Karabakh returned to elections: why Pashinyan is losing the support of voters

Just three weeks before the parliamentary elections in Armenia, the rating of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party dropped below 18%. Even the summit of the European Political Community, for which the leaders of 50 countries came to Yerevan, did not help. The ruling "Civil Contract" is now inferior to the "Strong Armenia" bloc led by businessman Samvel Karapetyan. Against this background, Pashinyan's own words became an additional risk: at a meeting with voters, he stated that Karabakh had never been Armenian. How this may turn out for the prime minister and whether he will be able to retain power is in the Izvestia article.

The course for elections

Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7. Residents of the country will vote for party lists, not for individual candidates: Yerevan abandoned the so-called "rating" system before the last election campaign five years ago.

The main feature of the current vote is the first scheduled elections since Nikol Pashinyan came to power. In 2018, they were held ahead of schedule — after the Velvet Revolution, and in 2021 - against the background of a severe political crisis after the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan over Karabakh. This is partly why the current campaign is already being called a test of the strength of the entire course that the prime minister is promoting.

A total of 17 parties and two blocks submitted applications for participation. At the same time, forces advocating closer cooperation with Russia are playing a significant role in the election campaign. The leader of the Armenia union, ex-president Robert Kocharyan, previously called the authorities' policy of worsening Yerevan's relations with Moscow an "adventure." The head of the Strong Armenia bloc, billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, has also repeatedly stressed that Russia remains a "friendly" country for the republic.

These statements run counter to the position of the authorities, who, on the contrary, defiantly emphasize the policy of rapprochement with the EU.

The ratings may still change before the elections, but so far the balance is clearly not in favor of the ruling party. According to the SAEAS Focus poll, only 17.8% of respondents are ready to vote for the "Civil Contract", while the "Strong Armenia" bloc is supported by 20.6%. Even more alarming for the authorities is the distribution of votes among voters who declared their readiness to come to the polling stations: in this case, the united opposition receives 46%, while Pashinyan's party receives only 18%.

So far, this is the latest data. It is noteworthy that the measurement was carried out almost immediately after the summit of the European Political Community, which was held in Yerevan on May 4-5. The forum was supposed to be a demonstration of international support for Pashinyan's course. Its main outcome was a joint declaration, in which the meeting was called a "historic milestone in deepening relations" between the republic and Brussels.

However, judging by the same survey, the forum did not bring any political bonuses: the prime minister's personal rating dropped to 11%, and the level of distrust in him reached 79%.

However, electoral research data differ markedly. For comparison, in the February IRI poll, Pashinyan and Civil Contract had 24% support, while Strong Armenia had only 9%.

What happened

The current campaign has already become one of the most scandalous in recent years. Politicians accuse each other of surrendering national interests, and the Karabakh issue has once again become one of the main issues in the election campaign. Pashinyan insists that if the opposition comes to power, a new war with Azerbaijan cannot be avoided.

Disputes over territories have already led to several high-profile episodes. First, the prime minister got into an altercation with a woman in the subway, who noticed that his brooch with the image of Armenia did not have Karabakh on it. Then Pashinyan went even further and actually questioned the region's affiliation.

"They say we have lost our lands. But how were these lands ours? How were they ours? Please explain: how were they ours?!" he said. According to the prime minister, the territories were "under the control of several generals" who used them for personal purposes.

This is a particularly risky topic for the ruling party. There is still a strong sense of the incompleteness of the Karabakh issue in Armenian society. According to a survey conducted by the Yerevan-based "Ararat" Foundation last year, 62.8% of respondents believed that this problem had not yet been solved. 87.5% agreed with the statement: "The loss of Artsakh is temporary, we must strengthen our army and regain what we have lost."

Against this background, every new conflict around Karabakh gets an additional resonance. But the prime minister himself adds fuel to the fire. In particular, on May 18, Pashinyan once again found himself in the center of a scandal at a meeting with voters, where he sharply responded to a woman who had lost her brother in Karabakh. "You are escaped geeks, take off your masks, I will bend down and destroy you all," he said.

Such attacks play into the hands of the opposition. They present the prime minister not as a guarantor of security, but as a politician who first allowed the loss of the region, and then began to reconsider the historical attitude towards it.

At the same time, the claims against the authorities are not limited to Karabakh. During the eight years of Pashinyan's rule, discontent has accumulated around internal issues, from the quality of management to personnel policy. The prime minister promised to cleanse the country of nepotism and corruption, but key government posts are increasingly occupied by officials loyal to him without sufficient relevant experience. For example, former history teacher Suren Papikyan was appointed Minister of Defense. The former teacher has no military background.

Another example is the appointment of Hrant Dzhilavyan as deputy head of the Foreign Intelligence Service in 2024. Prior to that, he was not associated with intelligence and worked in the human rights field, including in the office of the Ombudsman.

A separate reason for criticism was the pressure on the opposition. Despite Pashinyan's statements about the democratic course, several of his political opponents were immediately prosecuted. Samvel Karapetyan is under house arrest on charges of calling for the overthrow of the constitutional order. Robert Kocharyan also remains under political pressure: Pashinyan himself has publicly stated that he "must sit" in the case of the events of March 1, 2008.

The balance of power

When analyzing the possible outcome of the elections, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of Armenian politics. Even the most unfavorable forecasts for the government may not materialize: the ruling party still has an administrative resource, high recognition and, according to Izvestia's interlocutors, a serious financial advantage.

— The "Civil Contract" is now stronger than most competitors. This is reflected in the amount of funds that Pashinyan directs to promote the party. According to rumors, it could be more than $50 million. In this sense, only Karapetyan's bloc is able to compete with him, although he spends less on the campaign. The rest of the parties compensate for the lack of resources with the personal authority of their leaders, but so far they can claim only 8-10% of public support," Artur Avakov, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the National Academy of Political Sciences, told Izvestia.

According to experts, it is too early to talk about Pashinyan's failure. Moreover, the survey data is noticeably different. Sociologists who are considered more loyal to the government give the "Civil Contract" about 35% and above, while studies that are more often referred to by the opposition estimate support for the ruling party at about 18-20%. However, even by these measures, the "Civil Contract" remains one of the most popular political forces in the country.

At the same time, the main problem of the opposition is that none of its parties yet looks capable of single-handedly forming a government. The Strong Armenia bloc is either closely approaching the ruling party or is 10-15% behind it. But even in a more favorable scenario for the opposition, it is more about strengthening its position in parliament than about a guaranteed change of power.

— But even in the event of a victory for Pashinyan's party, a sharp reversal of foreign policy should not be expected. In the foreseeable future, Armenia will not join the EU, will not leave the EAEU and, most likely, will formally remain a member of the CSTO, although its participation in the organization may continue to remain frozen. Yerevan has neither a full-fledged alternative to relations with Russia, nor serious reasons for their complete rupture. It's one thing to talk about the European course, and it's quite another to rebuild the entire security, economic and logistics system of the country," Avakov said.

Political analyst Ilgar Velizade also believes that the victory of the ruling party remains the most realistic scenario. Although with a weakening of its position.

— It is difficult to make forecasts now, but most likely the "Civil Contract" will still win the elections. However, the party may not get a constitutional majority. Pashinin has many chances to win, but the opposition and its capabilities should not be discounted either. Everything is quite complicated and ambiguous, so the elections themselves will dot the I's," the expert concluded.