am sure that there is great support for this idea, that we should accept Ukraine into the EU, even if there is still an open conflict between Ukraine and Russia. If we don't do this, it will become an open invitation for the Russian Federation to continue the conflict as a way to stop Ukraine's integration with the West," the politician said.
According to him, in this way Brussels will send "a clear signal to Russia that sooner or later Ukraine will join the EU and Russia has no right to vote in this matter." At the same time, he believes that the EU countries will not be drawn into an open conflict with Moscow, since some of them joined the union, having a territorial dispute with Russia. In particular, Estonia claims the Pechora district of the Pskov region, Moscow considers such claims unacceptable.
In 2022, Ukraine received the status of a candidate for EU membership. According to the latest report of the European Commission, Kiev has "made progress in implementing key reforms" and fulfilled the conditions necessary to launch negotiations on three out of six clusters. In March, the Ukrainian authorities received a full package of conditions necessary for joining the EU. Vladimir Zelensky insists on the country's admission to the union in 2027.
In 2024-2025, the European Union tried to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession, but each time Hungary blocked the process. Recently, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, announced that negotiations are still planned to start before the end of June. The new Hungarian government, led by Peter Magyar, however, announced that it would not support Kiev's entry until it fulfilled 11 requirements. This is primarily about the Ukrainian authorities' respect for the rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia, especially regarding the use of the Hungarian language.
At the same time, Budapest may hold a national referendum on this issue, Pekka Tovery believes. The previous Hungarian government held a vote, but it had no legal effect.
— This is a dangerous step, because there is still a lot of hostility towards Ukraine in Hungary due to Orban's long-term propaganda against it. I personally believe that the EU should push Magyar to make a decision in parliament based on Ukraine's achievements in fulfilling its membership obligations," said the head of the European Parliament committee.
Natalia Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, noted in an interview with Izvestia that Ukraine's accession to the EU is unlikely in the near future, since for this it is necessary to achieve unanimity. However, at the moment, not all EU members agree with this scenario.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar
EU enlargement has become a difficult and toxic topic, as the last successful case of accession was in 2013, when Croatia joined the list of members. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro are currently waiting in line to join the EU. In addition, the candidate status was granted to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey. Kosovo is considered a potential candidate, but five EU countries — Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Cyprus and Greece - do not recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republic.
The threat of direct conflict between the EU and Russia
Ukraine's accession to the EU carries high risks of a direct military clash between Brussels and Moscow. Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union provides for the need for military assistance if one of the EU member States finds itself in a state of conflict. Much depends on the borders within which the EU plans to accept Ukraine. Recall that in 2022, following the results of referendums, the DPR, the LPR, the Zaporizhia and the Kherson regions became part of Russia. The European Commission told Izvestia that they support Ukraine's entry into "its internationally recognized borders."
The completion of Ukraine's European integration will put European countries in a tough dilemma. They will either have to send their armies to the front line against the Russian Armed Forces, or ignore the article of the treaty, destroying the authority of the European Union. So far, the "coalition of the willing" led by Britain and France is planning to send its military to Ukraine only in the event of a cease-fire. Russia strongly opposes such a scenario.
However, the probability of sending a military contingent to Ukraine is low even in this case, Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— This issue remains an instrument of media policy in the hands of individual European countries, since the number of direct levers of influence on the Ukrainian problem is limited. The risks of sending such a contingent significantly exceed the possible results of such a step for the initiating countries," Sergeev said.
Russia has never objected to Ukraine's membership in the European Union, Moscow considers Kiev's accession to NATO a threat to its security, Vladimir Putin said last year. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly noted: The EU is increasingly becoming a military-political bloc. Therefore, Moscow may reconsider its attitude towards attempts by neighboring states to join it.
Who is for and against Ukraine's rapid admission to the EU
The European Union has essentially split into two camps over Ukraine's membership. The first group of countries insists that Kiev fulfill all the requirements for the EU candidate country. Germany is called the leader of this camp: Chancellor Friedrich Merz said earlier that Ukraine may have to accept the loss of part of its territory for the sake of the prospect of joining the European Union. According to France 24, he proposed to grant her the status of an "associate member" of the EU without the right to vote for the period of accession. France offers a similar model, giving Kiev access to the common agricultural policy and European financing.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Hungary, Slovakia and Poland also consider it necessary for Ukraine to meet the requirements for EU membership. It is noteworthy that Poland, which previously promoted the accelerated entry of Ukraine, has now also changed its position. Kiev must follow the same path as Warsaw in its time, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a joint press conference in Warsaw with his Hungarian counterpart Peter Magyar.
As the head of the Polish Defense Ministry, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh, said earlier, the European Union will not accept Ukraine into its ranks with a high level of corruption. The United States is currently investigating 56 possible cases of fraud and corruption related to financial assistance to Ukraine, and the former head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, is also suspected.
Supporters of accelerated admission of Ukraine include the Baltic states and Scandinavia. Last year, the authorities of Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden and Estonia called on Brussels to accelerate Kiev's European integration. These states are taking an extremely hostile position towards Russia, demanding to increase pressure on Moscow.
Moreover, they go further than others in their support for Ukraine: the Baltic States, for example, provided the Armed Forces of Ukraine with air corridors for strikes on Russian territory, the SVR of the Russian Federation reported. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that the Russian military is already preparing the necessary response.
However, the Baltic states are already feeling the consequences of their decision to support Kiev at all costs. In Latvia, Evika Silini's government resigned due to Ukrainian drones hitting an oil depot in Rezekne. An air alert was issued in Vilnius on May 20 and residents were urged to take cover. Estonia's air defense had to shoot down a Ukrainian UAV.
The CSTO is concerned about information about drone flights in the skies over European countries. The organization captures the threat of escalation of military-political tension in the region, the Information and public relations department of the CSTO secretariat told Izvestia.
— We proceed from the need to prevent any excesses that could endanger peace and stability in the organization's area of responsibility and on its border, primarily by using the opportunities of an open political dialogue. This is exactly the approach that CSTO Secretary General Taalatbek Masadykov spoke about during a recent meeting with OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu, the CSTO secretariat noted.
Ukraine's economic performance, as well as the situation with corruption, clearly do not meet the requirements for EU membership. It is impossible to achieve Kiev's membership without the consent of Berlin and Paris, but even one small country can delay the entire process. Therefore, the desire of the radical part of the union to accept Ukraine as soon as possible is unlikely to be realized. And because of the drone situation, the Baltic States may finally realize that they face a direct clash with Russia.
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