Military flights: How are the Americans going to fight Iran again

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have reached an impasse due to impossible demands - the United States has already pulled about 60 fighter jets to the Iranian borders. The head of the White House is intensifying aggressive rhetoric: Donald Trump promises to destroy the regime in the Islamic Republic, which in response threatens to destroy all American bases in the Persian Gulf. Experts believe that the United States will resume strikes, since neither side is ready to make concessions. At the same time, a military operation can begin within 24-72 hours. What to expect from it and how Iran can defend itself is in the Izvestia article.

Why did the Middle East negotiations fail

Contacts between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, are increasingly stalling — the positions of the parties remain irreconcilable, and tension continues to increase. After a meeting with his national security team, Trump renewed his threats, promising to launch new strikes against Iran. "They better act fast, otherwise there will be nothing left of them," he wrote on the Truth Social network.

The Pentagon, according to CNN, has already prepared plans for military strikes in case Trump decides to resume attacks. Among the targets are Iranian energy facilities and other infrastructure. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by threatening to destroy all US bases in the south of the Persian Gulf.

Now both sides are making impossible demands. At the same time, over the past month, Iran and the United States have exchanged plans for a peaceful settlement several times, but the process has not moved forward.

According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai, Tehran conveyed its comments to the United States through Pakistan in response to Washington's adjustments to the conflict resolution plan. The Iranians' new plan contains 14 points, Tasnim news agency reported. Earlier, they insisted on lifting sanctions, paying compensation for damage caused by military strikes and their sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. In response, according to media reports, Washington imposed its own conditions on Tehran, refusing any payments and demanding that 400 kg of enriched uranium be exported from Iran to the United States. The Islamic Republic should also have only one active nuclear facility, and the issue of ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, will be resolved through negotiations, the White House insists.

The reason for the failure of diplomacy lies in the intransigence of the positions of both sides, who do not hear and do not listen to each other, explained Farhad Ibragimov, a political scientist and lecturer at the Economics Faculty of the P. Lumumba RUDN University.

— The Americans do not give any guarantees about the lifting of sanctions, that Iran will not be attacked again in the future, as it was in June last year and in February-March this year. Iran understands that all this is futile, and puts forward conditions to the United States that, in Washington's opinion, look absurd," the expert said.

The Iranians are now using the Strait of Hormuz as their main leverage. Media reports say that Tehran wants to create its own insurance system for commercial vessels. It is assumed that companies will purchase digital policies from Tehran for cryptocurrency — this should guarantee safe passage through the strait. In addition, the Islamic Republic has started talking about plans to charge foreign companies for using fiber—optic cables at the bottom of the strait - huge volumes of Internet traffic pass through them between Europe, Asia and the Persian Gulf. If Western corporations refuse to engage in dialogue, the Iranian side threatens to damage the network.

At the same time, the situation in the region remains explosive. Saudi Arabia accused Iran of carrying out strikes on its territory — the kingdom intercepted three drones. The Monarchy reserved the right to retaliate. The Iranians categorically deny their involvement in the attack. UAVs also invaded the UAE's airspace — one of the drones struck an electric generator near the Baraka nuclear power plant.

What might the new US operation against Iran look like?

Meanwhile, the United States is deploying military aircraft with weapons to the Middle East. It is obvious that Washington is going to launch a new campaign against Tehran, Farhad Ibrahimov is sure.

— There is a 90% chance that the United States will launch it, otherwise they simply would not have concentrated a large number of forces. However, I am sure that they will not be able to achieve much," he stressed.

Since Trump has not achieved any results with Iran, he will decide on a third round of war, American scientist Alexei Chernyaev added in an interview with Izvestia. But Washington needs to conduct a full-scale ground operation to achieve the goals set by the White House, Ibragimov believes. However, this will require the sacrifice of thousands of American soldiers, which is very risky in the run-up to the November congressional elections.

Russia is concerned about another escalation in the Middle East, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.

— When United States military aircraft begin to be deployed to a particular region of the world, this should be argued by the US administration. I do not know if they did it or not, but it is necessary to closely monitor the development of the situation. There is nothing joyful or charming about it. We will analyze the situation," he said.

The main forces of the US Navy are now concentrated in the Arabian Sea. Since April 13, their main tasks have been to blockade Iranian ports and escort ships. The nuclear aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H. W. Bush are on duty to the southeast of the republic. In total, there are more than 20 warships in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, including Arleigh Burke-class missile destroyers and covertly deployed submarines. All of them are equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

According to military expert Dmitry Kornev, the United States has assembled forces near Iran's borders, ready for a large-scale air campaign. The basis of this power consists of two aircraft carrier groups carrying about 50-60 F/A-18 fighters, F-35 aircraft and E-2 Hawkeye long-range radar detection systems. The naval potential is enhanced by two amphibious assault ships with marines and another 14-17 destroyers escorting them, which significantly enhance their strike capabilities.

The United States may also deploy a network of ground bases. For example, Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti airbase hosts at least 60 F-15 and F-35 combat aircraft, as well as dozens of tankers.

— The entire group is covered by air defense systems/ABOUT Patriot and THAAD with updated ammunition. The Pentagon has paid special attention to protection against massive drone attacks, for which tactical aircraft have been equipped with high—precision APKWS missiles," he said.

The United States will rely on an international coalition. Israel will actively participate in the campaign, and the key monarchies of the Persian Gulf will support the Americans. According to Kornev, such a scenario can be implemented within the next 24-72 hours. However, one should not expect active participation of NATO or individual European countries.

— Tehran has about half of the original arsenal of ballistic missiles left — about 1 thousand. The stock of kamikaze drones of the Shahed type is estimated at 1.5–2 thousand units. Iran is guaranteed to use several hundred drones in the very first days of the clash, and the rest of the array will be used sparingly to deplete the enemy's air defenses in a protracted war, the expert explained.

Tehran's main vulnerability remains the shortage of launchers. Nevertheless, in the event of an attack, Iran will predictably respond with strikes against US bases in the Gulf, Israeli territories and Arab countries that support Washington. It is possible that Hezbollah will enter the conflict with renewed vigor — a truce is in effect now, but Israel and the Shiite movement regularly accuse each other of violating the silence regime. In addition, there are also the Yemeni Houthis, who have already expressed their readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to international shipping as a sign of Tehran's support - this transport artery separates the Arabian Peninsula from Africa.

The result will be a complete destabilization of the Middle East and a shock effect on the global economy. A new round of escalation could trigger the largest energy crisis in history. There will be a risk of global inflation and recession. According to media reports, business losses from various countries have already exceeded $25 billion due to the war in the Middle East. We should not forget about the food crisis, which may worsen due to a shortage of fertilizers. As a result, it's not just about economic problems, but about a real humanitarian catastrophe.

Moreover, it should always be remembered that two countries that have nuclear weapons are fighting against Iran, although Israel has not officially confirmed or denied their existence. Earlier, Trump's statements hinted at the possibility of using weapons of mass destruction. Many analysts, including American professor Jeffrey Sachs or Canadian historian Margaret McMillan, warn that a large-scale war with Iran could trigger a chain reaction that would go far beyond the region.