Dangerous deal: Trump's optimism borders on new threats to Iran
The United States and Israel may resume large-scale military operations against Iran at any moment. At the same time, there is no alternative to a political and diplomatic settlement of this conflict, Moscow believes. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia, there is still a chance for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, and the Russian Federation will contribute to this. The United States and Iran are discussing points of a possible agreement, but any agreement will be fragile, experts say. The parties do not trust each other, and besides, Israel, which is aimed at continuing the fight against Iran, can disrupt the agreements.
Trump talks about an imminent deal with Iran and promises a new strike
The fighting between Washington and Tehran is at risk of resuming again. The situation is in a state of delicate balance: on the one hand, American President Donald Trump claims that a deal is close, on the other, he did not rule out that the United States would strike Iran again.
Russia believes that even now, when the parties are on the brink of war again, there is still a chance for a political and diplomatic settlement.
— The realization of this chance depends on a number of factors. We are trying to work with them to play their role. Such factors include, for example, the absence of rash, one—sided decisions in the UN Security Council," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. — We know that such initiatives appear periodically. They're on the table now, too. I am not sure that some one-sided decisions of the Security Council strengthen the chances of political and diplomatic agreements.
In May, the United States and Bahrain submitted a draft UN Security Council resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, which, among other things, demands that Iran stop attacks, mining and levying fees in the waterway. Moscow did not support the document because it ignored the root cause of the crisis, the US—Israeli military adventure against Iran.
The American Operation Epic Fury lasted 66 days— from February 28 to May 5. At the same time, the United States continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The Central Command of the US Armed Forces reported that 88 merchant ships linked to Iran were intercepted during the month. More than 20 American warships are currently involved in the operation, including two aircraft carriers, three large amphibious assault ships with Marines on board, missile destroyers and coastal warships on duty in the Arabian Sea, as well as 100 fighter jets, helicopters and tanker aircraft. According to Bloomberg, NATO is discussing the possibility of deploying forces in Hormuz: the alliance may send ships to help ships navigate the route if the strait is not opened by early July.
Trump said on May 19 that the US military "may" have to attack Iran again. He admitted that the United States could launch strikes as early as next Friday or one of the following days.
— We hear different statements from officials from Washington. Some of them create additional opportunities to hope for the success of the negotiations. Some of the rhetoric is really militant. But we still hope that a political and diplomatic settlement at the current stage of the conflict is inevitable and has no alternative," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov.
The leadership of the United States and Iran is not interested in continuing hostilities, but the situation is such that neither Trump nor the Iranian authorities can compromise, said Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— For Iran, this will be a "loss of face" in the current domestic political situation in the country, which is completely unstable on many economic, social and other issues. Compromise is also impossible for Trump, because he has a difficult domestic political situation, as does his Republican Party," he told Izvestia.
The expert recalled that midterm elections will be held in the United States in November, and the compromise will be considered by opponents of Republicans and Trump as a military defeat. Meanwhile, the president's rating has already dropped to record levels.
Prospects for a peace agreement between the United States and Iran
Nevertheless, Trump does not give up trying to achieve results. On the night of May 19, he announced that he had decided to postpone the strikes on Iran "for two or three days." The president added that he had been asked to do this by American allies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and "some other" countries. The head of the White House expressed the hope that the short pause would eventually become indefinite, but at the same time ordered the military to prepare for an attack if the parties did not agree.
Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia threatened that if Washington strikes, Tehran will open new military fronts. At the same time, the Iranians are confident that the American leader is using statements about peace to further threaten. "We will either emerge victorious or die a martyr's death," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib-Abadi.
Iran demands the fulfillment of a number of key conditions for concluding a full-fledged peace and continuing negotiations with the United States (the first round was held on April 11-12 in Islamabad). Among them, according to media reports, the lifting of sanctions, recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the end of the war on all fronts (especially in Lebanon), the unfreezing of Iranian funds. The United States, according to the Fars news agency, refuses any compensation and damage payments and the unfreezing of assets. The Americans demand the removal and transfer of 400 kg of uranium to the United States, and the maintenance of only one complex of Iran's nuclear facilities. The cessation of hostilities on all fronts is linked to the conduct and progress of negotiations.
On May 18, Tasnim news agency reported that Iran had sent a new 14-point proposal to the Americans through Pakistan (the Americans rejected the previous version). According to him, the text focuses on the cessation of hostilities and confidence-building measures. In addition, the media claim that Iran allegedly agrees to transfer enriched uranium to Russia instead of the United States, however, under certain conditions. It is not reported on which ones. American Vice President Jay D. Vance hastened to declare that the Washington administration would not want enriched uranium from Iran to be moved to Russia. According to the Arab TV channel Al Hadath, Tehran may also waive its demands to the United States to compensate for the damage caused during the fighting. At the same time, Tehran intends to seek economic concessions from Washington.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that even if Washington and Tehran are able to conclude an agreement, it will in any case be fragile.
— There is always a possibility of reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran, but this possibility depends on two key issues. First, can each side trust the other in terms of fulfilling the terms of the agreement? So far, the United States has been unreliable and untrustworthy on this issue, as it withdrew from the Geneva nuclear talks and carried out an attack the very next day, as did Israel. Secondly, Israel seems to be seeking to derail any potential deal between the US and Iran. Both of these factors make even the agreement reached fragile in terms of its implementation," said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit.
Sergei Demidenko, Dean of the Faculty of the School of Political Studies at the ION Presidential Academy, believes that it will be important for Tehran to document the US rejection of demands regarding restrictions on Iranian weapons, at least partial lifting of sanctions, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a sustainable cease-fire in Lebanon. For the United States, the limitation of Iran's nuclear program is of the greatest importance.
— Everyone understands perfectly well that any agreement between the United States and Iran will be fragile. Relatively speaking, the administration will change in the States, and everything will start all over again. The very fact that there is such a "specific leadership" in Iran will always be perceived as an irritating factor for any US administration, the analyst believes.
At the same time, the US conflict with Iran is costing the American taxpayer billions of dollars. The total cost of Operation Epic Fury has already been estimated by the Pentagon at $29 billion. According to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal, the United States' spending on military operations in Iran has exceeded $85 billion.
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